It's official: Biden will commit to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions 50-52% below 2005 levels by the end of the decade. He'll make the commitment at 8am EST today as the virtual climate summit with world leaders kicks off. nytimes.com/live/2021/04/2…
This goal is almost double the commitment the Obama Admin set for 2025 (25-28% below 2005) and requires accelerating the pace of emissions declined observed over the last decade. See below for progress to date (via @rhodium_group). 2030 goal requires ~3,200 MMT CO2 equivalent.
Making this goal a reality will require steep reductions in fossil fuel use across all sectors.
We'd have to virtually eliminate coal from power generation by 2030, ramp up clean sources (to more than double today's share), and cut electricity emissions to 75-80% below 2005.
EV sales & internal combustion vehicles efficiency need to soar. UMD estimated we'd need EV sales to reach 40% of light duty and 15% of medium and heavy by 2030 while the efficiency of gasoline cars and trucks keeps rising.
More would be needed in industry, buildings, land use.
The Biden goal is more ambitious than trajectory in @Princeton Net-Zero America study, which applied straight-line emissions constraint reaching 0 by 2050. That permitted 57% of 2005 in 2030 and 44% of 2005 in 2035, so crossing the 50% mark circa 2032/33.
This is a couple years faster than the Net-Zero America study trajectory. We did not optimize our trajectory, just applied a straight line to 2050. So Biden's 2030 pledge is consistent with the path to net-zero emissions. For more on what that looks like: NetZeroAmerica.princeton.edu
It is important to note that while the changes required to get on path to net-zero are transformative, they are affordable and achievable, we found in the Net-Zero America study. The incremental cost through 2030 is modest (less than 3%) and balanced by health benefits.
Getting on the path to net-zero will mean mobilizing on the order of $2.5 trillion in additional capital investment in clean energy and climate solutions this decade. That's not a cost, it's an investment, paid back over time. Incremental expenditures on energy are <$300b we est.
Finally, for more on the kinds of policies that could mobilize that capital, ensure a just transition and put us on path to net-zero, see @theNASEM report, Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S Energy System that I was part of: nap.edu/resource/25932…
/End.
PS links to the resources referenced in this thread:
A federal judge temporarily halted completion of a 102-mile high voltage transmission line that would connect dozens of renewable energy projects to the grid, at the behest of three environmental groups. 🤦♂️ reuters.com/sustainability…
At issue: Driftless Area Land Conservancy, National Wildlife Refuge Association & Wisconsin Wildlife Federation sued to block a land swap approved by US Dept of Interior that would add 35 new acres of land to a wildlife refuge in exchange for 20 acres crossed by the line Come on!
I wonder where @audubonsociety @nature_org & @NWF are at on this project. They've done a lot to help keep a more balanced perspective on broad benefits of transmission to connect clean electricity resources and local environmental impacts.
At long last, proposed #hydrogen tax credit rules are out. Industry reactions are in. While opponents of climate-friendly rules continue to complain, stakeholders from across the industry endorsed the proposal & are prepared to unleash investment in a truly clean H2 sector. A🧵⤵️
The Biden admin resisted a torrent of intense lobbying from big industrial players like the utilities NextEra & Constellation, oil majors like BP & Exxon, fuel-cell maker Plug Power, & their trade-group proxies, which spent millions on ads & lobbying to weaken the hydrogen rules.
If you’ve read about electric vehicles in the news lately, you know the vibes are all bad. The media has fixated on the idea that consumer demand for EVs is “slowing." But the data shows that just not true, as I explain in a new @Heatmap column heatmap.news/electric-vehic…
If we take a look at actual sales data (as I did here ), there’s NO sign the growth in EVs is flagging. In fact, sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the third quarter exhibited the strongest year-on-year growth since the Q4 2021! anl.gov/esia/reference…
Putting aside plug-in hybrids, which have shorter electric range and retain a gasoline engine, sales of purely electric vehicles have been steadily increasing at ~60% annual growth rate for each of the last six quarters. That’s fast enough to double EV sales every 14 months.
In the past two weeks, I think EVERY media outlet has written a story w/headlines like "EV sales are slowing" or "automakers are pulling back" from EVs. All present recent developments as a major setback. But are they? Are they really slowing? Is this 'red alert' moment? A 🧵...
What does it mean that EV sales are "slowing"? Year-on-year growth rates have been ~60% in each of the last several months. That's a rate fast enough to double sales in about 18 months. It's hard to see growth that fast as "slowing" sales.
The best (and only) quantitative evidence presented for the dominant media narrative is this data, as presented in a WSJ piece yesterday here: dealers for traditional OEMs (Ford, VW etc) are taking more time to move EVs off the lots wsj.com/business/autos…
It's not a disaster. These offshore projects getting cancelled now all signed fixed price long-term contracts several years ago, pre-pandemic & then got clobbered by unexpected interest rate hikes and cost inflation that made the projects financially unviable.
Developers tried to pass along costs to states (NY MA NJ) & their electricity consumers, and for the most part were rebuffed. State agencies basically said "No, a contract is a contract and we cant start renegotiating or any future contract wont be worth the ink it's printed on."
I happen to think that's a perfectly reasonable decision. These states will have to re-contract for new projects. In fact, NY just inked another 4 GW of contracts from three new projects after rejecting attempts to hike cost of a couple of previously contracted projects.
Important🧵from BNEF expert @CoreyBCantor ⤵️
It's been a rough few weeks of news on US EV transition. But there's also QUITE a lot of groupthink and sensationalism. Seems like everyone in the press decided this week the EV transition was dead and consumers "dont want EVs." Yet...
We risk conflating a *slow down* in incumbent automaker's EV ramp up plans -- GM, Ford, VW & Honda specifically -- with the broader market, which is still growing robustly, about 50% year-on-year according to @CoreyBCantor, despite serious headwinds from high interest rates.