#Idlib: Ansar Al Islam released a video mostly from Idlib & Latakia. It seems that they have taken a similar route to Ansar al Tawheed, specialising in the use of certain weapons- in this case HMG/cannon, RCL, Thicc Grads, AGS-17, and mortars.Interesting developments spotted. 1/
Video starts with the use of SPG-9 RCL at range against various targets. A fighter (Armed with an AK-74) explains the use of this weapon, and a loading and firing sequence is shown. A PG-9 (Probably Bulgarian) can be seen being loaded. 2/
We then see the SPG-9 (Plus SPG-9DM with wheels removed) used. Seems to be fairly accurate, although of course the video is very selective. Some more shots of the use of SPG-9- seems that they are fairly experienced in this. PG-9 has a ~1.3km effective range. 3/
Some more shots of the use of SPG-9- seems that they are fairly experienced in this. 4/
Video then moves on to the use use of mortars- here we see 120mm M75 and 82mm M69 pattern mortars, using Bulgarian OF-843B pattern ammo in the former case. Seems some was made in 2012. This is quite expected for the area. 5/
V. interestingly, seems that Ansar al Islam now use drones for observation/targeting of mortar fire (Pic 1 & 2) as well as filming from range (Pic3). In 1 & 2, a small outpost is hit; appears that at least 1 man is killed. Drones greatly assist w/ fire correction & propaganda. 6/
Next, the part you all care about; Thicc Grads. Like other groups (HTS, Ansar al Tawheed, etc) AaI also use 9M22U-pattern rockets with greatly added explosive load. The launching sequence can be seen- note fairly suble launch spot. Very big boom, but inaccurate. 7/
Various other launches of IRAMs can be seen, including one that's probably easily geolocatable. Designs vary. Ansar al Islan also uses a Type 63 (Or Iranian copy) 12 tube 107mm MRL, not very common locally nowadays. 8/
Next, HMG and Autocannon. As with everyone else in Idlib, they use W85 and DShKM HMG, plus KPV (ZPU-2) and ZU-23-2 autocannon. Ammo/guns are pretty clean, but little to note here tbh. I suspect their stocks of large stuff are limited. 9/
Then we see the use of AGS-17 Automatic Grenade Launcher against various positions. These have been supplied to SAA in big quantities and have also proved popular with their opponents as the conflict goes on. Note VOG-17M ammo with VMG-M fuzes. 10/
Something new here; seems they use the AGS-17 at night, and film impacts using magnified rifle-mounted thermal optics (I circled them)- this is a first on camera, but would aid with the low light effectiveness of AGS-17 uses. 11/
Overall, this was a very interesting video; while 90% of is to be expected, the use of drones and thermal optics is fairly new. Not a huge surprise however. Innovatiosn like this are how small groups like Ansar al Islam can incease the damage they cause for fairly low cost.
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Oh, and if you like threads like this, which took up all my lunch time > ko-fi.com/CalibreObscura 🤠
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One aspect that many miss RE:AA FPV UAV is that these are a reaction to a lack of MANPADS, particularly those not from the Cold War.
Sure FPV can work, but if every AFU unit had plenty of LMM or Starstreak, esp. w/ extended range, the need would be met much more efficiently.
The innovation shown in 🇺🇦 is excellent, lessons learned should be diffused into other allied militaries, but we shouldn't fetishize systems that have developed because of specific local conditions. Some of the situation now is because the AFU has not been efficiently resourced.
Ofc, as the drones develop, they will become more and more like MANPADS. The cost will rise, especially as features such as passive radar/ELINT targeting become more common than they already are.
I am not bashing what Ukrainians are doing, I'm just pointing out the reality.
According to some local reports & the ISIS claim, the attackers withdrew successfully. They will have communicated with IS-K/Central, poss. including videos/images of them carrying out the massacre.
They are still at large. This is exactly what security forces don't want.
Usually they don't manage. But if your security forces don't arrive for an hour, this can happen. So they can sleep, rearm, and do it again. Inghimasi don't expect to survive, so for them this is a bonus.
When they kill these guys, they will find a phone with either SMS, WhatsApp, Telegram or maybe Viber msgs to an account with a central asian or Afghan number. That account will have been assisting, directing & encouraging them live. Non-0 chance US SIGINT can see said messages.
Your reminder btw, because I know people will be doing it, deaths of civilians is never, ever to be celebrated. I hope the vermin who carried this out are slotted with all rapidity
From the video: At least 5 men with AKs, probably 74s. Can't see PBIED, although given IS-K to be expected. This is worse case, nightmare scenario stuff that Western forced worry about and train for constantly.
No, not doing any ID, it's not healthy for the mind and soul
Random thoughts on the al Qassam footage from the IDF ground incursion in no particular order.
Firstly- Clear that the en mass production of the "Yassin" PG-7VR copy was a very sensible decision. This was the most achievable way for them for them to create a potent anti....
armour weapon, with good penetrative capabilities against IDF armour. Even more sensible was the adoption of the main warhead of the Yassin (Essentially the same as a PG-7L) as a static charge IED. That way, the same production line(s) could be efficiently used to boost..
..al Qassam et al anti-armour capabilities in a simple to use package. So far, this seems to have been effective, although the daring IED-placing rambo probably wasted his actions, as the directional charge wouldn't have gone in the right...direction.
This is not *why* I am leaving all of this, but rather just some notes to whoever might find them useful.
Why does someone do the stuff I have? Why does someone write thousands of words and spend so many hours?
It's because yes, you enjoy it, but it makes you feel like you are making a positive difference. But then it starts feeling like a job, a job that gives you no earnings.
Then you find that dozens, if not hundreds, of organisations, companies, large (evidently revenue earning) accounts, YouTubers etc, are very, very happy to use your expertise and your time, and *will not* compensate you for it. Sometimes you get credit, which is nice.
Something I didn't say in November that I think now- this stuff has a deeply personal tinge. The Ukrainians are targeting people because they see them as guilty of assisting in their (attempted) genocide. This is Mossad in the 60s, and they are only just starting.
Sensible people in European security circles should be thinking about how to manage and mitigate a service absolutely willing to go kinetic on their soil in five or ten years when some of the Russian men who were Bucha or Mariupol manage to get to Germany etc
So much analysis of this misses the personal factor.
Why wouldn't you target the people who wanted to turn you into a literal footnote of history?