Michael Dempsey argues that after the pro-Asad forces roll over Deraa, Idlib is next, and then comes the east, against the U.S. partner, the #SDF/#PKK, unless the U.S. does some creative thinking and stays invested. <Some comments below> warontherocks.com/2018/07/what-d…
I am not sure that #Turkey will stand aside in Idlib. Dempsey is right that the Turks' presence is "limited" but as a military-political matter (calling it a "red line", coping with an influx of 2m refugees plus terrorists, space it gives to PKK) Ankara needs to hold its ground.
On the Asad Alliance side, yes, if Asad/Iran decide to attack #Idlib, Russia can do nothing and will join in. Even so, assuming Turkey does not fold, it's not clear the regime coalition has the capacity for this offensive. Perhaps it does, but that shouldn't be an assumption.
The Syrian Army agreed with the Russian suggesting to ship all Syrians refusing to reconcile with the government to #Idlib: green busses (or whatever colour it is going to be) are prepared to go to #Daraa#Syria.
Over 100 busses are reaching #Daraa to carry over 1500 Jabhat al-Nusra aka Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and their families who rather stay under Turkish control the north of #Syria.
The #Damascus-Amman road is clear and safe now and Naseeb crossing is expected to reopen soon.
Syrian Army is clearing up east of #Daraa where the Russian Military police is tasking position.
The enormous quantity of weapons recovered by the Syrian army is filling up the army's warehouses, thanks to Arab and the west generous donations to Jihadists
#Israel should be happy to have the Syrian Army back on the borders in Assuweida-Daraa-Quneitra as it was the case for thirty odd years without any significant incident,rather than protecting uncontrollable salafi-Wahhabi radicals who can wake up from one day two another & attack
The war in Syria is almost over: #ISIS will continue attacking (with no strategic purposes like in #Iraq), #Idlib and al-Hasaka are considered under occupation forces. Now the Syrian government can call for general elections any time in liberated #Syria
If the #USA is worried about south #Syria ops it means the establishment is afraid of #SAA's success. Obviously, #SAA took eastern Ghouta with 35K jihadists and the south today has with 20k-25k jihadists & FSA and the geography is much easier.
Actually, the #USA has nothing to do in the south of #Syria. the area is not part of US national security nor it affects #US citizens or interest. It is #Israel that is extremely worried about #SAA regaining demarcation line with #IDF.
#Israel is aware #SAA and its #NDF have gained enough experience and is afraid the long 30-40 years of "peace on the borders" is over: #Damascus next step after the war will be the #GolanHeights, an area rich of oil and exploited by #US companies.
#Assad on the #SDF: we share much in common, including profound mistrust of the Americans, we are going to negotiate with the SDF, if no negotiations, we are going to liberate by force, with or without the Americans in the picture (around min 12)
#Assad: #Israel is panicking because it lost its dear ones, #alQaeda/#Nusra. Both targeted our air defenses, Israel & #US inflicted some loss, but thanks to #Russia, the situation is getting better. Recent attacks by the Americans, English and French prove this point.
Thread on Compulsory Syrian Military Service: This has arguably been one of the most important social & Eco issue that has confronted every Syrian male for decades (since the uprising it has become even more critical. This note will call for the need to PUT AN END TO THIS POLICY
2-Currently, military service is mandatory for all Syrian males over the age of 18. Students can delay their service while males who who are only sons are exempt from military service. Men may also be exempt from military service for medical reasons. There are other exemptions
3-Syrians born outside of Syria and residing abroad until the age of 18 can pay for exemption. Syrians born in Syria, but who left Syria before reaching the age of 11, have their own fee. In effect, there are various fees ranging from $500 to $8500 depending on person's situation
BREAKING: The White House has said that US President #Trump is canceling his upcoming South America trip to remain in the US "to oversee the American response to Syria." - @NBCNews
This sounds like the US is planning to strike #Syria and Trump will remain in the US to closely monitor responses by #Russia. This is terrible.
BREAKING - British forces are now mobilizing at their bases in #Cyprus for strikes against #Syria. It appears very likely that the US, France and U.K. will strike Syria in the next 24 hours. This is dreadful.
The first busses carrying hundreds of "Jaish al-Islam" and members of their families are leaving NOW #Duma. The beginning of clearing #Damascus. #Syria.
626 "Jaish al-Islam" militants/families have left #Ghouta towards #Aleppo - #Jarablus . The evacuation is slow because the Syrian Army wants to make sure the 100s of millions (JAL requested to take away $900 m but the request was rejected) r not taken away
Jaish al-Islam is expected to join the fight against #AQ & other Jihadists under #Turkey flag in the city and rural #Idlib where #Ankara is planning to eliminate those who don't obey its agenda. #Russia threatened #Idlib if #AQ remain in it, strong.
THREAD on #US, #Russia in #Syria:
1.This is getting serious:RUS Chief of Staff says US been preparing sabotage groups at Al Tanf to stage checmical attacks to serve as pretext to attack SYR. According to #Moscow, some of the subversive groups already transferred to #FSA positions
2.MoD claims some chemicals,dozens of detonating fuzes disguised as packs of cigarettes been delivered to town of Dariya. More staged attacks being planned in towns of Al Ghabid, Qalb Loze 25 km NW #Idlib to where 20 containers of chlorines been delivered.
3.Massive info campaign beign prepared to accompany the provocations to pin the blame on #Assad,#Russia.MoD says #Moscow sees "Signs of preparations for possible strikes. In eastern part of Mediterranean,Persian Gulf,Red Sea cutting edge of sea-based cruise missles being deployed
THREAD: The full story of Syria's #Raqqa 'The Capital of Liberation' from the uprising until the devastation:
Raqqa is the Syrian city, situated northern eastern Syria. 1970s the Euphrates dam was built and turned the poor small town of Raqqa into a city.
During the evolution process of Syria, Raqqa's share of development projects was small & most of the resources were stolen by Regime's officials and the state budget was being stolen by Hafiz Assad and his loyal elite. Therefore Raqqa city remained one of the poor cities of Syria
THREAD on #Russia's stance in Eastern #Ghouta:
1.#Putin convened a National Security Council meeting today to discuss the situatiion,;directed all RUS agencies involved in #Syria abide by the 2401 #UNSC Resolution, emphasized "terrorists [in the area] continue their provocations"
2. Despite the UN vote #Moscow stands firm in its position:Western media campaign around East #Ghouta is "crocodile tears","they been silent on militants shelling of #Damascus for 2 years now that #SAA,RU go after militants (yes,not only HTS)everyone suddenly cares for civilians"
3.Yet the scale of humanitarian tragedy demanded urgent action.The decision to let civilians out seen as temporary fix since many radicals will flee along w/ them, amass in other parts of town,thus humanitarian tragedies where radical shild w/ civilians doomed to repeat
#Syria: for over two years the people of Maarat al-Numan have protested continuously against Jabhat al-Nusra (& synonyms #JFS, #HTS).
Now the city together with the whole Jabal al-Zawiya region of #Idlib are freed of jihadists, thanks to local #FSA & #JTS
#Syria: as #JTS and #FSA forces are also advancing around Atarib (W #Aleppo) and Maarrat al-Misrin #HTS is at risk of being split into two separate pockets. One east of the M5 highway and the other in the region between #Idlib city and the #Turkey border
#Syria: meanwhile #HTS is trying to counter the rebel offensive throughout "greater" #Idlib by attacking the town of Batabo, located just west of Atarib
#Idlib: #ISIS has entered rebels held area in southern #Idlib after heavy clashes with #SAA forces. Simultaneously #IS tries to advance to the north, towards #SAA held Abu Dali & towards Rebels held positions in southern #Idlib.
#SRO | HISTORY | CHRONOLOGY | The freedom for #Sarmada | #Idlib | #Syria :
- April to december 2011 : protests in the city.
- February 2012 : army fire on protesters in city center.
- March 2012 : first clashes with #FSA locals.
- May 2012 : army withdrew from city (1).
- May 2012 : army transforming city north square, Bab al-Hawa square, into fortress.
- May 24, 2012 : #UNO visited city (under local council control)
(July 19, 2012 : fall of Bab al-Hawa border post to #FSA)
- August 15, 2012 : #FSA take over Bab al-Hawa square : Sarmada is free.
ADD. : Army resisted one month in the Bab al-Hawa square of Sarmada but was forced to withdraw in August 15, 2012 because #Atarib had already fallen (east on the #Aleppo road). This moment is historical as border area between Atarib and #Turkey was under #FSA for first time.
#SRO - As Encyclopedia about to be finished (after 5 years of hard work, on more than 3200 groups fighting in #Syria), some chapters will present some important battles (or symbolical) during the war (1).
#SRO - One of the most important will be "Maarakat al-Furqan", the codename of the huge operation led by Liwa al-Tawhid that led to the capture of most of southern and eastern areas of #Aleppo city itself between July 21 and August 22, 2012 (2).
#SRO - Many forget this codename. July 21, 2012, AbdulQader Saleh and Abdulaziz Salameh announced the beginning of a huge battle to "free #Aleppo under codename "Maarakat al-Furqan". (3).
Just about a fact that all of us knew about for weeks : the massive withdrawal, without important losses for rebellion factions, frm E-#Idlib was well prepared by #Turkey (1).
Wer'e going to see now frontlines to stabilize with regime to concentrate firepower on Liwa al-Aqsa [Wilayat Hama] remnants and rebels to fortify M5 side under #Turkey new "border posts" (2).
! IMPORTANT ! For those caring about Fuah - Kafraya pocket : just remember, contrary to previous years, no one of rebellion factions, including hardline #HTS or #TIP fired on this pocket last weeks despite losses east... (3)
#Afrin Offensive: following weeks of #TSK reinforcements near border with #Syria but also in Syria itself (N. #Aleppo & N. #Idlib), #FSA-led National Army started also to mobilize. Multiple convoys moving.