Thread on status of Syrian Opposition post the "demilitarized zone" agreement in #Idlib . Thus far, most commentary has regarded the deal as a win for the Opp since risk of imminent strike on the province has been avoided. But is this deal really a positive for opp? Answer: No=>
2-Let's step back first. This is an Opp that was formed with goal of toppling the State (diplomatic language of Geneva process called it political transition). Nothing short of above was acceptable to this opp. As of yesterday, mere avoidance of strikes is now seen as a win
3-Let's not also forget that from early days of Geneva's political transition talks, the only political activity left now is an attempt to establish constitutional committee. All else has been shelved. Now that we established the general status of the opp, let's discuss this deal
Thread listing Preliminary observations on the announcement of the “Demilitarized Zone” in #Idlib today: What does it mean for Turkey, Russia, Damascus and the armed groups? What is the likely risk/reward calculus for each party? What should we expect going forward? ===>
2– Let’s recap what we seem to know first: A zone 9-12 miles long would be established by Oct. 15. It would contain no heavy weapons or extreme elements of the insurgency (al-Qaeda-linked militants). It would be be patrolled by Turkish and Russian forces
3-First critical point to note is whether this deal will end up securing the highway that passes through Idlib and links the north and south of the country under Govt control together. This was of course one of the strategic aims of Damascus from any #Idlib operation
For the record, while everyone seems to believe that the number of civilians in #Idlib is close to 3 million, a Damascus source who has been very prescient in the past believes that the actual number may not exceed 1 million.
2-To suggest that 3 Million civilians live in #Idlib is to suggest:
A-That pre-war housing stock & other infrastructure was able to accommodate double the pre-war population
B-Moreover, safe to assume both housing & infrastructure now nowhere near pre-war conditions/capacity
3-In effect, for #Idlib to host 3 Million now compared to 1.2-1.5 pre-war is to assume either a building boom (not war) or construction of massive camps that would host such massive numbers. Yet to see credible images of such camps or investments in the housing stock
Even Jihadists who became " Turkish proxies moderate rebels" are criticising the showing off of al-Nusra, aka HTS, of its flags and jihadists during yesterday's manifestation in the Turkish controlled area of northern #Syria.
Foreign Fighter the Emir Abu Abdallah al-Iraqi (from #Iraq), Emir of Sheikh Ali and western rural #Aleppo#Syria, has arrested several people who refused to rise al-Nusra (HTS) flag in #Idlib manifestation.
I terroristi delle Milizie Libero invadono i due villaggi cristiani vicini Qunaye e Yacoubiye assaltando gli uffici pubblici uccidendo la polizia e terrorizzando gli abitanti usati scudi umani #Idlib#Sapevatelo#NonViDicono#IdlibLibera
#Siria🇸🇾 Fine 2013
Terroristi #IS prendono il controllo dei villaggi cristiani Qunaye e Yacoubiye rompono le croci delle chiese impediscono il suono delle campane, impongono il velo alle donne e divieto di circolazione ai civili #Idlib#Sapevatelo#NonViDicono#IdlibLibera
#Siria🇸🇾 Dal 2014 sotto l’occupazione dei Terroristi dello Stato Islamico #IS fuggono tanti giovani e famiglie dei villaggi cristiani Qunaye e Yacoubiye e i tagliagola con loro famiglie occupano loro case e terreni #Idlib#Sapevatelo#NonViDicono#IdlibLibera
1) Back in 2015 #Idlib was Syrian Governement stronghold.
On 24 of March of 2015 a Jiahdist Alliance started their offensive on the city
They called themselves Army of Conquest ( جيش الفتح/Jaish al-Fatah)
As I feared and tracked, #RIAH [#Russia-#Iran-#Assad-#Hezbollah] is going to kill a lot of #Syrian people in #Idlib with CW and without CW then falsely claim that RIAH is innocent, its CW as well as all its killing is fabricated.
Why I am saying this?
I clarify in this thread
1/ #RIAH [#Russia-#Iran-#Assad-#Hezbollah] prepared #Idlib Ops almost to perfection. But every criminal commits a mistake which exposes his crime. And RIAH committed a huge mistake. But first let me dive into RIAH's criminal mind.
2/ I grew up in war in #Lebanon and witnessed it, it took me time in retrospect to understand what happened. The disinformation campaign by Assad was huge I'll explain few things so that you understand RIAH's modus operandi and psychological warfare, its raison d'etre and effect.
So it seems #Idlib ops (divided into 3 stages) has been moved for a further date, giving me enough time to close the Iraqi news and return to #Syria, soon.
#Turkey failed to integrate al-Nusra, aka Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham, within rebels army (it might succeed at a certain point); failed to isolate al-Qaeda (Hurras el-Deen) & foreign fighters, incl Chinese Uyghur jihadists. So Erdogan turned against the #EU
Short THREAD on #Russia - #Turkey divergences over #Idlib as seen from #Moscow: 1. In early August I described rationale behind RU positon & that "certain level of understanding reached w/ TUR that there should be no [large-scale] offensive on Idlib [then]"almon.co/338t
2.I recently reached out to the same senior RUS diplomat who reiterated #Moscow's bottom-line desire to settle the issue peacefully except for terrorists organization who he argued #Turkey too agreed to fight as part of AStana agreements.Yesterday,RU #Syria envoy Lavrentyev..
3. .alluded to #Russia's growing displease w/ #Ankara's inability to deliver upon its committments in the area that, as Lavrentyev said"is kind of their zone of responsibility."Instead,#Erdogan writing op-eds,trying to enlist support from #West/ern partners over #Idlib which is..
Why are we siding with AlQaeda re: #Idlib#Syria?
Idlib is the last rebel held stronghold in Syria and the Assad regime is preparing to take it back. Worry over 3 Million Idlib residents fleeing to Turkey seems to be main concern. AlQaeda control #Idlib
"On Monday the WSJ reported that *unnamed US officials* now claim to be in possession of intelligence which they say shows Assad has already given the order to conduct a chlorine gas attack in unprecedented level! Eerily like WMD Iraq War zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-1…
“Moderate rebels played a key role in Turkey’s fight against terrorists in Northern #Syria; their assistance and guidance will be crucial in Idlib as well”
2-Erdogan: “Preventing the assault on #Idlib need not set back counter-terrorism efforts. Turkey has succeeded in fighting terrorist groups, including ISIS and the PKK, without harming or displacing civilians”
Notice how he doesn’t include Nusra /al-Qaeda in above group
3- Erdogan: “Turkey’s ability to maintain order in Northern #Syria is proof that a responsible approach to counter-terrorism can win hearts and minds”
Muhammed Najem was in Ghouta saying the exact same things before Assad liberated that part of Syria from Jihadist "rebels". This teenager is taking selfies for propaganda purposes and shame on Al Jazeera for participating in this. #Idlib#IdlibDawn#IdlibOffensive #HandsOffSyria
A big part of the Russian-led disinformation campaign surrounding Syria is psychological warfare designed to condition people not to care when Russian/Syrian forces slaughter civilians. One of the main ways this is accomplished is by portraying those targeted as terrorists. 1/
These are just a few examples from this week. Right now, Assad & Putin are targeting #Idlib, which is home to 3 million people, many of whom fled to the province when they were forcibly displaced from their homes. Now they're all being portrayed as terrorists. 2/
Often, Russian govt officials will claim to have knowledge of some "terrorist" plot in the region being targeted, and they use that as an excuse to destroy entire towns and kill, injure and/or displace the civilians who live there. 3/
We are past the point of no return in #Syria. Not taking direct military action against the Assad regime as it proceeds to carry out its extermination campaign in #Idlib & the rest of Syria, is complicity to genocide and puts us squarely on a direct war path with Russia and Iran.
Pretending that Russia and Iran can be appeased by allowing the #Assad regime to commit genocide in #Syria is a lethal mistake. Striking the Assad regime decisively and militarily will halt the Russian & Iranian war march towards Europe & Mediterranean. Diplomacy has not worked.
We are already at war with Russia + Iran. Pretending that allowing Assad to live is somehow going to change that fact is simpleton nonsense blanketed in immorality masked as "anti-war" sentiments that condone genocide, torture, and the erasure of international law & human rights.
The narrative being pushed today by the Russian govt is that "terrorists" (or "jihadists") met w/ the White Helmets, a humanitarian org, to finalize a plot to stage a chemical weapons attack on...themselves.
Putin/Assad have made similar claims before launching a chem attack. 2/
Per usual, Russian propaganda channels promptly got to work spreading the disinformation peddled by Russian govt officials. (Important to remember that people are more likely to believe false claims when they hear them from multiple sources.) 3/
..the idea for the summit was to get a deal where all the 3 can secure their bottom-line interests.They didn't fully achieve it since there will be another round of trilateral talks (some time in the future in #Russia) and the parties hope to settle #Idlib issue in #Tehran but..
..(a) #Turkey maintained credibility of the oppoaition (by that good cop-bad cop thing #Erdogan & #Putun played), (b) #Russia got his promise to deal w/ those attacking #Hmeymim (c) #Ankara received time to settle the major task of assorting militants (d)..
- Turning his back on #Iran's 2009 uprising
- Allowing Assad gas innocent civilians in #Syria
- Selling off America's Middle East allies
- Bending over backwards to reach a highly flawed #IranDeal with Tehran's mullahs
Need I say more?
(2) What I remember about President Obama:
"the Obama administration derailed an ambitious law enforcement campaign targeting drug trafficking by the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah"
"Two high-level Iranian government backers, including a former Islamic Republic official and another accused of lobbying on Tehran's behalf, were hosted at the Obama White House for more than 30 meetings..." freebeacon.com/national-secur…
At #TehranSummit Erdogan asked Russia&Iran to allow time so Syrian opposition groups can surrender. This was agreed by Rouhani and Putin. Rouhani:"Mr Putin we should allow all the groups to surrender and give up their arms[as Mr Erdogan mentioned]." Putin:"Yes, absolutely."
Today Erdogan was humiliated by Putin again. Erdogan asked Iran&Russia to change the 3rd clause of the agreement but his request was refused by Putin: "No.We(indirectly he meant Erdogan)aren't representatives of the terrorist groups." #Russia and #Iran used #Turkey to gain more.
Erdogan wanted ceasefire in #Idlib in the statement/agreement, However Putin and Rouhani said: We would agree if Syrian opposition groups lay down arms and surrender.
Erdogan lost the game.He has no back up plans/allies as he has betrayed US and Turkey is all alone.
I will publish one the parts which proves that #Russia's #SAA's staged #ISIS video in which they also mention that ISIS will commit CW attack in #Idlib. Here I amplified what SAA is telling him at low voice what to say.
In part II
SAA: who gave you weapons?
(Important: You can hear a third person telling him to say: AlAmerkan)
Then the pseudo-ISIS says: Ma.... [he wanted to say Ma ba3ref = I dont know, but corrects it and says: AlAmerkan Sidi (The American Sir)
SAA: Say it loud and clear
SAA Russia culminate the lies
Pseudo #ISIS: A group of ISIS photographers was sent to #Idlib to stage an attack, CW & I dont know what.
In other words, there wont be a real CW attack, all is staged by ISIS photographers, no one will die, its all a movie. Good to know eh
Francona: #Syria would be insane to use chemical weapons in the assault on #Idlib governorate. Bashar al-Asad knows using chemical weapons will draw a military response from the United States, France and possibly the UK.
It’s hard to understand the absurdity, but it appears that as long as you only use barrel bombs, artillery, rockets, and missiles to kill, it is deemed almost acceptable, but cross that line and use chemicals, the ire of the world demands a military response. So why use them?
There is no military reason for the Syrians to use chemical weapons. With #Russia|n airpower, artillery, and rocket and missile strikes, combined with #Iran|ian and Hizballah support on the ground, the Syrian military has the required force to reassert control over Idlib.