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Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Idlib

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Michael Dempsey argues that after the pro-Asad forces roll over Deraa, Idlib is next, and then comes the east, against the U.S. partner, the #SDF/#PKK, unless the U.S. does some creative thinking and stays invested. <Some comments below> warontherocks.com/2018/07/what-d…
I am not sure that #Turkey will stand aside in Idlib. Dempsey is right that the Turks' presence is "limited" but as a military-political matter (calling it a "red line", coping with an influx of 2m refugees plus terrorists, space it gives to PKK) Ankara needs to hold its ground.
On the Asad Alliance side, yes, if Asad/Iran decide to attack #Idlib, Russia can do nothing and will join in. Even so, assuming Turkey does not fold, it's not clear the regime coalition has the capacity for this offensive. Perhaps it does, but that shouldn't be an assumption.
Read 5 tweets
The Syrian Army agreed with the Russian suggesting to ship all Syrians refusing to reconcile with the government to #Idlib: green busses (or whatever colour it is going to be) are prepared to go to #Daraa #Syria.
Over 100 busses are reaching #Daraa to carry over 1500 Jabhat al-Nusra aka Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and their families who rather stay under Turkish control the north of #Syria.

The #Damascus-Amman road is clear and safe now and Naseeb crossing is expected to reopen soon.
Syrian Army is clearing up east of #Daraa where the Russian Military police is tasking position.
The enormous quantity of weapons recovered by the Syrian army is filling up the army's warehouses, thanks to Arab and the west generous donations to Jihadists

Read 7 tweets
Amid #Assad regime offensive in south #Syria, worth bearing in mind its continued bombing of areas in #Idlib - also under a so-called “de-escalation zone.”

Having watched the southern zone dissolved w/o response from #Jordan or #Israel, #Turkey’s now warning #Idlib = “red line."
#Turkey has deployed its own armed forces to x12 “observation posts” fencing in opposition areas & enforcing de-escalation.

#Russia seems invested in stability in #Idlib - but for how long?

After #Deraa, will #Assad & #Iran destroy the last remaining “de-escalation zone”?
For now, expect periodic regime bombing raids & notably, also ‘spoiling’ attacks by fighters unrestrained by #Turkey’s iron grip.

#HTS will remain internally divided on de-escalation -- the more regime bombings, the heavier the pressure for #HTS to respond = #Assad opportunity.
Read 8 tweets
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#Israel should be happy to have the Syrian Army back on the borders in Assuweida-Daraa-Quneitra as it was the case for thirty odd years without any significant incident,rather than protecting uncontrollable salafi-Wahhabi radicals who can wake up from one day two another & attack
The war in Syria is almost over: #ISIS will continue attacking (with no strategic purposes like in #Iraq), #Idlib and al-Hasaka are considered under occupation forces. Now the Syrian government can call for general elections any time in liberated #Syria

The last remaining pocket is expected to fall slowly but surely. It might take some time after the US-Russia summit next month to agree on removing #ISIS (Jaish Khaled bin al-waleed) from Quneitra.

Civilians living in #Idlib will think carefully.

Read 6 tweets
As expected, the #Assad regime - supported by #Russia & yes, #Iran-backed militias - is well into a pre-planned offensive vs. opposition-held areas in S/SW #Syria.

= Violating de-escalation zone agreement & with little/no word/response from the opposition’s foreign backers.
#pt: At least one pro-#Assad Shia militia group overtly backed by #Iran/#IRGC -- Liwa Zulfiqar -- has publicly proclaimed its ongoing role in the offensive in south #Syria.

No word or response from #Israel, as yet.

[via @hadialbahra]
@hadialbahra #pt: The U.S’s impotent role in #Syria has again been revealed for all to see & exploit…

June 21: @StateDept threatens “serious repercussions” for any offensive in the south.

June 23: @USEmbassyJordan tells FSA 'we don’t have your back' [via @AbuJamajem]

June 25-27: Silence.
Read 22 tweets
If the #USA is worried about south #Syria ops it means the establishment is afraid of #SAA's success. Obviously, #SAA took eastern Ghouta with 35K jihadists and the south today has with 20k-25k jihadists & FSA and the geography is much easier.
Actually, the #USA has nothing to do in the south of #Syria. the area is not part of US national security nor it affects #US citizens or interest. It is #Israel that is extremely worried about #SAA regaining demarcation line with #IDF.

#Israel is aware #SAA and its #NDF have gained enough experience and is afraid the long 30-40 years of "peace on the borders" is over: #Damascus next step after the war will be the #GolanHeights, an area rich of oil and exploited by #US companies.

Read 7 tweets
#Assad: we didn't send people to #Idlib, they wanted to go to Idlib because all these groups have the same incubator and ideas. (around min 5) rt.com/news/428299-as…
#Assad on the #SDF: we share much in common, including profound mistrust of the Americans, we are going to negotiate with the SDF, if no negotiations, we are going to liberate by force, with or without the Americans in the picture (around min 12)
#Assad: #Israel is panicking because it lost its dear ones, #alQaeda/#Nusra. Both targeted our air defenses, Israel & #US inflicted some loss, but thanks to #Russia, the situation is getting better. Recent attacks by the Americans, English and French prove this point.
Read 24 tweets
I will share an analyse about upcoming Battle of #Dara
Preparations of the #SAA continue in #Dara region. #SAA #FSA #Syria #ISIS #HTS #Syrianrebels
Huge battle is coming.
The first target of the campaign against opponents will probably be the el #Lajat plateau , which threatens the supply line to the #SAA controlled #Dara city.
Read 38 tweets
Thread on Compulsory Syrian Military Service: This has arguably been one of the most important social & Eco issue that has confronted every Syrian male for decades (since the uprising it has become even more critical. This note will call for the need to PUT AN END TO THIS POLICY
2-Currently, military service is mandatory for all Syrian males over the age of 18. Students can delay their service while males who who are only sons are exempt from military service. Men may also be exempt from military service for medical reasons. There are other exemptions
3-Syrians born outside of Syria and residing abroad until the age of 18 can pay for exemption. Syrians born in Syria, but who left Syria before reaching the age of 11, have their own fee. In effect, there are various fees ranging from $500 to $8500 depending on person's situation
Read 14 tweets
BREAKING: The White House has said that US President #Trump is canceling his upcoming South America trip to remain in the US "to oversee the American response to Syria." - @NBCNews
This sounds like the US is planning to strike #Syria and Trump will remain in the US to closely monitor responses by #Russia. This is terrible.
BREAKING - British forces are now mobilizing at their bases in #Cyprus for strikes against #Syria. It appears very likely that the US, France and U.K. will strike Syria in the next 24 hours. This is dreadful.
Read 182 tweets
#BreakingNews:
The first busses carrying hundreds of "Jaish al-Islam" and members of their families are leaving NOW #Duma. The beginning of clearing #Damascus. #Syria.
626 "Jaish al-Islam" militants/families have left #Ghouta towards #Aleppo - #Jarablus . The evacuation is slow because the Syrian Army wants to make sure the 100s of millions (JAL requested to take away $900 m but the request was rejected) r not taken away
Jaish al-Islam is expected to join the fight against #AQ & other Jihadists under #Turkey flag in the city and rural #Idlib where #Ankara is planning to eliminate those who don't obey its agenda. #Russia threatened #Idlib if #AQ remain in it, strong.
Read 9 tweets
THREAD on #US, #Russia in #Syria:
1.This is getting serious:RUS Chief of Staff says US been preparing sabotage groups at Al Tanf to stage checmical attacks to serve as pretext to attack SYR. According to #Moscow, some of the subversive groups already transferred to #FSA positions
2.MoD claims some chemicals,dozens of detonating fuzes disguised as packs of cigarettes been delivered to town of Dariya. More staged attacks being planned in towns of Al Ghabid, Qalb Loze 25 km NW #Idlib to where 20 containers of chlorines been delivered.
3.Massive info campaign beign prepared to accompany the provocations to pin the blame on #Assad,#Russia.MoD says #Moscow sees "Signs of preparations for possible strikes. In eastern part of Mediterranean,Persian Gulf,Red Sea cutting edge of sea-based cruise missles being deployed
Read 9 tweets
THREAD: The full story of Syria's #Raqqa 'The Capital of Liberation' from the uprising until the devastation:
1-History:
Raqqa is the Syrian city, situated northern eastern Syria. 1970s the Euphrates dam was built and turned the poor small town of Raqqa into a city.
During the evolution process of Syria, Raqqa's share of development projects was small & most of the resources were stolen by Regime's officials and the state budget was being stolen by Hafiz Assad and his loyal elite. Therefore Raqqa city remained one of the poor cities of Syria
Read 38 tweets
THREAD on #Russia's stance in Eastern #Ghouta:
1.#Putin convened a National Security Council meeting today to discuss the situatiion,;directed all RUS agencies involved in #Syria abide by the 2401 #UNSC Resolution, emphasized "terrorists [in the area] continue their provocations"
2. Despite the UN vote #Moscow stands firm in its position:Western media campaign around East #Ghouta is "crocodile tears","they been silent on militants shelling of #Damascus for 2 years now that #SAA,RU go after militants (yes,not only HTS)everyone suddenly cares for civilians"
3.Yet the scale of humanitarian tragedy demanded urgent action.The decision to let civilians out seen as temporary fix since many radicals will flee along w/ them, amass in other parts of town,thus humanitarian tragedies where radical shild w/ civilians doomed to repeat
Read 8 tweets
#Syria: for over two years the people of Maarat al-Numan have protested continuously against Jabhat al-Nusra (& synonyms #JFS, #HTS).

Now the city together with the whole Jabal al-Zawiya region of #Idlib are freed of jihadists, thanks to local #FSA & #JTS
#Syria: as #JTS and #FSA forces are also advancing around Atarib (W #Aleppo) and Maarrat al-Misrin #HTS is at risk of being split into two separate pockets. One east of the M5 highway and the other in the region between #Idlib city and the #Turkey border
#Syria: meanwhile #HTS is trying to counter the rebel offensive throughout "greater" #Idlib by attacking the town of Batabo, located just west of Atarib
Read 6 tweets
NEW - #Ahrar al-Sham & Nour al-Din al-Zinki have merged, creating Jabhat Tahrir Souriya, branded with “green” revolutionary flag.

- Ahrar leader Hassan Soufan = leader
- #Zinki leader Tawfiq Shahbuddin = deputy

“JTS” calls on other groups to join for greater unity.
#pt: What does “JTS’s” formation mean?

- Unlikely to be a full merger, but closer Ahrar-Zinki coordinating ties have been clear for months.

- Northern #Syria’s two biggest non-#HTS factions are compiling (with Syrian Islamic Council backing) pressure on #Jolani & HTS.
I’m told that x4 sub-factions of #HTS have agreed to join the newly formed Jabhat Tahrir Souriya (#JTS) and at least x5 others are negotiating possible terms.

#Syria #Idlib
Read 67 tweets
Missiles launched over #Damascus; Rockets over the Golan Heights and a drone downed over #Israel: all in the last hour.

Israel said it is "an #Iranian drone". If that is the case, it is a "forced reconnaissance" to exhaust the Israeli defence system, #Hezbollah's style.
#Breakingnews:
#Israel F-16 downed by what seems to be #Syria air defence system
#BreakingNews: Private source
All Syrian military and intelligence and their allies (#Hezbollah) positions in #Syria and #Lebanon on full alert
Read 25 tweets
#Idlib: Reports that #IS has launched a wide scaled counter attack in eastern #Hama tonight & is now just 15km away from Rebel held territory. See more upadtes on @EasternMediafax
Unconfirmed: #ISIS took over the following villages after clashes with #SAA in E. #Hama CS:

- Shutayb
- Duma
- Al-Shawi Palace
- Al-Rubdah
- Shutayb

wikimapia.org/m/#lat=35.4396…
#Idlib: #ISIS has entered rebels held area in southern #Idlib after heavy clashes with #SAA forces. Simultaneously #IS tries to advance to the north, towards #SAA held Abu Dali & towards Rebels held positions in southern #Idlib.
Read 5 tweets
#SRO | HISTORY | CHRONOLOGY | The freedom for #Sarmada | #Idlib | #Syria :
- April to december 2011 : protests in the city.
- February 2012 : army fire on protesters in city center.
- March 2012 : first clashes with #FSA locals.
- May 2012 : army withdrew from city (1).
- May 2012 : army transforming city north square, Bab al-Hawa square, into fortress.
- May 24, 2012 : #UNO visited city (under local council control)
(July 19, 2012 : fall of Bab al-Hawa border post to #FSA)
- August 15, 2012 : #FSA take over Bab al-Hawa square : Sarmada is free.
ADD. : Army resisted one month in the Bab al-Hawa square of Sarmada but was forced to withdraw in August 15, 2012 because #Atarib had already fallen (east on the #Aleppo road). This moment is historical as border area between Atarib and #Turkey was under #FSA for first time.
Read 3 tweets
#SRO - As Encyclopedia about to be finished (after 5 years of hard work, on more than 3200 groups fighting in #Syria), some chapters will present some important battles (or symbolical) during the war (1).
#SRO - One of the most important will be "Maarakat al-Furqan", the codename of the huge operation led by Liwa al-Tawhid that led to the capture of most of southern and eastern areas of #Aleppo city itself between July 21 and August 22, 2012 (2).
#SRO - Many forget this codename. July 21, 2012, AbdulQader Saleh and Abdulaziz Salameh announced the beginning of a huge battle to "free #Aleppo under codename "Maarakat al-Furqan". (3).
Read 4 tweets
#SRO | ANALYSIS - Strangely (or not), the only important group inside rebellion factions in N-#Syria to be sceptical about #Turkey use of rebels is... #HTS (1).
#SRO | ANALYSIS - Despite escorting here and there some #Turkey vehicles, #HTS became, slowly, the main defender of the #Syria rebellion independance... (2).
#SRO | ANALYSIS - So, don't be surprised to see #HTS still being important in hearts in #Idlib : many aren't so happy to become #Turkey new annexed territory... (3).
Read 5 tweets
Just about a fact that all of us knew about for weeks : the massive withdrawal, without important losses for rebellion factions, frm E-#Idlib was well prepared by #Turkey (1).
Wer'e going to see now frontlines to stabilize with regime to concentrate firepower on Liwa al-Aqsa [Wilayat Hama] remnants and rebels to fortify M5 side under #Turkey new "border posts" (2).
! IMPORTANT ! For those caring about Fuah - Kafraya pocket : just remember, contrary to previous years, no one of rebellion factions, including hardline #HTS or #TIP fired on this pocket last weeks despite losses east... (3)
Read 6 tweets
In case you forgot - the #Assad regime continues to use chemical munitions on civilian areas.

This morning, a chemical gas attack hit the besieged #Douma suburb of #Damascus - mostly women & children affected.

A similar attack hit Douma 9 days ago. #Syria
Civilian vehicles, packed with furniture & personal belongings, were targeted by regime strikes today, as civilians fled bombing in SE #Idlib.

This is #Assad’s “war on terrorism.” See for yourself. #Syria
#Russia & #Assad launched a huge escalation in bombing in #Idlib over the weekend - 150+ airstrikes reported yesterday alone.

Multiple hospitals destroyed and this Neo-natal unit evacuated.

Heartless, criminal violence.

Read 14 tweets
#Afrin Offensive about to oppose:
- Turkish Army (#TSK) & National Army (ex-#EuphratesShield, mainly #FSA)
- People/Women's Protection Units (#YPG/J) + allies & #Syria|n Democratic Forces (#SDF)
#Afrin Offensive: following weeks of #TSK reinforcements near border with #Syria but also in Syria itself (N. #Aleppo & N. #Idlib), #FSA-led National Army started also to mobilize. Multiple convoys moving.
#Pt. National Army (incl. #FSA 23rd Division) preparing for #Afrin Offensive (#AfrinOp) near border with #Turkey.
Read 243 tweets
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