Avg holding period is below 1 year and most of returns come from price action so one could argue that capital gain tax increase 20->50% makes stocks 60% more expensive.
Add corp tax increase that'll eat chunk of earnings and multiply all by already highest valuations ever. #SPX
Don't know if historically lower/negative GDP growth in periods with higher capital gains tax is coincidence or not, but basic logic would agree that there is less incentive to invest with higher taxes.
According to this chart one could notice that realized gains (as % GDP) tend to rise before an increase and after a decrease in max tax rate on LT gains.
And this leads us to this...
As max rate on LT gains increases, less taxes are being paid. Might be due to increase in holding period as selling is delayed. So, it seems as a gimmick to try to get as many as possible to postpone the selling... Any other logical explanation ?
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