UPDATE - I am exiting my position in $CTT.AX, Cettire.

When I wrote it up CTT, it was $1.18 and it is now $1.86, so its +58% in < a month...obvi the px is higher and now ~12x EV/GP, ~3.5-4x EV/S (fwd) on my numbers...still not really too expensive on the numbers but...
...the majority of the comp set has compressed (as growth names have traded off); brokers have initiated coverage/non-Aussie funds have started to get involved (which was key catalyst here); and importantly my thread prompted lots of good analytical feedback re the biz...
...some of which I could answer but some of which I could not. I still don't totally understand why $CTT.AX has to win...and I am at least incrementally concerned that a good chunk of the outsized growth was COVID-related...
This is NOT an indictment of the long-term opportunity (still clearly massive) but looking at other Aussie ecom names like $RBL.AX, $KGN.AX that have been obliterated on some normalization, I don't want to get complacent...
....and it has generated a huge excess return in a v short time.

Thanks again to @SharogradskyM for bringing the name to my attention, ofc i cont to follow and may well get involved again. thanks also to all who commented on the thread, I learnt a lot. I ♥️ Fintwit!!

GLTA 🙏

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More from @puppyeh1

23 Apr
Following up here. Amerigo Resources $ARG.TO, ref spot has a mkt cap of $155mm (USD). As we speak net debt should be near zero...
...they treat tailings from El Teniente (Codelco mine) in Chile, a v good jurisdiction for copper (obvi)...

Per the co's own slide deck at current spot ($4.25/lb) this is a $65mm+ EBITDA biz...altho I think this guidance is conservative...
...anyway this $65-70mm EBITDA turns into >$50mm of FCF ($6mm maint capex, $5mm int expense etc which will decline post refi; ~5-10mm more in corp G&A and some W/C reversal)...all against a $155mm mkt cap and (now) no net leverage. So 3x unlevered FCF basically...
Read 9 tweets
17 Apr
This is obvi a v illiquid stock traded OTC so not for everyone...but prob worth noodling on a little more. $GLXZ

👇👇
@OtterMarket hits nail on the head, pre-COVID this was a $9mm EBITDA biz w 20% EBIT margins and pretty decent historic FCF generation.

Makes sense - they own their own content and just take a piece of casino hold on tables where they're games are installed...
iGaming is kind of a hidden tailwind, post PGP acquistion its maybe 20% (?) of the rev pool but growing rapidly. They are plugged in w some REAL heavy-hitters like $EVO tho and in general its kind of a stealth play on iGaming adoption...
Read 10 tweets
22 Mar
I took a deep dive into Cettire, $CTT.AX, after reading this interesting tweet from @SharogradskyM.

You all know I'm not a 'growth bro' but for the life of me I can't work out why $CTT.AX is so cheap. It seems mispriced, by a factor of 50-100%....here's why 👇👇

THREAD
Cettire is an online platform for luxury goods. They connect w/ offline suppliers (dept stores, wholesalers, etc - NOT the brands directly) to sell products online. $CTT.AX holds no inventory; their ERP connects directly w their suppliers. They function just as the shopfront...
...whilst all product/inventory risk remains w the supplier.

The biz operates worldwide (in 53 countries), w/ 90% of revs being outside Aus (despite the Aussie listing)...here's the main page:

cettire.com
Read 25 tweets
17 Mar
Seeing as peeps are asking what UK shitcos I own to monetize this trend, here's one I'll throw out there: $CARD.LN. It's been written up in the public domain - see this excellent blog post: dkvalue.blogspot.com/2021/02/card-f…

basically the point is its at ~4.5x pre-COVID EPS...
...w/ a ton of leverage, I know. but 80% of weddings got cancelled in the UK last yr; 70% of card purchases are discretionary around events; and two of their biggest comp went bust during COVID and closed a bunch of their stores...
...so basically you have a hyper-levered play on eventing/gifting, trading at a v low multiple of (probably) too-low earnings over the next 1-2yrs. At 10-12x P/E and some earnings improvement the stock is near-triple. Even at 10x P/E and just pre-COVID erns its a near double...
Read 6 tweets
14 Mar
The $DKNG analyst day slides were quite something. I have no idea how anyone can own the stock at a ~$32bn EV and expect anything other than a HORRID risk/reward the next 5+ years...the math is pretty simple. let's take a peak 👀

THREAD
They disclosed their LT EBITDA 'guidance' as $1.7bn - based upon a fairly rosy set of assumptions but basically 65% penetration of OSB, 30% pen of iGaming, then just rolling forward another 5yrs 🤣. Ie this EBITDA number, even if actualized, is prob a 7-10yr aspiration:
So today we get to pay ~25x 7-10yr forward maybe adjusted EBITDA. Nice 🤪🤪

It gets worse. How do they actually get to this number? Well they try to size the market at maturity, using UK, Aus, and the more mature NJ market...
Read 9 tweets
10 Mar
Here’s everything you need to know the $AER deal for GECAS sucked bigly in one thread.

1) This is NOT ILFC. When AER bot ILFC in 2013 they went up to 5x levto buy an asset at a lower multiple of book, at much lower absolute valuations on the fleet, w a much better order book...
...they also had an equity currncy trading well above book to pay for it. Basically diametrically opposed to today’s deal (higher book multiple; worse order book; less leverage; own currency trading at a discount)
2) fleet mix: AER took a predominantly narrow body, newer, mostly new tech fleet and diluted it w widebodies, older lanes, and current tech (oh and helis and freighters!) Exactly the things Aengus railed against, for years.
Read 7 tweets

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