Bulletproof Beancounter Profile picture
Apr 23, 2021 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
I updated my prospect process to "define" the process over the past several months

I imported the grades into my ADP trends database

I define a faceplanter as losing more than 12 spots in startup ADP from May to May per @DLFootball ADP

Here's the last few classes

Lets Dive In
2019 was a super weak class
2018 had some major star power.
NINE bulletproof players in round 1 of 2017. That is absurd.
2016 was such a hilariously weak class.
2015 had some pretty some strange stuff happening. All of the bad players gained value and then with the exception of a fluke season by DeVante Parker they all went on to bust in epic fashion.
2014 was a special as it looked at the time. And gave us easily the most bizarre Generational prospect of all-time.
The things I learned...

1) Bulletproof+ is both bulletproof in terms of production AND yr1 value gains.

2) bad prospects gain value at a remarkable rate after yr1 to then come crashing down to earth shortly thereafter. IE, hope springs eternal.
Remember that face planting is basically a fantasy death sentence. That is a key part of my sophomore comps and plays a big role in my rankings on Patreon.com/BulletproofFF

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More from @DFBeanCounter

Dec 13, 2023
I am firmly in the spin the wheel category at the QB position, meaning if you do not have a franchise QB, you simply move mountains trying to get one.

This is why.

This is each teams number of playoff appearances over the past 10 years. Image
There have only been 6 teams that have been to the playoffs in 60% of the past 10 seasons.

That is an alarmingly low number. That could be noisy simply because of the sample selected being the past 10 years.
However of note, of those 6 teams, their quarterbacks for large portions of that stretch were:

Patrick Mahomes
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Ben Roethlisberger
And some combo of Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts.
Read 19 tweets
Dec 5, 2023
Some transparency for y'all.

These are my sophomore comps from my January 10th, 2023 thread on my Patreon regarding the 2022 WR class.

Drake London Image
Garrett Wilson Image
Chris Olave Image
Read 19 tweets
Aug 31, 2023
One of the best ways to win fantasy football championships is by rostering the RB that breaks out out of nowhere

This is a hard feat to pull off as there are approximately 3700 options

I would like to introduce you to one of the bets that you simply have to make

Sean Tucker. Image
From a size and athleticism perspective Sean Tucker looks the part. Per @rotounderworld in the screen shot above Tucker measured in at a fairly robust 5-9 and 207 pounds while running a 90th-percentile 4.44 40.

We like that very much.
@rotounderworld Was Sean Tucker a one-dimensional runningback in college or was he trusted in all aspects of the game?

As evidenced by his 75th-percentile college dominator and his 95th-percentile target share, it is pretty clear that the offence in Syracuse ran through Sean Tucker.
Read 14 tweets
Aug 24, 2023
Much has been said regarding Quentin Johnston's prospect profile and I've been dying to find the time to dive in with y'all.

So lets do the thing where we in fact, dive in. Image
At 6-3 and 208 pounds Johnston comes in as a prototype.

You might be thinking, 'what on earth is a prototype' and I am here to tell you that you should probably draft prototypes when given the opportunity.

To qualify as a prototype a player must be >195 lbs >5-10 and >26.0 BMI
I won't bore you with the details in this thread, but here is a link to a thread from three years ago outlining some aspects of it.

Read 28 tweets
Aug 21, 2022
If y'all want me to say, "Voldemort has peripheral metrics that suggest that he might be better than the 10% target share and 8 fantasy ppg player that he's been" then Ill admit it.

I am in fact expecting him to have greater than 10% targets and 8 fantasy ppg this season.
There are two things at play here.

#1 - The binary notion of is he "good or evil" at football.

#2 - Regardless of #1, is he a good pick in any format?

So let's take a look at #2.
According to @fantasypros his ADP is 73.

I have skewed this image to show more players below him than above him.
Read 74 tweets
Aug 20, 2022
Drake London.

To bulletproof, or not to bulletproof? That is the question.

Let's Dive In.
We will be putting Drake London through the Bulletproof process to see exactly how good... or bad, of a prospect he really is.
Courtesy of @rotounderworld ultraslick player page we can glean alot about his profile.

First things first. The dude is 6-4 and 213 pounds.

He is a mountain of a man and that qualifies him as a "prototype" in my process.
Read 50 tweets

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