Kit Yates Profile picture
Apr 23, 2021 7 tweets 4 min read Read on X
An update on cases and positivity in the UK.

Overall, still promising news.

Cases continue to fall week on week in England, Scotland and Wales, while there has been a small up-tick in Northern Ireland, but from a low level.
Not yet back down to September levels, but close.
1/7
The slight up-tick in NI is there in the positivity data (positives/tests taken) but it seems to fall off more recently.
England, Scotland and Wales all showing continued falls in positivity and rates below 2.5%

2/7
Cases continue to fall in all English regions.
(Orange dots in week-on-week plot show this week's rate and grey dots last week's)
Some areas (North West) now below September levels (green diamonds) and others (North East) very close.

3/7
Similarly, positivity levels continue to fall in all regions with each area now below 3%.
Biggest week on week fall in Yorkshire and the Humber albeit from the highest level.
Most regions below their September 1st positivity rate.
4/7
At a local authority (LA) level cases fell in 211 of 315 LAs in England and 82 of 315 LAs are now below September 1st levels (green diamonds).
All Scottish LAs are now below 70 cases per 100K.
All Welsh LAs below 30 cases per 100K.
5/7
Some big rises in case numbers in some Northern Irish LAs (Derry & Strabane and Mid-Ulster) but these are not reflected in the positivity data with Mid-ulster showing only a small rise and Derry & Strabane a fall. This indicates some change in the testing in these regions.
6/7
Important to note that data only goes up to 17th of April so we wouldn't expect to see the impact of the 12th of April easing of restrictions in these plots, nor the impact of the return to schools after Easter.
Overall the situation is positive across the UK.
7/7

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More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

Oct 15
After hearing some underwhelming testimony last month at the #COVIDInquiry on the use of respirators, @trishgreenhalgh and I decided to write a rapid response to the @bmj_latest to set the record straight.
Here's what we wrote...
1/15
bmj.com/content/386/bm…
"Respirators outperform surgical masks; fit-testing is desirable but not essential"

Professor Susan Hopkins (UK Covid Inquiry, 18th September 2024) claimed that evidence for the superiority of respirators (which are made to an industry standard and designed to fit ...
2/15
closely around the face) over medical facemasks (which are not generally made to any quality standard and often fit loosely, leaving gaps around the sides) is “weak”.
She also claimed that respirators are of little use if they are not fit-tested.
3/15
bmj.com/content/386/bm…
Read 17 tweets
Jun 25
As the UK’s general election campaign enters its final few weeks, we’ve already seen numerous examples of dodgy declarations, substandard stats and graph gaffs.

So I thought I'd write about the importance of numeracy to the functioning of democracy.
🧵
We can expect to see more questionable claims in the run up to polling day.
The factor that all these all these missteps have in common is that they involve the manipulation or misrepresentation of numerical quantities.
One of the most hotly disputed figures of the campaign so far has been the Conservatives’ claim that Labour’s policies will, as Rishi Sunak put it, “amount to a £2,000 tax rise for everyone”. Labour have rebuffed this figure, arguing that...
theguardian.com/politics/artic…
Read 29 tweets
Jun 13
Politicians will get away with the things we forget, so here is a list of things to remember about the government's record on covid:
1. Over 230,000 died from covid in the UK.
2. They partied while we weren't allowed to see our loved ones. Thousands died alone.
...
3. They were too late taking action in spring 2020.
4. They delayed again in autumn of 2020.
5. They waited until they had no other choice in winter of 2020/2021.
6. They funnelled cash to their mates through the VIP lane.
7. PPE provided to our healthcare workers was inadequate.
8. They failed to heed the warnings in the pandemic planning exercises.
9. The promised a protective ring around care homes and instead sent infected patients to them from hospitals.
There are many more, these are just the most egregious.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 2
A water company released sewage into the stream that runs into the beach where we were holidaying. I didn’t like the idea of swimming in the sea after that, so I tried to sue to water company for spoiling our holiday. This is what happened…
1/21
First up, cards on the table, I am a keen outdoor swimmer. I swim with a group of friends most weeks in our local stretch of the Thames. Come rain or shine, winter or summer, there are usually at least two of our number bracing the river waters north of Oxford.
2/21
We do so cautiously, however, especially in winter when it has been raining heavily and it is almost guaranteed that sewage will have been pumped into the river a few miles upstream.
The giveaway as to whether there has been a discharge or not is the smell.
3/21
Read 21 tweets
Mar 14
It's π-day (3/14 in US date format) - the international day of mathematics.
But people often ask me why π is important. Why do we care about calculating more and more digits?
In short, "What is the point of π?"
Well, here is the answer...
1/
3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937510...
The number of digits after the decimal place in pi extend off into the distance (these are the first 50).
Truncating π's decimal expansion after the second decimal place (3.14) is sufficient to specify the date of pi day.
With 11 digits of π we can calculate the circumference of the Earth from its radius with an error of just a mm.
With 38 digits we can compute the circumference of a circle encompassing the whole of the known Universe with an accuracy to within the radius of a hydrogen atom.
3/
Read 38 tweets
Feb 29
It's leap day - February 29th.

It's a special day - the rarest in our calendar.

But do you know why we have leap days at all and how often exactly they come around?

Read on to find out...
1/21
This exceptional day has been associated with weird and wonderful traditions over the years: from the wildly outdated notion that 29th of February is the only day when women can propose to men, to the Leaper Year festival held in Anthony, New Mexico.
2/21
vox.com/2016/2/29/1113…
As a rule of thumb, leap days come around every four years. But there are exceptions to this rule. For example, at the turn of every century we miss a leap year. Even though the year is divisible by four, we don’t add a leap day in the years that end in 00. But...
3/21
Read 23 tweets

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