Simon Evans Profile picture
Apr 23, 2021 9 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The UK govt has formally issued draft legislation, making its 78% by 2035 climate goal into law

legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2021/978…
It does not (yet) legislate to include international aviation and shipping in the budget, but additional regulations on that will follow

legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2021/978…
for reference, here's Article 30 of the Climate Change Act under which international aviation and shipping will be included

legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/…
The UK's 78% by 2035 target will avoid 6bn tonnes of CO2e over 30 years and will be a net benefit to the UK economy worth £266bn

That's according to the govt "impact assessment" on the measure

legislation.gov.uk/ukia/2021/18/p…
There's a great thread on the impact assessment here from @timbolord

@timbolord Blimey, the UK govt expects the country's electricity system to be 95-99% zero carbon by 2035

That's 14 years from now

Its modelling includes up to 75% from wind and solar alone

legislation.gov.uk/ukia/2021/18/p…
@timbolord Interesting to see that the UK govt does not expect hydrogen to be used widely for heating, in its core modelling pathway to cutting emissions 78% by 2035

(it does model an alternative "high resource" pathway where hydrogen heat is widespread)

legislation.gov.uk/ukia/2021/18/p…
@timbolord A key issue for hydrogen heat is that low-carbon hydrogen isn't expected to be available at scale by the mid-2030s, according to the UK govt

legislation.gov.uk/ukia/2021/18/p…
@timbolord Also interesting to see UK govt modelling finding that blue hydrogen is needed, but only in the "short to medium term" before truly zero-carbon supplies become available at large scale and lower cost

legislation.gov.uk/ukia/2021/18/p…

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More from @DrSimEvans

Jun 25
NEW: UK climate advisers now "more optimistic" net-zero goals can be met

🎯Net-zero "possible" + "good for economy"
📉CO2 halved vs 1990
📈More "credible" policies
🚘🏡EV/heat pumps soaring
But…
⚡"Critical" to cut power prices
✈️Flight CO2 "risk"

1/9 Image
For the first time I can remember, the CCC says its progress report is "optimistic" about UK climate goals being hit. Interim chair Prof Piers Forster says he is "more optimistic" than last yr due to last govt's policies starting to deliver + changes since Labour took office

2/9 Image
Another notable change is that the CCC seems to be getting less prescriptive…

CCC has faced (inaccurate) charges that it has, in effect, set govt policy. But it's now being clearer than ever that it only offers advice – and policy is up to govt.

3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 17
IEA: Oil still on track to peak by 2030; oil for fuel to peak in 2027

"annual growth slows…to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030, based on today’s policy settings and market trends"

Here are some of the most striking charts 🧵
1/8 Image
In recent years, global oil demand has been almost entirely driven by growth in China…

…and that party is now over

Equally, US "dominance" of rising oil supply is also a thing of the past
2/8 Image
Since last year, the IEA has raised its oil demand outlook for the US, due to EV rollbacks etc, but it has simultaneously cut its outlook for China by the same amount

So global demand in 2030 is right where the IEA thought it would be last year
3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
May 15
Could this be the biggest climate story of the year?

For the first time on record, China's emissions are falling due to clean energy growth, not slow power demand

Full analysis + outlook by Lauri Myllyvirta:


1/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
In Q1 of 2025, the clean-energy driven drop in power sector CO2 outweighed small increases in other sectors of China's economy, driving a 1.6% fall year-on-year overall


2/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
The fall in power sector emissions came despite surging electricity demand growth

This is the first time on record that clean energy growth has been sufficient to cut into coal power, without the help of weak power demand


3/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 30
FACTCHECK: Almost all the headlines on Tony Blair / net-zero are *wildly* inaccurate

REALITY:

1️⃣Net-zero is *only way* to stop warming
2️⃣Blair calls for tech to "turbocharge our path to net-zero"
3️⃣He categorically *does not* say "net-zero is doomed to fail"

🧵
1/6 Image
Blair says a "strategy based on either 'phasing out' fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail"

This is logically & categorically not the same as saying "net-zero is doomed to fail"

(If you can't see why, I can't help you)
2/6 Image
Nor does Blair say "current net-zero policies are doomed"

Because literally no govt in the world has a current net-zero policy to "phase out fossil fuels in the short term or limit consumption"

Instead, world's govts agreed at COP28 to "transition away from fossil fuels"
3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 26
NEW: Official advisers CCC say UK shld cut emissions 87% by 2040

⚖️Net cost of net-zero 73% less than thought
💷Total cost to 2050 = £108bn (~£4bn/yr, 0.2% GDP)
🏡🚗H’hold energy/fuel bills to fall £1,400
🔌Electrification is key

THREAD + charts



1/10 carbonbrief.org/ccc-reducing-e…Image
Just so we're clear, let's start with why bother

We're seeing record heat – 100% caused by our emissions – and extreme weather, from floods to droughts to heatwaves

IPCC says net-zero is only way to stop this getting worse



2/10 carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…Image
There’s also the global energy crisis, which hit UK particularly hard due to reliance on imported gas, crushing household (and govt) finances

UK has spent £140bn on gas since the crisis began (!)

Shift to net-zero would massively reduce exposure to intl fossil fuel prices

3/10 Image
Read 17 tweets
Feb 10
THREAD: New UK govt contract with Drax biomass power plant

* 4-yr contract 2027-2031
* £113/MWh (2012 prices – £155 in today's money)
* Output cap of 6TWh (<2% of UK supplies, cf recent yrs 12-15TWh)
* CfD cost ~£500m/yr
* 100% of fuel must be "sustainable", up from 70%
1/5 Image
UK govt says the contract helps security of electricity supplies, but gives Drax a "much more limited role than today" ie it's limited to run at roughly 25% of its max output

This means it's mainly going to be running when it isn't windy


2/5 questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…Image
Drax has had issues with existing 70% sustainable sourcing rule, but as it'll need less than half the fuel it has been buying to date, the new 100% rule looks more achievable

Notably, new contract terms allow govt to reclaim subsidy if rule not met


3/5 bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…Image
Read 6 tweets

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