Thread by @BobLoukas

My $BTC outlook. (Long random thought thread)

Two weeks ago, I expected a continuation of the big bull trend with a possible surge to $80k-$100k into a top for this "current bull run" A mini blow-off, if you will. Was based simply on trend following, repeating Cycles.

But that trend was broken on April 18th and all long leveraged exposure immediately cut.

All spot positions remained open.

It's a bull market, after all.

In fact, we now have our first Failed Cycle since March 2020 and steep trajectory was lost.

Very simply, the rally that started back in October 2020 has more than likely ended.

It also tells me deeper consolidation is unfolding. This is the ebb and flow nature of any market.

The good news is, we've been in a consolidating (distribution too) phase since the Feb 20th highs. We're 8+ weeks into it, even though we've seen slight higher highs.

Goes without saying, there are no absolute in market analysis. I expected one more big run recently, as an example.

BUT...given what we're seeing, the path forward I expect is for a bounce soon to last a week or more. That is coming out of the HALF CYCLE (30 day) area.

But given we have a FAILED #bitcoin Cycle, we should be prepared for the actual Cycle Low to occur towards the end of May, and below the $50k line.

In fact, we have our first Failed Cycle since March 2020. Tells me deeper consolidation unfolding.

At that level, we finally get down below the 21week moving average, an area often revisited in any bull market uptrend.

It does no technical damage to the bull case. It allows for coins to rotate, profit takers to realize their gains and overhead supply to be exhausted.

More importantly, it allows for a deeper sentiment reset, one that is always welcomed in a bull market.

The caveat of course is that in a powerful bull market, the surprises come to the upside. That's why you never lose your base (spot) position. You just never know.

My goal in any bull market is to align my main position with the longer Cycle, in this case 4-Year Cycle and to not be shaken off no matter what.

And use shorter cycle to push the pedal down when favorable and to be defensive when not. Thus the reason for covering on April 18th.

Again, this not prediction, just possibilities I hang my trading narratives on. Quick to shift or even completely flip that view without regard. I listen to and respect the tape, nothing more. Being adaptive is critical and the need to prove yourself right, counter-productive.

The important thing to remember for each of us, what is the time-frame you care about? The capital you allocate, and therefore put at risk, on what time-frame is that risk based off of.

That's what you need to respect. Movements on that time-frame is all that matters to you.

For those worried about an end to the bull market already, I say, VERY MUCH doubt that.

This bull market has been coming light a freight train and I've yet to see anything close to resembling the type of high (top) you expect before a crash.

If you're worried about a major top, then you're probably just in too deep or you had expectations that you could just invest and make millions without ever being tested.

My suggestion remains. Take is easier. Take a step back, focus on the big picture, reign in expectations.

To think there is so much worry out there, with #bitcoin sitting at FIFTY THOUSAND DOLLARS, is very telling itself. It was below $4k a year ago, yet people are scared today.

It's been almost two months since my last #4YearJourney video, so I will begin working on one next week for release.

If you have ideas or questions for the video, let me know.

In theory, nothing at all has changed within that 4-Year Cycle set of analysis, going back 2.5 years. But it might help to reinforce the narrative.

After-all, it's so easy to lose sight of the big picture, when your neighbors are "apparently" getting famously rich. 😉

Out.

Update. 21wma tagged.

No point in being cute with timing so not holding my breath, but if #bitcoin sets up a bear flag, get ready for the last great low risk buying opportunity of this bull market near $42k near end of month. I'd expect a sharp V and a ripping rally.

$BTC - Price objective mostly met, but not the time objective. Day 52 of the Cycle. Sharp selloffs often lead to early cycle lows as sentiment is flushed, but for me the verdict is still out. Not convinced enough pain has been inflicted and lots of buy the dips announced.