When you wonder "why is [NEW FORMAT] suddenly a thing?", the dynamic is always the same. Early advertising is fantastically lucrative. Once the stampede to the format starts in earnest, the margin drops quickly, and the cycle will have to repeat. It's driven by novelty.
The motor on both sides of the ledger is hope. Writers/broadcasters hope they finally found an ad model that pays the bills without being hateful to the audience. Advertisers hope they have found a new model that leads to terrific engagement. But all that's left is a hangover
The long term results are more entrenched surveillance (since every new ad model needs a new story about why it's different and better) and a gold rush culture where nothing gets to put down roots because everyone moves to the next Klondike
Remember when every news site "pivoted to video" a few years back, or when podcast mattress ads took over, or when everything became an app? Same dynamic. The only island of respite and tranquility in this world is Pinboard
The reason I want to add newsletter support to the site is not because I believe in them, but precisely because I don't. That stuff will disappear without a trace otherwise. Archivists walk behind the elephant parade of the New Economy with shovels, trying to salvage what we can
Zooming out, the "chasing new formats" pathology in online publishing is another symptom of too much capital with no place to go. The investors get sold on a dream. Other people act rationally, chasing whatever formats those investors are subsidizing at a big loss for the moment.
As always, the biggest profit is to be made effectively selling new dreams to the investors. It's become a highly refined art form and the great creative legacy of our era. But why is all this surplus money bottled up and useless, instead of in my pocket? That part stymies me.
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"Social audio app Clubhouse will let all six remaining users pay other creators starting Monday."
If Clubhouse's transition from unpaid conference call to 900 number goes smoothly, I look forward to their pivot to making unsolicited calls to potential users around dinnertime, cementing their hold on the 90's nostalgia market.
Clubhouse totally needs a modem channel, where people can type text messages at each other at 300 baud. Somebody please do this.
It's striking how in all the discussion around pulling out of Afghanistan, there's been so little mention in the US media about how Afghans feel about it, or what it will mean for them. South Vietnam learned this lesson the hard way—when America is ready to go, boy do they bail.
There's the sunk cost fallacy—the fact that we've wasted 20 years on a stupid war is more reason to stop it, not less. But there's also an obligation you incur when you occupy a country for that long, to the people whose lives are intertwined with your presence, for good or bad
Missing from much discussion of the Middle East and Central Asia is the fact that it's full of intelligent human beings, with agency not a geopolitical chess board, and maybe talking and listening to them more would be a way out of the senseless futility of the last 20 years
What the covid shot taught me is that every time I've been really sick in my life, it was my immune reaction that was making me feel like death warmed over, not whatever innocent virus I had previously blamed. I feel so betrayed. Why *was* I hitting myself?
The human immune system needs a ground-up rewrite to better reflect the needs of stakeholders. There's a quarter billion years of technical debt in mammalian immune response and it shows in the crufty design. And don't even get me started on blood clotting. Disruptors needed!
If human immunological memory used blockchain we wouldn't need these booster shots
I've gotten a number of replies from customers who tell me they are philosophically opposed to subscription services, but want to support me and would be willing to make periodic donations to the site, especially if I reminded them about it every year or so. 🧐
An observation I made in 2009 still holds true today—people approach a $20 online purchase with the same seriousness, research, and depth of reflection that they would if buying a house or fantastically expensive Italian luxury car
More than one person told me they have to talk it over with their wife, and will make a decision in a few weeks' time. Dude, if converting requires a family meeting and a long, tearful phone call with your pastor, just stay on the one-time plan. You're freaking me out a little.
Our new business model for writers is so sustainable that we're raising $65 million to continue to run it at a massive loss
Substack reminds me of the early days of Blue Apron, where you could get really amazing cuts of meat or fish home delivered at a fraction of their cost because the company was burning money to build market share. The trick is always to know when to get off the Wheel of VC in time
All that's missing from the Substack business model is a feature where, once you get people to sign up, part of the money that comes in from subscribers they bring in later accrues to you