Thread by @biannagolodryga

Some thoughts on what's likely to come next in Russia after Navalny is thankfully getting SOME treatment:
Yes, he has been finally given access to (likely ill-equipped) civilian doctors, leading to the end of his hunger strike.
BUT, here are the realities that lie ahead.. (1/10)

Expect suppression of Navalny's colleagues and supporters at its highest level yet. In labeling them "extremists", officials have legal authority to treat them as terrorists. Early previews include colleagues who have been beaten, jailed for NO reason, and threatened. (2/10)

Expect further suppression of independent media (who have done incredible investigative work). Just today, authorities designated @meduzaproject as a "foreign agent", which makes it that much harder for their work to continue. (3/10)

Even Navalny allies who organized this week's protests acknowledged it might be the last for a while. And while their extremely brave crusade continues, they address the realities that government oppression brings new challenges, and new fears. (4/10)

It makes the turnout Wednesday, which was a last minute scheduled protest, even more impressive. So many Russians (youth in particular) risking dire repercussions, still taking to the streets, demanding not only Navalny's freedom, but their own from Putin. At the same time (5/10)

A recent poll of Russians found 58% are afraid of arbitrariness and lawlessness at the hands of authorities, the highest figure in poll history. It comes at a time of internal frustrations surrounding a stagnant economy, a spike in food prices and a drop in real wages (6/10)

According to the same pollster, (Levada Center) the number of people who expect economic protests in Russia is up from 26% last yr to 43%. In an attempt to stem economic decline, COVID cases are underreported, unmitigated (unless as an excuse to ban opposition meetings), (7/10)

And just over 5% of Russians have received their first vaccine shot. Putin has introduced some incentives such as tax credits for children, but that's not much, and it comes just months before September's parliamentary elections (where his party isn't polling well). (8/10)

While troops along the Ukraine border are pulling back, it has proven to be a tactic that has garnered global attention, and Putin could very well do it again. True, sanctions aren't crippling, but they are damaging, and Navalny will continue to be a problem for him (9/10)

In sum, what Putin believes are the biggest threats to his regime still exist, which makes him more unpredictable. The west should continue to effectively pressure him re Navalny and other bad behavior, and not overly reward him for what likely are temporary walk-backs. (10/10)