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Bulletproof Beancounter

Apr 24, 2021 • 48 tweets • 13 min read • Read on X

I talked about Amari Cooper on the podcast this week, but thought it would be fun to cover it here too.

Let me preface by saying Amari Cooper is one of the best 15 prospects we've seen in the past 20 years

But he hasnt exactly lived up to that billing

Commence Diving.

I put up this poll the other day and 49.2% of y'all think he's going to be a WR1 or better in 2021.

And I have to assume it is because of this torrid stretch to begin the season.

Through the first four weeks Amari Cooper was THE WR1 overall...

Dak Prescott just so happened to get injured in game 5 and Amari's season went off the rails thereafter.

But it should be noted that Amari averaged 12.75 targets per game over those first four games.

12.75*16 = 204 targets.

That is a LOT of targets.

So many targets in fact, that it would have placed him 2nd in the annals of history, just one target behind the NFL record set by Marvin Harrison in 2002.

Just for a touch of reality, here are Amari Cooper's targets totals by season over the entirety of his career.

2015 - 130
2016 - 131
2017 - 96
2018 - 108
2019 - 119
2020 - 130

2020 extrapolated 4 game sample - 204!!!!

One of these is not like the others.

So was Amari Cooper just on fire in those first 4 games and Dak Prescott was feeding his re-born superstar receiver?

#onward

In those first four games Dak Prescott averaged 39+47+57+58 = 201/4 = 50.25 attempts!

Just a bit of historical context... Dak was on pace for 50.25*16 = 804 Attempts.

That would have easily beaten the NFL record of 727 and is more than ONE HUNDRED attempts more than second place in the record books.

So then the question becomes, did they WANT to lead the league in pass attempts or was it just a happy accident?

This tells us the intentions of the Cowboys offense, did they want to pass, or did they pass when they had to?

Dak played 67.5% of the snaps in week 5, so I included that too

The Cowboys are around 54% which is fine, but it is far from "our intention is to break volume records"

From weeks 5 onward they are around 51%.

Could the change from Dak to Dalton have been that 3 percentage points change? Could it be variance? Could it be something else?

So beyond intention what else leads to pass attempts?

Losing games and playing in shootouts (the latter is tied to bad defense.

Lets tackle the defense first.

The Cowboys defense was near league bottom last year. They gave up the 5th most points over the course of the season averaging 29.6 ppg.

Dallas had to score to keep up.

In that remarkable first four game stretch the Dallas defense was even worse averaging an astounding 36.5 ppg against.

They were also losing games, so they couldnt milk the clock late in games. They had to keep their foot on the pedal to try and catch up.

Dallas finished 6-10 on the season.

They lost 3 of their first 4 games.

So Dallas was at the epicenter for pass volume despite showing their intention was NOT to lead the world in pass attempts.

It just so happened their defense was atrocious (in the first four games especially) AND they were losing.

1-3 in the first four games.
5-7 thereafter

I hope that what you've gleaned so far is that extrapolating small samples is #badprocess

We SHAN'T extrapolate. We SHALL project.

Carry on?

So the first thing we should look at is "how big is the pie"?

IE. what is the overall volume of the offense going to look like?

The issue with projections is that personnel dictates usage so there are lots of moving parts and really we are just trying to make an educate guess around a range of outcomes.

So lets start with the QB himself as I believe the QB is the biggest driver of the offense.

I normally throw out players rookie years unless it aligns with the rest of their history, but normally rookies need a year to get on board.

So in Dak's last three healthy seasons he has averaged:

490+526+596 = 1,612/3= 537 attempts.

537 is SUBSTANTIALLY less than the 4 game extrapolated 2020 totals of 804.

But less assign Dak ALL of the Cowboys pass attempts from last year. and rerun the average.

Dallas had 39.9 attempts * 16 games = 638.4 attempts.

Lets take his last three healthy seasons and that total to get our Dak average instead.

490+526+596+638 = 2,250/ 4 = 562 attempts.

562 attempts on a per game basis would be 35 attempts per game.

That would put the offense right around 18th in the NFL in attempts

Not exactly 🔥

I have reach the limit on tweets for the thread, brb.

Ok, we're back.

Coaching staff's also play a pretty big part in offensive philosophy but again, remember that personnel dictates usage.

Mike McCarthy had Aaron Rodgers for pretty much his entire coaching career so pretty much all of his numbers are skewed by Rodgers' presence

Nevertheless, we press on.

McCarthy was coach of the packers from 2006-2018.

So lets look at his early down pass frequency when accounting for game script.

From 2015-2018 he absolutely unleashed Aaron Rodgers.

If you recall the Dak Prescott one from earlier we didnt see him unleash Prescott in a similar manner, that probably should be expected because Dak aint A-A-Ron.

But I think this shows that McCarthy isnt averse to throwing the ball at the very least.

Now remember the other factors that pushed Dallas to the top of the league was losing and bad defense.

USA today had an article on April 16th showing that Dallas' over/under win total is set at 9 this year.

This is not a team expected to finish 6-10 again.

Which is to say, I wouldnt bank on a bunch of garbage time pass attempts again. Or at least not as many as last season.

And defense is notoriously not very sticky year over year in the NFL.

We routinely see bad defenses get good, and good defenses get bad.

So I wouldnt count on the shootout factor either.

Based on a probable winning team, the unstickiness of NFL defenses, and the McCarthy and Dak factors I cant see the Cowboys being anything worse than a middle of the pack passing squad.

I think thats our floor.

And the ceiling is top of the league pass volume. They were 2nd in the NFL in pass attempts last year and maybe they are bad again and their defense is bad, and McCarthy thinks Dak is Aaron Rodgers, and Dak's trajectory as a passer takes another step forward.

I think its totally possible to see Dallas lead the league in attempts. I wouldnt bet on it, but its certainly possible.

So whats the next step? Amari's piece of the pie.

Amari has been remarkably stable in terms of target share since entering the NFL. Even when switching teams.

So lets assume that he comes in around his three year average of 20.6% even though CeeDee Lamb might be the best WR he's ever played with and he's a rookie no more.

We are giving Amari the benefit of the doubt that Lamb eats off someone else's plate.

So if we said the floor is middle of the pack and the ceiling is the roof, lets look at the volume of targets we should expect for Amari.

Here are three pass volume examples, one for league average, one for upper tier, and one for top of the league:

35.6 *16 = 570 attempts

37.9 * 16 = 606 attempts

39.9 * 16 = 638 attempts

Amari's share of those is:

Amari's career yards per target is 8.7 but in Dallas' its jumped to 9.3.

So lets take a look at those two numbers combined with his projected target volume.

Here are Amari's yardage totals based on his career average.

And here are his totals based on his Yards per Target when he's been in Dallas. (probably more reliable imo).

That total yardage for each level of production on a per game basis is:

68, 73, and 76 yards per game.

This is where that yardage would have slotted in in each of the past three years.

And honestly, none of this is out of the ordinary for Amari Cooper.

These are his ppg finishes by year since entering the NFL.

So if we go back to the very beginning, when half the world voted for Amari to finish as a fantasy WR1, I have to know....

And then beyond that, If Amari is a WR2... he's probably not worth the price of admission.

You should be trying to acquire players with top 5 upside as that is where you find the real difference makers.

Top 5 to an average WR2 is the same scoring difference as a WR2 to a WR5

I put high level projections in the rankings so you can see what I am expecting from these players in 2021 which is paramount to dynasty success. (and obviously redraft success)

I am quite certain that Amari Cooper is going to be a WR2 in 2021

And I think you should aim higher