Amazing thread by @tequieremos about Amrullah Saleh's preposterous claims from his past.
Below is a [thread] on one of his latest preposterous claims about the Kabul University attack.
On November 2,2020, at least 22 people were killed & over 40 others were wounded after two 1/12
gunmen attacked the Kabul University. Soon after the attack, ISIS (Daesh) claimed the responsibility from the official channel even released images of the two attackers. Just a month before this barbaric attack,ISIS attacked an education center in Kabul killing 24. 2 similar 2/12
attacks in Quetta & Peshwar were carried out in the same period, one of which was also claimed by ISIS-KP.
Despite ISIS officially claiming the responsibility Amrullah Saleh quickly released the statement he is personally investigating the case. Taliban instantly denied 3/12
Infact blamed the Afgh govt for facilitating the attack. Here is Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid statement "Our Mujahideen never carry out attacks on educational institutes, public spaces or areas that have no military target" 4/12
But things took an interesting turn.
- Fake Video of ISIS surfaced on the internet claiming "We are not that Brutal, we deny any involvement in the Kabul attack" Majority of Afghan analysts called it fake including the famous Bilal Sarwary.(came before the official video) 5/12
In no time "Anti-Peace Talks" banners in Kabul University & roads of Kabul appeared. This practice of posting banners & pictures of criminals in Kabul was started by none other than Amrullah Saleh. Saleh resigned during Karzai after he initiated talks with Taliban in 2010 6/12
Hold on this is not the end Authorities released images of the crime scene with Taliban Flag & Graffiti as if the barbarians went not for the attack but for a political rally. This whole campaign was building up & part of this campaign was 7/12
ISIS fake video being sponsored on social media especially on different Facebook Pages. when was the last time any of you heard about ISIS running ads on Youtube & Facebook? Days after this Saleh as expected appeared claiming that NDS has arrested the mastermind of kabul 8/12
University attack & It turned out to be a member Haqqani Network ( Faction of Taliban Saleh claims that is supported by Pakistan's ISI), A year later 9/12
This year Afghanistan supreme court gave the ruling as per the statement "five other collaborators of the attack were sentenced to various jail terms on charges of treason, transfer of explosive materials and cooperation with Daesh". The court order mention no detail of any 10/12
involvement of Pakistan, Taliban/ Haqqani Network as claimed by Amrullah Saleh.
But the Anti-Talks campaign, Fake video, Pakistan bashing, Graffiti & Flags had nothing to do with Saleh taking charge of Kabul Security Chief just weeks ago before all of this. But apart from 11/12
that CIA backed Milliti under Amrullah command of NDS, like of Khost Protection Force (KPF), often feed US wrong intel resulting in civil deaths in Airstrikes & Drone strikes in Afghanistan. 12/12
*Militia, *Civilian
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Syria is a complex case. The majority of analyses are mostly from a geo-political perspective without taking into account Syria's internal dynamics. The problems are structural and go back even decades before Bashar Al-Assad.A refusal to acknowledge that
-1/n
the Syrians don't have agency. Understanding reactionary political movements is necessary to understand Syria and Iraq. Any totalitarian government with identity politics at its core would only form discriminatory policies towards those outside the ruling class.
-2/n
That's what happened in Syria and Iraq. Baathism revolved around Promoting a cult; a dictator, the only option. The power structure lacked political pluralism in a diverse country like Syria. For the past 50 years, Syria’s government has been dominated by members of the Alawite sect, who represent less than 10 percent of its population.
-3/n
Trump and Iran is the most relevant question today. Trump's cabinet would be full of Iran hawks. Three things would influence his actions
a. Iran Hawks in his Admin
b. Iran alleged involvement in his assassination plot
c. Vision for middle-east [Axis and Normalization]
-1/n
The indirect talks between Tehran and Washington were already called off last week. Trump admin will come with the policy of 'Maximum pressure' on Iran. Diplomatic manoeuvring would be limited. So what option does Iran have in an environment of regional escalation and
-2/n
emerging threats to its national security and sovereignty.
Iran needs to demonstrate its power to signal its current position in the regional order but also needs to establish deterrence in a rapidly changing security environment and regional dynamics.
-3/n
Sinwar [Thread]
Decapitation doesn't work with networked organizations such as Hamas. The majority are children of the camps [Refugees]. Even after decades of imprisonment, Sinwar opted for resistance instead of a different comfortable life. Even though Israel has
-1/n
Finally achieved one of its main objectives; the assassination of Yahya Sinwar, the brain behind the biggest disaster in the history of Israel. But this has induced a new dilemma. For months, Israel propagated that Sinwar is hiding in tunnels while keeping Hostages as
-2/n
Human Shield. Unexpectedly, he was assassinated, not in an Intelligence based operation in some underground facility but in a random encounter at the heart of the battlefield.Israel's intelligence and military capabilities to rescue hostages are still questionable!
-3/n
Iranian retaliation
[Intial analysis]
Iranian response was different in magnitude, scope, and quality than April [True Promise]. Less warning time, no use of drones or cruise missiles, and use of the latest missiles, including Hypersonic Fatah, instead of decades old.
-1/n
This means Iran meant real business; objective was not only demonstration of power but also impact. Unlike the previous attacks. That's why targets were all high-end, including the Nevatim. Delivering the message that nothing is safe, so don't think of retaliation.
-2/n
This was referred to as retaliation for Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah, and Abbas Nilforoushan; reaffirming that Iran would stand with "Axis" till the end and won't hesitate to directly assisting them in certain circumstances.
-3/n
Hezbollah's response [Thread]
Hezbollah's response to assassination of Fuad Shukr mirrors Iranian true promise operation, where the goal was demonstration of offensive capabilities rather than carrying out a high impact strike. In the normal circumstances, this could have
-1/n
Helped established deterence, but since it was unfolding in a volatile regional environment, it was not well received, especially when Israel considered it in relation to the existential war it is waging. Initially, Israel delivered the signal through Isfahan.
-2/n
Which was either downplayed or entirely ignored by IRGC. IRGC believed that true promise was enough to establish new rules of engagement, especially wrt IRGC officials, advisors, and mainland. These new Rules of Engagement (ROE) were totally unacceptable to Israel.
-3/n
Sinwar as Head of Hamas Political Bureau [Thread]
The appointment of Sinwar as head of political bureau, after the assassination of Haniyeh, might be surprising for many, but it is a strategic decision based on the security and political realities of the region and beyond. -1/n
When Hamas planned Al-Aqsa Flood (Oct 7), it knew it was a strategic manoeuvre having serious long-term implications, and there would be no coming back afterwards. One implication was the end of rapprochement with West and Gulf via the political bureau.
-2/n
especially when one of the objectives was to block US backed Arab-Israeli normalization having no Palestinian stakes. External pragmatism no longer offered any gains in the changing regional dynamics. Now it's just one package: "either you are with us or against us"
-3/n