1/8
This WSJ editorial makes an interesting but misleading point :

It quotes "a former U.S. President" as saying: “The tax on capital gains directly affects investment decisions, the mobility and flow...

wsj.com/articles/the-d…
2/8
of risk capital from static to more dynamic situations, the ease or difficulty experienced by new ventures in obtaining capital, and thereby the strength and potential for growth of the economy.”
3/8
And then it presents the surprise reveal: "That wasn’t Ronald Reagan. It was John F. Kennedy, whose chief economic adviser was liberal Keynesian Walter Heller. A Democrat who said that today would be excommunicated, but it’s nonetheless true."
4/8
Not really. These things cannot be true or false for all time as a matter of religious conviction. They are only true or false according to underlying conditions, and conditions were very different in the 1950s and 1960s than they are today.
5/8
At that time, investment in the US and globally was constrained by scarce savings — as it had been since at least WW1 and exacerbated by WW2 — and the US was a major capital exporter to a world that urgently needed more US capital.
6/8
In that case it wouldn't be at all surprising if JFK and his "liberal Keynesian" advisors believed that policies that increased savings would also increase investment. It easily could.

But this doesn't mean that if it were true by the end of the early 1960s it must always...
7/8
be true. It would only be true in similar periods in which businesses, in response to strong demand, are eager to expand investment but are unable to do so because of scarce savings and the high cost of capital.

But this hasn't been true of the past few decades, and ...
8/8
to the extent that what constrains US business investment today is weak demand rather than scarce and expensive capital, it suggests that the best policy is not one that converts income into more savings but rather one that convert income into more real demand.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @michaelxpettis

27 Apr
1/5
Very interesting Caixin article. Beijing has stopped work on two HSR projects in Shandong and Shaanxi because of provincial debt concerns. In both cases they cancelled the projects after discovering that they were designed mainly to create..

caixinglobal.com/2021-04-26/as-…
2/5
economic activity, and were not otherwise expected to generate enough economic value to justify the expenditures.

In fact this can probably said of many if not most HSR projects initiated in the past decade, which is why I suspect the real reason these projects were...
3/5
stopped (and I expect there will be more later this year) is because the regulators know that they won't need high levels of unwanted investment to achieve the GDP growth target this year. If they want to show that they are serious about deleveraging, they must limit the...
Read 5 tweets
26 Apr
1/4
It would be a little worrying if Mofcom took this seriously. A month-long "national consumption festival" to "unleash spending potential" strikes me as suggesting just how difficult it is for Beijing to boost the relative importance of consumption.

scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/4
There are literally only two ways you can boost the consumption share of GDP. The more sustainable way is to raise the household share of GDP (directly, or indirectly through government spending).
3/4
The other way is to convince households to reduce their savings or, which is the same thing, increase their debt, and the only sustainable way of doing either would be to redistribute household income downwards.
Read 5 tweets
25 Apr
1/7
I'm not sure this should come as much of a surprise as people seem to think. It should have been pretty clear for a while now that credit growth was going to slow this year, but it is important to understand what it means and doesn't mean.

ft.com/content/2b9273…
2/7
If Beijing accepts 2021 GDP growth of roughly 6-7%, which I expect, China will be able to achieve the growth target without much need for the surge in debt required to boost FAI. This doesn't mean however that Beijing will have resolved – or even addressed – the very...
3/7
difficult debate between debt and growth, or that it has figured out how to achieve its desired GDP growth targets while keeping debt from soaring. What will drive what Beijing calls “healthy” growth this year are mainly one-off factors – a partial reversal of last year's...
Read 7 tweets
22 Apr
1/5
As the relationship between Washington and Beijing continues to deteriorate (and unfortunately, as I’ve long argued, given global imbalances and trends it is likely to get worse before it gets better), the irony here is that in a world of weak...

scmp.com/knowledge/us-c…
2/5
demand, any aid or support either provides to Africa and Latin America actually benefits their own economies, especially to the extent that they ensure the aid is spent domestically, rather than “saved” abroad in the form of corruption.
3/5
This is because any aid that is spent to improve productivity or welfare must ultimately be spent directly or indirectly on imports. This is just an accounting identity, and the same identity tells us that these imports directly or indirectly will increase exports in the...
Read 5 tweets
22 Apr
1/12
Very good, sober @noahpinion piece on digital RMB (it seems hard for most to write soberly about digital currencies). He makes at least four important points:

First, given how advanced China's payments system already is, the main difference...

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/12
a digital PBoC wallet creates is that it gives the regulators more control over and information about household and business transactions and savings. Although he doesn't mention this, it may also transform the liability structure of the commercial banks.
3/12
Second, a digital RMB is unlikely to increase the international prominence of the RMB, let alone at the expense of the US dollar. In fact the RMB is only remarkable internationally for how little it is used relative to China's size, and especially its size as a trading...
Read 13 tweets
22 Apr
1/4
"The main thing, says Germany, is for Spain to offer 'an ambitious and credible' commitment to reduce public debt, as a sign to the markets."

What the markets need in today's environment to get businesses to invest is not signs of fiscal...

english.elpais.com/economy_and_bu…
2/4
restraint but rather a revival of real demand. This reminds me of the official (and wrongheaded) position of France in the early 1930s that the key to recovery was for France, the US and the UK to cut spending in order to protect a financial system based on gold.
3/4
Fortunately French advice was largely ignored (By FDR, not by the American banking establishment, who largely agreed), but in France it led both to a weakened contribution to global demand and ultimately the torpedoing of the French economy that forced it off gold anyway.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!