expecting it to be struck down by the originalists citing Scalia's terrible Heller decision, nevermind the fact that local bans on concealed carry are as "longstanding" (the Heller standard) any other kind of gun restriction smithsonianmag.com/history/gun-co…
That said, what would such a decision mean for violence, crime, and daily life in New York City? A lot depends on just how expansive the majority's opinion is, but it's not clear to me this would immediately translate into much higher rates of gun carrying and violence.
Right now New York has perhaps the most restrictive public carry laws in the country, with a discretionary "my issue" standard requiring petitioners to demonstrate an actual need to carry outside the home.
Say SCOTUS makes permits "shall issue," with no local discretion over issuance - that would put New York in the legal same category the majority of states, which have variable gun cultures, ubiquity of carry, and rates of shootings. giffords.org/lawcenter/gun-…
Alabama and Florida are "shall issue" states, but so are Oregon, Rhode Island, and Washington. Gun culture is pretty distinct around the country. It grows out of centuries of social mores around interpersonal violence. In this regard, the South really is different.
Permissive gun carry laws don't actually lead to the liberal nightmare of vigilantism, though politically that cuts both ways: defensive gun use is extremely rare, to the point that right wing claims about the constant need for self protection should not be given credence.
What permissive public carry laws seem to engender is not vigilantism but carelessness. People leave weapons in cars and other insecure places. They lose them. Hundreds of thousands of guns get lost or stolen every year, supplying the black market. thetrace.org/2016/09/stolen…
Anyway, I don't think even a very pro-gun SCOTUS decision will upend centuries of social convention in parts of the country where people don't carry guns in public, but it could indirectly lead to more guns making their way to the criminal market.
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