O Brasil foi o epicentro da pandemia por meses, mas Bolsonaro não conseguiu convencer o governo Biden a enviar matérias-primas para a produção de vacinas. Agora q um surto de covid abalou tb a Índia, Biden reagiu rapidamente, permitindo o envio do material aos indianos. P q?🧵👇
4 razões explicam por que a Índia é mto mais influente do q o Brasil na capital dos EUA:
1) A diáspora indiana nos EUA é bem organizada e politicamente ativa. Por exemplo, o "lobby indiano" foi crucial p/ convencer o Congresso dos EUA a apoiar o acordo nuclear com a Índia em 2006
A diáspora brasileira nos EUA, em comparação, não só é menor, mas também carece do mesmo poder de organização ou influência. (Existem muitas razões para isso, mas uma é que o governo brasileiro não considera os brasileiros que vivem no exterior como um ativo estratégico.)
As elites indianas são muito bem conectadas em Washington e montaram uma verdadeira operação de guerra ao longo dos últimos dias. Políticos, intelectuais, artistas e CEOs indianos ligaram para seus contatos nos EUA, pedindo o envio do material.
2) Embora o primeiro-ministro da Índia, Modi, e o presidente do Brasil, Bolsonaro, sejam ambos fãs de Trump, tenham ambições autoritárias, estejam minando ativamente suas democracias e não tenham boa reputação em Washington, Modi foi pragmático quando Biden chegou ao poder.
Bolsonaro, por sua vez, disse acreditar que a eleição nos Estados Unidos foi fraudulenta e se recusou por muito tempo a parabenizar Biden. Bolsonaro, em poucas palavras, está fazendo de tudo para complicar a vida daqueles em Washington que defendem a relação Brasil-Estados Unidos
3) A relevância estratégica da Índia p/ os EUA é incomparável - sua economia é maior q a do Brasil, é um parceiro comercial + importante e é um aliado p/ conter a China. Políticos indianos podem acessar os + altos escalões do poder em DC de uma forma q os brasileiros ñ conseguem.
4) Como grande produtora de vacinas, a Índia planejou exportar milhões de doses para países pobres, mas agora as exportações cessaram. Isso, e o fato de q a população da Índia é mais de 6 vezes maior que a do Brasil, ajudou os negociadores indianos na hora de pedir ajuda dos EUA

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More from @OliverStuenkel

26 Apr
Brazil & India have seen their health systems collapse after a covid surge. The US decision to react to India's requests &send raw materials for vaccines, lifting an export ban (which it didn't do for Brazil) shows how India's influence inWashington far exceeds that of Brazil🧵👇
4 reasons explain why India is far more influential than Brazil:
1st, and most importantly, India's diaspora in the US is politically very powerful. For example, the "India lobby" was critical in pressing members of US Congress to support the US-Indian nuclear agreement in 2006.
Brazil's diaspora in the US, by comparison, is not only smaller, but also lacks the same organizing power or influence. (There are many reasons for this, but one is that the Brazilian government doesn't really regard Brazilians living abroad as a strategic asset.)
Read 8 tweets
31 Mar
A escolha de Carlos França como sucessor de Ernesto Araújo no Itamaraty é um sinal claro de que o presidente Bolsonaro e seu filho Eduardo —os dois principais articuladores da política externa brasileira— não pretendem permitir uma guinada na estratégia internacional do país 🧵👇
França nunca chefiou uma embaixada no exterior, não tem poder político próprio e dificilmente terá muita liberdade para tomar decisões sem anuência explícita da família Bolsonaro, que está no processo de centralizar ainda mais o poder político no Palácio do Planalto.
Além disso, superestima o poder da diplomacia quem supuser q seria possível normalizar a política externa do Brasil sem uma moderação fundamental da política interna. O Brasil tornou-se pária diplomático ñ por causa de seu chanceler,mas em função das políticas internas do governo
Read 7 tweets
29 Mar
Many factors contributed to Ernesto Araújo's fall, but one stands out: Joe Biden. With Trump gone, the cost of maintaining a pro-Trump anti-globalist Foreign Minister became simply too high for Bolsonaro. 🧵👇
Biden's election complicated a unique and often overlooked advantage that Bolsonaro enjoyed in the foreign policy realm: With Trump acting as the disruptor-in-chief and absorbing most of the world’s attention, Bolsonaro could rail against globalism without paying much of a price.
This may sound like a minor issue, but Bolsonaro’s radical foreign policy has been crucial to satisfying an important part of his constituency which voted for the seven-term congressman expecting a complete rupture with the past.
Read 7 tweets
28 Mar
President Bolsonaro is considering naming Admiral Flávio Rocha as Foreign Minister. Irrespective of the man's qualifications, the move would probably taint the armed forces' reputation further. For several reasons, the job looks like a trap and a mission impossible 🧵👇
First of all, it is Bolsonaro himself and his son Eduardo who really make the key decisions in the realm of foreign policy. Araújo never called the shots. Even a 'normal' Foreign Minister will struggle having to constantly defend the indefensible to international interlocutors.
The same has happened before: 1) Brazil's former Minister of Health, general Pazuello, oversaw the number of COVID-19 victims in Brazil explode from 15 to over 280 thousand. Bolsonaro made Pazuello preside over a disaster of epic proportions.
Read 9 tweets
26 Mar
Pressure is growing on President Bolsonaro to sack his 'flat-earther' Foreign Minister, the government's most radical cabinet member along with the Minister of Women, Family and Human Rights. But while Araújo may end up losing his job, his departure is far from assured 👇🧵
Araújo may be a disaster as Foreign Minister, but he is extremely loyal to the president. He has compared Bolsonaro to Jesus and routinely says the president was sent by God. Pushing him out would send be a sign that the president cannot protect his most radical sycophants.
Bolsonaro already had to let go a series of loyal followers, including former Minister of Education Weintraub, a far-right conspiracy theorist, and former Minister of Health Pazuello, an extremely incompetent general who oversaw the collapse of Brazil's public health system.
Read 7 tweets
24 Mar
During today's hearing in Brazil's Senate, Bolsonaro's advisor for int'l affairs Filipe Martins (left) made a hand gesture that has come to be linked to white supremacist views, similar to that made by the terrorist of Christchurch (right) who killed 51 people in a mosque in 2019
Filipe Martins also uses a poem by Dylan Thomas, known by its first line, "Do Not Go Gentle into That Good Night", as his twitter profile background -- the same poem cited by the terrorist of Christchurch in his online manifesto.
The usage of the phrase in Martin's twitter profile has led to strong criticism from Brazil's diplomatic community after the Christchurch shooting in March 2019. Below an article on the matter in Folha de São Paulo:

www1.folha.uol.com.br/mundo/2019/04/…
Read 6 tweets

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