In short: 1. Carbon prices in the ETS would triple to ~130€/tCO2 in 2030, effectively phasing out coal power in the EU by 2030
2/5
2. CO2 prices would also reduce gas-based generation by 40% in 2030 already
3. The power sector would reach zero emissions by 2040
4. Renewable share in electricity >74% in 2030, with average yearly wind + solar scale-up over 2020-2030 in Europe: 80GW/year
3/5
5. Balanced Wind / PV split, plus hydrogen electrolysis & turbines allow seasonal matching of demand & supply;
long-distance grids, batteries and hydrogen turbines manage shorter fluctuations
6. Unavailability of nuclear/fossil CCS power plants does not affect results
4/5
7. Total power system costs would increase by only 5%
8. Full electricity prices would increase in the next years by <2ct/kWh, but go down again after 2025 and eventually return to prices seen over the last decade
5/5 ... looking forward to the tightening of ETS cap @EUClimateAction