Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #EUETS

Most recents (24)

Not enough!

The EU has taken several decisions on air transport this week - and failed to bring it on track for 1.5 degrees.

We need pressure to get the EU to do more!
#Thread 🧵
1/ Reality check: EU is failing to keep us on track for 1.5 deg
June 24
🇪🇺 reveals new Alliance for Zero Emission Aviation to “make hydrogen-powered & electric aircraft a reality” – even the industry itself acknowledges: options won’t be viable until it's too late - 2035-40 at best - & will only fly a few hundred km… 2/
June 27- #Fitfor55 aviation package: Transport MEPs set impossible targets for using 85% fossil fuel substitutes #SAFs for ✈️ by 2050.
IATA targets for substituting even 5-10% fossil kerosene have NEVER been met since they started to set targets in 2008!…
Read 9 tweets
1/ #EUETS #carbon reform gets through Parliament. Now Council‘s 27 members have to reach their views. They tend to sail much closer to the law. And then it goes to Trilogue discussions. So whilst Parliament’s view is important, it is not final. Summary of Parliament view
- 2030 target slightly tighter: c64% instead of EU’s original 61% proposal
- One-off reductions of 70mt in 2024 and 50mt in 2026
- CBAM kicks in 2027 ramping up fully 2032 (prior 2034) with corresponding reduction in free allowances
- Market access getting Commission to -> 3/
produce a report in July 2023 assessing impact of restricting access to physical allowances. Frankly, this just shows a massive naivety: the vast majority of speculative elements happens in the options/derivatives market
Read 4 tweets
A few thoughts on Commission proposal to auction MSR volumes:
1/ it’s approx. revenue neutral, or even negative
2/ it could therefore be a measure to control prices
2/ however, it’s not a done deal
3/ and, if approved, future discretionary uses should be limited
1/ Would reduce revenues for existing auctions sufficiently to make it revenue neutral. If the true price impact is ~14/t (2x Wednesday’s price move, assuming 50% probability priced in), then at an estimated 1800-2000Mt of auctions over 2023-26 this is worth 25-28 bn EUR. #OCTT
2/ If revenue neutral, that means it primarily reduces the price. This would be scary if the true objective, and would undermine faith in the market. This theory could be confirmed if the EIB, in charge of auctioning, has any ad hoc discretion on the timing of sales. #OCTT #EUETS
Read 8 tweets
Despite its YTD rally coal is still more profitable than gas in power generation for a lot of the curve. Carbon has dragged itself into positive territory for the year, but could break out later today when ENVI votes on #EUETS reforms. #OCTT
ICE trading volume in the Dec-22 contract is setting new YTD records, and even though traders complain about a lack of liquidity, we're averaging a record 25 million EUAs a day in the benchmark. Go figure..... #EUETS #OCTT
The negative TTF gas-EUA correlation that we saw for a while seems to be fading #EUETS #OCTT
Read 4 tweets
Der Bericht vom #Expertenrat für #Klimafragen @ERK_Klima ist veröffentlicht. Dabei haben wir uns intensiv mit dem Mechanismus des #Klimaschutzgesetzes beschäftigt. Wir identifizieren eine Reihe von Handlungsfeldern & zeigen konkrete Optionen für eine Weiterentwicklung auf.
Ein🧵 Image
2/ Grundsätzliche Handlungsfelder sind:
- Auslösemechanismus für Sofortprogramme ist zu mechanistisch
- fehlende vorausschauende Perspektive
- erweitertes Monitoring notwendig
- mangelnde Kongruenz des KSG mit den übergeordneten Instrumenten #EUETS und #BEHG
3/ Die Auslösung eines Sofortprogrammes hat beim Steuerungssignal Mängel und ist zu mechanistisch in der Anwendung. Dafür machen wir Vorschläge:
- Umstellung auf Normjahre/bereinigte Daten
- bessere Datenverfügbarkeit
- Definition eines Korridors
- automatisch BEHG Preis anheben
Read 15 tweets
Der Bericht des Expertenrats für #Klimafragen @ERK_Klima zu den Emissionsdaten 2021 ist da:
➡️#Gebäude & #Verkehr haben das Sektorziel verfehlt
➡️Die Emissionsintensität ist gestiegen
➡️Es werden Vorschläge zur Weiterentwicklung des KSG gemacht
1/n🧵 Image
2/ Die Emissionen wären im #Verkehrssektor ohne #Corona noch höher ausgefallen. Der #Gebäudesektor hat zum zweiten Mal in Folge das Sektorziel überschritten. Allerdings ist der Überschreitungswert kleiner als die durch Lagerhaltung und Witterung bedingten Einflüsse
3/ Für beide Sektoren wird jetzt nach § 8 #Klimaschutzgesetz jeweils ein Sofortprogramm notwendig, das die Einhaltung des Sektorziels für die folgenden Jahre sicherstellt.
Der #Industriesektor hat sein Ziel knapp erreicht, der Einfluss der Sondereffekte ist hier nicht eindeutig
Read 10 tweets
2/ 11 EU nations say “Now is the time to be bold and to move ahead with determination with the green transition. Any delay ... will only prolong our energy dependence … negotiations on the package should therefore be accelerated and ambitions ramped up”
3/ “A strong ETS is the cornerstone of the FF55 package, providing us with an effective tool to ensure a cost-effective transition combined with ambitious sectoral measures and standards”
Read 3 tweets
@EU_Commission presented its #ownresources proposal today. It lays out 3 new revenue streams to:
- repay EU debt #NextGenerationEU
- finance the #SocialClimateFund

A short thread on what it means for #EUETS contributions based on some initial rough calculations 🧵1/13
First things first. 3 proposed new revenue streams are:
- 25% ETS (1+2) revenues: ~12.5b/y
- 75% CBAM revenues: ~0.8b/y
- 15% residual profits from large, profitable multinational enterprises: ~2.5-4b/y

On #CBAM, this was obviously expected; still disappointing. Many (including @e3g) argue that revenues should flow back to vulnerable #LDCs through adaptation and mitigation finance.
@Europarl_EN also seems keen on this @MChahim @kvanbrempt @MalinBjork_EU @KarinKarlsbro 3/13
Read 14 tweets
Szanowny Panie Ministrze @JKowalski_posel . W ciągu ostatnich kilkudziesięciu godzin wygłosił Pan szereg oświadczeń o systemie #EUETS nie do końca zgodnych z faktami. Zdając sobie sprawę ze skomplikowania tematu, chcę jednak sprostować kilka informacji.
Polska nie otrzymała w tym roku 105 mln. darmowych uprawnień do emisji. Uprawnienia do emisji co do zasady są sprzedawane na aukcjach i Polska otrzymała środki ze sprzedaży ok. 105 mln z nich. Dokładniej ok. 25,2 mld zł. 2/11
Dodatkowo, Polska otrzymała prawo do przyznania - zgodnie z art.10a Dyrektywy ETS darmowych uprawnień dla polskiego przemysłu narażonego na ucieczkę emisji. Łącznie ok. 60 mln uprawnień (jeśli posiada Pan dokładniejsze dane - proszę o informacje - chętnie skoryguję błąd). 3/11
Read 11 tweets
🏭Coal-fired power plants are still being favored in German power merit order...despite €70/t #EUETS price

European Gas price is just too HIGH

This does exhibit some fundamental support for current carbon rally: high coal burn leads to high EUA demand Image
Coal-fired plants' advantage is clearly shown in its Short run marginal cost vs Gas.

even the 36% efficient coal plants are in the money, as surging gas prices driving up Gas SRMC Image
Thus, it is not surprising to see German coal plants' load hours have picked up notably this autumn.

The chart shows monthly average load of 'hard coal' (not brown coal/lignite). Image
Read 4 tweets
EU Commission now unveiling a toolbox of measures to to respond to rapidly rising energy prices as demand upticks post-pandemic.

They’re under intense pressure from national governments to do something. But most of this toolbox is just reminding countries what *they* can do.
EU Energy Commissioner @KadriSimson reminds governments that #EUETS revenues are way up.

“We call on member states to use that additional income to address the social impact of the energy price surge where needed.”
Immediate measures include:

👩‍👧‍👧Emergency income support for the energy-poor through vouchers

💶Deferred bill payments;

🏦Temporary, targeted reductions in taxation rates

🏬Aid to companies ion line with EU state aid rules
Read 7 tweets
What’s driving the gas price surge? 1/

@PatAlvarezB chalks it up to these factors: Natural gas prices in Europe may remain elevated heading into the winter amid a tightening supply scenario and below-average storage levels, subdued LNG and pipeline imports.

2/ The run-up in CO2 prices are also a factor: As CO2 prices increase, electric generators are incentivized to operate cleaner burning #gas plants at the expense of coal, which helps to drive gas demand higher and consequently may provide structural support for higher gas prices.
3/ Will the run-up in #gas prices be transitory or enduring? What about #oil? Is the rise in #carbon prices structural?

Read our analysis on @TheTerminal by visiting BI<GO> #OOTT #ONGT #EUETS #carbon #energytransition #wind #solar #renewables

Read 3 tweets
1/11 Yesterday’s #Fitfor55 launch press conference was dominated by questions about the social impact. So, I took a bit of time to look at the new measures in the package to support low-income households to decarbonise. @RegAssistProj @RightToEnergy Image
2/11 First, raised ambition across the package is good for all. Effects of #ClimateChange will be felt by poorest most. Climate ambition is essential but not enough. Climate ambition must come hand in hand with commitment to address structural inequities.
3/11 The Energy Efficiency Directive is the clear winner of prize for social conscience. New provisions include first EU definition of #energypoverty. Oddly it refers to lack of access to essential services but not affordability of those services and excludes cooking needs. #EED Image
Read 11 tweets
Thread: Following today's #FitFor55 package, here's my initial analysis of the #EUETS revision proposal. Long story short: It becomes more difficult to pollute, but sustainable frontrunners are still disadvantaged compared to laggards.
#EUETS target: Increased to -61% by 2030 compared to 2005, which covers industry + power + intra EU aviation and maritime. This is taken from last year's 2030 #ClimateTargetPlan (see pic), which implies that the target for stationary installations (industry/power) is only -64%
Big plus: #EUETS Linear Reduction Factor almost doubled to 4.2% as of 2024 + one-off reduction ("rebasing") of 119 mln allowances. Leads to a big 15%-POINT cut in free allowances (FA). This LRF was a huge battle in the previous reform, so hope it stays.
Read 14 tweets
Ahead of crucial #COP26 & amid intensifying climate crisis, the @EU_ Commission today presents the #FitFor55 package aiming at cutting EU emissions by 55% by 2030. Implementation will require far-reaching changes in mobility, housing, land use, industrial production. 1/11
The @EU_Commission sends the following signal to the international community: EU ups the ante to align the block on the 1.5° pathway, as pledged in the #ParisAgreement. #Fitfor55 will show whether the EU is ready to walk the climate talk while ensuring a just transition. 2/11
The walk will only be fully successful if environmental integrity and social and distributional justice go hand in hand. Agora welcomes the setting up of a social fund to ensure that its #Fitfor55 proposals lead to greater social solidarity. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
President @VonDerLeyen unveiling #FitFor55 climate package now.

It is the largest single batch of legislation to stop climate change proposed by any government anywhere, designed to update EU laws to meet the new 2030 emissions reduction target of 55% (raised from 40%).
That EU 2030 target was raised in December, motivated partly by the #FridaysForFuture climate protests.

But for the past 6 months there have been many questions about how the new target will be met.

Today we're getting answers.…
Other major economies are also setting more ambitious 2030 emissions reduction targets.

But today the EU becomes the first to spell out how to reach the goal with detailed policy proposals.…
Read 14 tweets
Am Mittwoch, 14.7. wird die #EUKommission das #Fitfor55 Paket vorstellen, ein riesiges Paket mit 12 Initiativen & Gesetzesvorschlägen zur Erreichung der #Klimaziele und zur Umsetzung des #EUGreenDeal.
Hier eine erste Einordnung auf Basis der bisherigen Leaks (1/n)
2/ Um was geht es:
Bei den #Klimazielen geht es um 55% Emissionsreduktion bis 2030, THG-Neutralität bis 2050 und netto-negativ danach. Den Ramen bildet der #EUGreenDeal, der eine umfassende Transformation inklusive einer #JustTransition beschreibt
3/ Das größte Paket ist sicherlich das rund um die Revision des #EUETS. Im #EUETS soll der Schiffsverkehr einbezogen werden und die #MSR angepasst werden. Weiterhin soll es einen neuen separaten "adjacent ETS" #ETS2 für Gebäude und Straßenverkehr geben, der 2025 starten soll.
Read 17 tweets
Das #Klimaschutzgesetz 2.0 ist nun beschlossen worden. Was ist neu?
-schärfere Ziele für 2030
-erstmals Ziele für 2040 & 2045
-Ziele für natürliche Senken (=negative Emissionen)
-Stärkung des Expertenrats für Klimafragen @ERK_Klima…
Details im thread (1/9)
2/ Im #KSG ist das übergeordnete Ziel für 2030 von 55% auf 65% verschärft worden. Das entspricht in etwa dem, was zu erwarten ist, wenn man das neue #EU2030 Ziel von 55% auf Deutschland runterbricht. Im @ERK_Klima Bericht hatten wir dafür eine Spanne von 62-68% abgeschätzt.
3/ Bei den #Sektorzielen bis 2030 sind v.a. die Ziele für die Energiewirtschaft und Industrie angeschärft worden, beides Sektoren, die größtenteils im #EUETS sind. Dort ist wegen des neuen EU-Ziels im #Fitfor55 Paket eine Anschärfung zu erwarten
Read 9 tweets
EU #CBAM proposal was leaked today. While the main elements may not come as a surprise to those having paid close attention to this file in recent months – a few things are worth unpacking, especially as trade partners gear up to react. 👇A thread 1/n
On the table is a limited tool oriented towards managing domestic interests over external and climate considerations. It will initially cover a handful of sectors which, over time, can be extended to other ETS sectors deemed at risk of carbon leakage. Thus, final products... 2/n
.. will likely never be covered. The compliance mechanism will be a notional ETS, meaning exporters to the EU purchase credits at similar prices of the #EUETS and surrender those at the end of each year to cover their products' actual embedded scope 1 and 2 emissions 3/n
Read 10 tweets
Das kleine 1x1 der #CO2Bepreisung. Was ist der Unterschied zwischen #Emissionshandel & #CO2Steuer? Wie sieht es in der Theorie aus und welche Schwierigkeiten treten in der Praxis auf?
Ein thread für alle, die sich selbst ein Bild zum #CO2Preis machen wollen (1/n)
2/ Ein #CO2Preis kann auf zwei Weisen implementiert werden: über einen #Emissionshandel mit einer festen CO2-Obergrenze oder über eine #CO2Steuer mit einem festgelegten Preispfad. In der Theorie führen beide Ansätze zum gleichen #CO2Preis und zum gleichen CO2-Minderungseffekt
3/ Der Vorteil des #Emissionshandels ist es, dass durch die CO2-Obergrenze die Erreichung des Klimaziels sichergestellt ist. Der Vorteil der #CO2Steuer ist es, dass es einen verlässlichen Preispfad als Signal an die Wirtschaft gibt. Soweit die Theorie.
Read 18 tweets
We finally published study on impacts of tightening the #EUETS in line with #EUGreenDeal on power sector #decarbonization…

In short:
1. Carbon prices in the ETS would triple to ~130€/tCO2 in 2030, effectively phasing out coal power in the EU by 2030

2. CO2 prices would also reduce gas-based generation by 40% in 2030 already

3. The power sector would reach zero emissions by 2040

4. Renewable share in electricity >74% in 2030, with average yearly wind + solar scale-up over 2020-2030 in Europe: 80GW/year

5. Balanced Wind / PV split, plus hydrogen electrolysis & turbines allow seasonal matching of demand & supply;
long-distance grids, batteries and hydrogen turbines manage shorter fluctuations

6. Unavailability of nuclear/fossil CCS power plants does not affect results
Read 7 tweets
@BrigitteKnopf @PIK_Climate @Bruegel_org @GeorgZachmann The article could be more readable and I don't find everything in it logically convincing.
Basically, the authors propose a much more complicated double cap system, then eliminating the cap of the cap system by introducing price limits, then proposing a couple of patches to ->
@BrigitteKnopf @PIK_Climate @Bruegel_org @GeorgZachmann -> deal with the problems arising from those modifications.
The core topic is the long overdue introduction of fossil fuels for heating and transport into the #EUETS.
The main problem here being the difference in abatement costs for the two large sectors electricity/industry ->
@BrigitteKnopf @PIK_Climate @Bruegel_org @GeorgZachmann -> and transport/heating.
A single carbon price would mean a sudden very strong price pressure in the first sector, forcing a fast transition there, while the carbon price in the second would be too low to cause fast changes for quite some time.
The first is correctly stated-->
Read 11 tweets
#EUCO leaders have talked through the night on two contentious issues: sanctions against Turkey and raising the EU’s 2030 emissions reduction target.

On thé latter, we’re close to a deal but not quite there yet. Eastern countries want more money for the energy transition.
But they are still stuck on the 2030 climate target as Poland wields its veto, just as it did for the 2050 target.

Last time Poland was bypassed and the target was signed by all except Warsaw. Will they have to do that again now?
PM #Morawiecki says he’ll only drop his climate veto if #Poland can keep more profits from #EUETS emission trading, reportedly telling the other leaders he’ll lose his job if he returns to Warsaw without this concession (having caved on his #EUBudget veto threat last night).
Read 15 tweets
What does EU's impact assessment mean for the electricity sector? Well there's only 1 graph to really any insight, figure 46! #FitFor55...

STEP 1: Use a graph grabber to get the numbers! (the Commission will hate me for doing this!!!!)....…

By 2030: EU elec demand will only rise by 9-11%. Major electrification in transport+industry+heating is partly offset by major efficiency.

BUT by 2050 elec demand will more than double!

(this graph is derived from Commission graphs from figure 46!)

Reassuringly, there's little growth, except for power.

Power grows a little to 2030, then LOADS from 2050.

In figure 46 above, “other renewables” electricity increases by 100TWh by 2030 which might be bioenergy? I wonder what type that is?
Read 8 tweets

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