Thread by @TedBartlett905

Let's talk about something important today, if you're a #BroncosCountry fan. That is, how to use the team's draft resources to create the best team possible for 2021 and beyond. I decided it would be fun to think about strategy, and to share some of that with you. 1/56

The best place to start is with an honest assessment of where the team is. The #Broncos went 5-11 in 2020, but there are some reasons for optimism, when you look at what caused the bad record. 2/56

The first thing I'd point to is that Drew Lock had some pretty obvious growing pains, like most young QBs do. He also wasn't helped by several young receivers having similar growing pains. QB and WR are very hard to play well as young players. 3/56

Justin Herbert played a lot better for the Chargers than I ever saw him play at Oregon, and it was clear that he was helped a lot by highly proficient receiver play. The roster set him up for some early success in that way. 4/56

The #Broncos also had a bad year at RT, with the Ju'Wuan James opt-out, and struggled through Lloyd Cushenberry's learning curve at C. (He improved a lot as the year went on, and we should be optimistic about him going forward.) 5/56

Schematically, on offense, the whole unit had a learning curve with a new offensive coordinator. I thought their proficiency got better through 2020. Young guys (Lock, Jeudy, Fant, Hamler, Cushenberry) all played better late, and the whole group looked more comfortable. 6/56

On defense, the team was much better early in the season before it was decimated by injuries. We all remember what happened at CB, but a major injury that affected the #Broncos fortunes was when Mike Purcell was lost in the 6th game of the year. 7/56

In the first 6 games, the Broncos gave up an average of 110 rushing yards per game (would be 9th in NFL for whole season). In the last 10, that number jumped to 139 (would be 30th). The Chargers, Raiders, and Saints all exceeded 200 rushing yards against them. 8/56

This matters a lot, because schematically, the Broncos like to play split safeties all day (AKA a 2 shell), and encourage the opposing offense to try to run the ball. When you do that, it really helps to be able to play the run well with 7 men in the box. 9/56

With the depletion of the secondary, the pass defense went from allowing 224 YPG (would be 9th in NFL) through the first 10 games to 299 over the last 5 (would be 32nd). (I dropped the Saints game, as an obvious outlier with the Kendall Hinton vs. Taysom Hill situation) 10/56

So, we saw an offense that struggled for the first half of the season, while the defense held up at a Top 10 level. Then, as the offense got going a little bit, the defense lost a bunch of players, and performed poorly in the second half, basically the worst in the NFL. 11/56

So what is the conclusion from this? To me, it's that some better depth would be helpful on defense, and that there's reason for optimism on offense, with the same OC, the return of most starters, and Courtland Sutton and James being re-added to the mix. 12/56

Now. The big question. Is continuing to start Drew Lock at QB the right answer? I tend to think that is. Last week, ESPN's analytics department (premium content) calculated the likelihood that each of 3 possible draftees is better than Lock. 13/56

Do you love those odds? I sure don't, but the point they make is that having one of those guys, plus Lock, probably maximizes the likelihood that a star emerges from the pair of players, even if it's the guy you already have. 14/56

My official QB take is that I think Lock is talented enough to be a top of the NFL QB if he can put it all together. If the Broncos love one of these rookies, and can get him, I won't fault them, because they know a lot more than me. But it's not the path I'd go down. 15/56

Let's also think briefly about roster construction, related to salary cap management. A lot of paid NFL media people don't understand this, but the optimal approach is to think of the average draft pick as a 4 year proposition, like a college recruit. 16/56

For a first rounder, you can think of them as a 5 year proposition, but with the 5th year option now being fully guaranteed a year in advance (thanks to the 2020 CBA update), we're going to see fewer of them being exercised, starting this year. 17/56

The Broncos, under John Elway, have thought this way. Most of the guys you draft are going to "graduate" after their 4 years are up, and will need to be replaced by incoming draftees. 18/56

The best play is to plan ahead, that is, to see who has a contract up 1 year from now, and draft their replacement now. That makes a draftee a backup in year 1, while they learn the NFL game, and a starter from year 2-4. (I'll be calling this "backfilling" as I go.) 19/56

If the player does really well, you look to extend them. If not, if they're just a solid guy who does his job, you keep the development rotation going. About 40 of your 53 man roster will need to be on a 4 year plan like this, or your cap is going to get out of control. 20/56

Let the local media tell it, if a team doesn't have many of the guys they drafted 5 years ago, that means it was a bad draft class. This is because a lot of these people are stupid. The NFL has basically made it hard for mid-career veterans to get second contracts. 21/56

If you're really good, you get paid. If you're replaceable with a younger, cheaper guy, you get replaced when your time ends. Let's look at the #Broncos current roster (filtered down to the top 51 contracts) in this context. 22/56

The category called Premium Players includes 3 guys making more than $15 million in Average Annual Value (AAV). Well-Paid Veterans is guys on second contracts north of $5 million AAV. 23/56

The other category is the bulk of the team, obviously, split between offense and defense, listed in approximate order of likelihood of a guy making it to a second contract with the #Broncos. The players in red are the ones whose contracts expire after this season. 24/56

When we start thinking about backfilling holes a year ahead of time, these players in red are who we're thinking about. What immediately jumps out is that the Broncos will need a safety, a starting outside CB, and a nickelback. Also, both their starting ILBs are up. 25/56

It would also behoove the Broncos, on offense, to think about getting a RB in the mix and finding some WR depth in this draft, to replace Hamilton and probably Patrick in a year. 26/56

Patrick is a good case study - he's the kind of guy the local media would howl about not paying, but to me, it's clear that a mid-round second year guy could do what he does for a lot cheaper in 2022, and you still have that guy cheap for a couple years beyond that. 27/56

As far as draft strategy, I see 4 reasonable ways to approach things. Using The Draft Network's Mock Draft simulator, I've run out scenarios based on each strategy, which I will lay out in the rest of this thread. My intent is to provoke some thought from the fan base. 28/56

Strategy 1 - Hold all start-of-draft picks, and take Best Player Available (hereafter BPA) at each pick. Try to meet some backfill objectives, but not at the expense of passing on the best player we can get. 29/56

In this scenario, Kyle Pitts and Trey Lance were both on the board at pick 9. I went with Pitts, because he's clearly the BPA. An offense with both he and Fant in it would be a capital-P Problem, and defenses would constantly be in personnel conflict vs. 12 personnel. 30/56

I took Oweh in the second round, because he would have a good chance to be a medium-term replacement for Von Miller. The talent and traits are off the charts. 0 sacks in 2020 is ugly, but he played better than that if you look at the video. 31/56

Mayfield, Cisco, and Moses are 2021 depth/2022 backfills. Schwartz fills the Hamilton spot, with a major newfound speed element. Surratt is similar to Patrick as a big traffic-catching WR. (I take him in all 4 scenarios.) 32/56

Williams is hired mainly as a core special teamer, and I like Norwood as primarily a nickelback, who has some versatility to play all 5 secondary positions at times. (I take him late in all 4 scenarios too; he has a Chris Harris vibe to him.) 33/56

Strategy 2 - We trade up to get the QB that we want, and we do the best we can to meet other objectives with what we have left. In this case, we go from 9 to 6 at the cost of our 2022 first round pick, and we take Justin Fields. 34/56

For what it's worth, I think that Fields is probably the #Broncos preferred draftable QB. You only do this deal if you have conviction that the QB you're moving up for is going to be better than Lock. (I don't have that conviction, personally.) 35/56

Since we held our other 2021 picks, we're going BPA and trying to fill some backfill objectives along the way. I like Etienne as a modern RB, in the vein of a McCaffrey, Kamara, or Dalvin Cook. If I can get him at 40, I think it's a no-brainer. 36/56

I like Richie Grant a ton as a split safety next to Justin Simmons. The back end of your defense is super-rangy with those 2. Tyler Shelvin is a traditional 0-tech nose, at a time when those are a bit out of fashion. I want to play 7 man boxes & he helps with that. 37/56

Marco Wilson is a favorite of mine. He's as talented as CJ Henderson, who went 9th last year. Knocks are that his technique didn't improve much at UF, and he made some bonehead plays (see 2020 LSU game.) NFL coaching can help him, if he'll let himself be coached. 38/56

Cooper has a chance to be a contributing pass rusher in a rotation, and the last 3 picks are the same as with Strategy 1. I got a QB and a RB for 2021, and backfilled 4-5 2022 needs. I think this is a pretty solid haul, given the QB imperative we started with. 39/56

Strategy 3 - AKA the Vontae Mack approach. We want Micah Parsons, and we'll trade down only as low as we can to be pretty sure we get him. If we miscalculate & can't get him after trading, we fall back to Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. After that, it's BPAs and backfills. 40/56

Our trade is with the Patriots, with 9 going out, and 15, 46, and 96 coming in. The Patriots are going up for Fields in this scenario, so they're a Parsons threat who isn't taking him. The Giants have Waddle/Smith on the board, so no MLB. We need to be ahead of LVR at 17. 41/56

I discussed Etienne before, and he goes at 40 here. Greg Rousseau is my favorite pass rusher in this class, assuming I can get him starting in the late 40s. He's raw, but long and fluid, and he produced in college. I see a possible Chandler Jones with good NFL coaching. 42/56

Jalen Mayfield at 71 is a 2022 starting RT, who lets us walk away from the Ju'Wuan James Experience. Everybody had him as a first rounder 2 months ago, and he didn't get less talented since then. (People started to worry he may be a G, but I don't agree.) 43/56

Then I take 2 different safeties. Hamsah Nasrildeen is really a sub-package LB and overhang player, like a lesser Derwin James or Jamal Adams. He gets the Will Parks big nickel role. Andre Cisco at 114 is a half-field safety with range and excellent ball skills. 44/56

Wilson, Surratt, and Norwood are repeats. Toney is worth a look as a developmental pass rusher, and Felton is an interesting guy because he has played both WR and RB. He's a slot to return man in the NFL. (Maybe an IR stash kind of guy as a rookie.) 45/56

Strategy 4 - Trade Down to the bottom of Round 1, and maximize draft capital. Then take BPAs and build out the roster depth. We aren't in love with any specific players, and we primarily care about maximizing capital. After that, it's BPAs and backfills. 46/56

My 3 trades are as follows: 9 for 20, 52, 83, 164, and 206 with the Bears. (You can always get the first 4 picks, and sometimes the 5th from them.) 20 and 114 for 28, 60, and 98 with New Orleans. 28 and 164 for 32 and 64 with the Bucs. This is "more darts" in action. 47/56

What that gives me is 8 top-100 picks (after starting with 3), which is a lot of chances to improve the roster with high-end talents. We have a first, 4 seconds, and 3 thirds to work with. That's 8 people who should be starters by year 2. 48/56

The best guy left at 32 is LB Jamin Davis. Albert Breer said recently that he thinks Davis could go in the teens next week. He's a major playmaker, and an ascending player. Oweh (previously covered) is my guy at 40. I like an upside guy having all these picks. 49/56

At 52, I took OT Dillon Radunz. He has LT skills, which I like to have at RT in the modern NFL. (I was saying this at IAOFM 10 years ago, that teams have good pass rushers on both sides, and you need good protectors on both sides to match it.) 50/56

At 60, the BPA is TE Pat Freiermuth. Not a need pick, but a different type of guy than Fant, and a guy that can put a defense into personnel conflict. Play nickel, I run and you're wrong. Play base, I throw, and you're wrong. Think Gronk/Hernandez with Freiermuth/Fant. 51/56

At 64, I have another upside play with Milton Williams on the defensive line. He played FCS competition, but his athleticism is off the charts, and he produced for La. Tech. We talked about Grant at 71, and Shelvin, who I took at 98 here. 52/56

At 83, I took RB Michael Carter. I see him as a close comparable to Etienne, and a good complement to Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone. We've talked about everybody else I took here in other scenarios, except RB Chris Evans, who is just a dude I like a little bit. 53/56

So what gets us the best football outcome for purposes of this exercise? I like trading down without falling in love with anybody, and then loading up on BPAs. This is historically the best way to build a "win from now on" team. 54/56

It all really hinges on whether you think Drew Lock can improve in year 3, and/or whether one of the two QBs who will be available starting at #4 will be better than him. The answer to both could be no, and you're no better off by taking the rookie QB. 55/56

Anyway, we will see this weekend what happens. The #Broncos are well-situated, and we can all hope that the evaluators pick well, and the coaches develop the talent just as well. 56/56