US Vaccine Progress: Over 50% of the eligible population (140 million out of ~265 million) have had at least 1 dose of COVID vaccine.
Herd Immunity (80%):
125 million to go with vaccine alone.
Only 70 million more to go if we also include people who have had COVID & recovered
Herd Immunity (80%):
125 million to go with vaccine alone.
Only 70 million more to go if we also include people who have had COVID & recovered
Two assumptions: I'm assuming ~30% of children & adults have had COVID & recovered (30 million confirmed; 60 million unconfirmed).
Also assuming all people who got need 2nd dose to be fully vaccinated will eventually get it (recognizing this is not happening & we need to fix it)
Also assuming all people who got need 2nd dose to be fully vaccinated will eventually get it (recognizing this is not happening & we need to fix it)
I'd prefer 125 million more people as the minimum target for vaccination. But suspect cases will decrease quite a bit if we get 70 million more vaccinated.
The last 50 million will be hard. We will need to overcome vaccine hesitancy through people they trust.
The last 50 million will be hard. We will need to overcome vaccine hesitancy through people they trust.
The one issue we need to be cautious of that may affect the calculations is the extent of protection current vaccines offer against bad variants. I am still confident that current vaccines will protect from severe disease from variants. But wish we had more data.
The other issue is duration of protection offered by the current vaccines. We hope that the duration is long. Even years. But need more data which of course means we need time.
My guess is that we will need periodic boosters.
My guess is that we will need periodic boosters.
Other issues to keep in mind:
1) Efficacy of vaccines in immunosuppressed people
2) Efficacy of vaccine in the face of high viral dose exposures. Studying infection patterns following vaccination in healthcare workers vs age matched general population will help with this.
1) Efficacy of vaccines in immunosuppressed people
2) Efficacy of vaccine in the face of high viral dose exposures. Studying infection patterns following vaccination in healthcare workers vs age matched general population will help with this.
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