@rustneversleepz That was a widely cited article but it wasn’t state of the art at the time. I emailed Socolow in 2009 to explain his mistake of saying keeping emissions constant was a reasonable goal which he said elsewhere also. Still have the email.
@rustneversleepz This was state of the art in 2003, from @KenCaldeira Caldeira, Ken, Atul K. Jain, and Martin I. Hoffert. 2003. "Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty and the Need for Energy Without CO2 Emission " Science. vol. 299, no. 5615. pp. 2052-2054. <sciencemag.org/cgi/content/ab…>
@rustneversleepz @KenCaldeira This was state of the art in 1989 (!): Krause, Florentin, Wilfred Bach, and Jon Koomey. 1989. From Warming Fate to Warming Limit: Benchmarks to a Global Climate Convention. El Cerrito, CA: International Project for Sustainable Energy Paths. <files.me.com/jgkoomey/9jzwgj>
@rustneversleepz @KenCaldeira The importance of cumulative emissions was understood by the late 1980s, but there was later scientific confirmation that firmed up that understanding.
@rustneversleepz @KenCaldeira @BillHareClimate knows the history better than anyone, and may have more to add.
@rustneversleepz @KenCaldeira @BillHareClimate This article seems to be the one that really nailed down the cumulative emissions being proportional to warming idea:
@rustneversleepz @KenCaldeira @BillHareClimate Ricke, Katharine L., and Ken Caldeira. 2014. "Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission." Environmental Research Letters. vol. 9, no. 12. 2014/12/01. pp. 124002. [dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9…]
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