Thread by @SteB777

1) I'd like to deal with this thread as there are a lot of misleading assertions about the possibility of a civilization collapse triggered by the climate and ecological crisis.

https://twitter.com/NiranjanAjit/status/1387373159435829249

2) I cannot understand the arguments put forward in this thread, which seem ill thought out. Climate scientists are experts on the climate, not the stability of large civilizations/empires, which they do not study at all.

3) Right at the very beginning we need to remember that every civilization in human history has collapsed. They don't tend to simply fade away, they collapse. As I will explain here, there is a very simple reason for this.

4) When we talk about civilizations, we really mean empires, large territories ruled by powerful leaders, which arose through the pursuit of wealth and power, by powerful individuals.

5) These empires tend to collapse when that pursuit of growth gets obstructed and that civilization is then riven by infighting, disaffection, social unrest and internal power struggles.

6) There is absolutely no need to believe that our present civilization is any different as it has grown out of power struggles between various superpowers. It's very typical in that it is the power struggles and pursuit of wealth and power that has led to it.

7) The only real difference between our present civilization and previous ones, is that this creation of wealth has been centred around the growing exploitation of the natural environment through industrial processes, rather than an expansion of territory.

8) Just like available territory, natural resources are finite, and so this growth through increasing exploitation of natural resources is ultimately limited and will eventually grind to a halt. It can't carry on increasing or we will destroy the natural systems that sustain us.

9) Past civilizations tended to collapse through one of 2 processes. Either infighting when opportunities for growth became difficult, or instability caused by the difficulty in feeding and supplying the large population reliant on complex supply chains leading to social unrest.

10) The more an empire or civilization grows, the more unstable it becomes as it's stability relies not only on the pursuit of finite resources, but on the supply of food and other resources to keep it's huge populace happy and to maintain their lifestyle.

11) If food supplies become limited, leading to price rises, or other essentials become unaffordable to lots of people, it creates social unrest and people become unhappy with their leaders.

12) Those who dismiss ideas about the vulnerability of our civilization to collapse are not looking at the evidence. A pathological liar and impulsive individual with a clear personality disorder, Donald Trump was elected president of the US by promising to MAGA.

13) Yet Donald Trump wasn't a one off. There is a pattern of right wing nationalism and populism, posturing strongmen, promising some return to a mythical golden age of their country, which never actually existed.

14) In fact, I argue that we are already feeling the effects of the ecological crisis as politicians struggle to provide this "it's always going to get better theme" they previously used to ride into power.

15) The climate and ecological crisis is going to make this whole model in which modern politicians promise their electorate a dazzling future extremely difficult to sell maintain. Soon it's going to become apparent that infinite growth is not possible.

16) In fact, it is not unreasonable to see the whole economic system created during the industrial revolution as an inter-generational Ponzi scheme. Because it is built on a type of growth which is unsustainable.
alexsteffen.com/the_intergener…

17) The only glue that holds together our present civilization and it's component empires, both national and corporate, is the pursuit of economic growth. The pursuit of greater individual wealth. Most are working towards this one goal.

18) It's quite self-evident that you cannot have infinite growth in a finite system. The continuing declines in biodiversity, increasing climate change, limited resources, increasing pollution are going to make it difficult to sustain ourselves, let alone to sustain growth.

19) A system built on continuing growth is a system heading towards collapse. There is no ecosystem component that continues to grow, without inevitable collapse. If you disagree, please name an example, a precedent of this?

20) It's widely recognized that our present system is unsustainable i.e. a system which cannot be sustained. Ecology tells us such a system is heading towards collapse.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainab…

21) Various studies show us heading towards societal collapse unless we transition to a sustainable society/economy, which is going to mean radical change to how our societies operate.
independent.co.uk/climate-change…

22) Here's another such study.
docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_a14…

23) I've the greatest respect for climate scientists, within their area of expertise. But with all due respect I see little evidence that most who dismiss the idea of societal collapse from the impacts of the climate crisis, have much understanding of societal cohesion.

24) I would challenge all those dismissing the threat of societal collapse triggered by ACC, to produce their credentials. Not necessarily academic qualifications, but to produce some sort of reasoning to demonstrate they have actually thought it through.

25) Arguments from authority do not cut the mustard, when you have not studied any relevant field of information, and produce no evidence to support your conclusions.