Kevin Bambrough Profile picture
Apr 28, 2021 44 tweets 9 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
So, here is my thoughts on why today’s news of Sprott taking over management of Uranium Participation Corp will light this market on fire and ultimately help drive the price of #uranium much higher and faster than most realize.
As a bit of history, I’m the guy who actually conceived of uranium participation corp back in the mid 2000’s (over a sushi lunch) in the year leading up to that lunch I had aggressively pitched Eric Sprott on going big in uranium stocks and predicted a move from $11/lb to $140/lb
I had got the $140/lb simply as the inflation adjusted price from the 70’s uranium bull market and over that year we had bought 20% of most uranium juniors and a decent chunk of Cameco. We also invested in a few privates and helped some shell companies acquire uranium assets
The uranium price had run up from the teens to the low 20’s around that time and the spot market was very thin much like today.

Over the course of that lunch I was ranting (like I’ve been know to do) about how certain I was that the uranium price would be moving up soon
That I was certain that the thin market was ripe to be squeezed higher and that our stocks would all rip as the price moved up. A few hedge funds had recently bought a little physical uranium and were storing it with Cameco or Denison as req by law/regs
The lunch ended with the declaration that I was going to pitch Eric Sprott to let me launch an uranium hold co ETF and I did that very afternoon and it was an easy sell. One thing I loved most about working with Eric is that there was no fucking around. He made quick decisions
Only thing was he didn’t want me or him to be ‘wasting time’ on the ETF.We were running billions in hedge fund and equity funds and I think that year heading towards $100mm plus in incentive fees. Some years we hit $200mm of incentives. The fees from a uranium ETF would be small
So I called up my good buddy Chris Roy at Cormark (Sprott securities then) and said let’s work on this idea together. Being a brokerage you can do the raises and get 5 percent. Or $5mm in fees on the first $100mm and Eric had blessed a $20mm lead order
Anyhow, long story short, we launched it and just the news of it coming sent the uranium price up several dollars. As orders for the ipo grew and uranium was purchased the price when up a few more. I think $22 to 28.50/lb in a few months as the prospectus got filed
The vehicle came out and kept trading at a premium and issue after issue swallowed up millions of lbs of uranium. Utilities felt incredible pressure knowing the vehicle was gonna keep gobbling up supply and this forced them to scramble and start entering into long term contracts
The spot price moving up over $100/lb and with little to no spot available forced them to sign contracts to try to get a discount and deals with $75/lb floors became the rage for miners. Those that signed long term fixed deals sub $50 took a look of flack from investors.
So one thing to understand is utilities or fuel buyers will always avoid buying spot prices and pushing them higher. They have zero interest in doing that. All they want to do is secure long term contracts for supply. They prefer to sign deals with ceiling prices
They also try when possible to sign deals centered around a price like $45/lb (like they have with Cameco) but if the spot price goes up they only pay a portion of the increase.

Over supplied market like we’ve had meant they could point to a weak spot price and contract as such
Back then upc wasn’t able to issue shares at the market and needed to trade at a decent premium in order to be able to justify paying issuance fees and accretively purchase more uranium.
So here we are today. About a year off the bottom of the uranium market. Yellow cake did an issuance and some miners bought some lbs. Well the big dog in the space is upc by a country mile and it’s been notably quiet for months cause they were obviously working on this deal
In order to change to the trust format and be dual listed in Canada and the USA they needed a licensed money manager. Enter Sprott 2021 and the physical ETF powerhouse it’s become. UPC will become much like the Silver and Gold etfs and be able do ATM issuance
This is a complete game changer. It means both retail and institutional investors will be able to cause physical uranium to be purchased like never before.

UPC shares will be issued with just a slight premium and uranium will be purchased as close to real time as possible.
Many of us uranium investors have a very positive view on physical uranium but often shy away from buying upc or yellowcake at a premium knowing well that any day a deal could be announced and the premium gets crushed and you can lose a quick 5 or 10 percent. Totally kills it
Demand has in my mind been incredibly pent up as a result of the lack of a clean structure. Also, many institutions will only allocate on a deal if that. Liquidity and lack of ability to get in or out near NAV is a big concern (as it should be). Well very soon that’s solved
Not only that but consider the various uranium etfs that also hold a piece of Uranium participation corp or Yellowcake. Those etfs continually issue shares and basket buy their holdings. I imagine often pushing the premium up on upc and likely cause other shareholders to sell
So once the transition is complete when uranium stock etfs get inflows and buy upc it will directly cause uranium lbs to be purchased. This improved liquidity may end up causing some etfs to increase there weighting in upc as a result. (Btw say good bye to yellowcakes premium
I doubt yellow cake will raise much more money unless they can issue ATM as well and I don’t know AIM rules.

So, carrying on with upc. Having it nyse listed will give it much better exposure and make it eligible for many USA based funds that either cant or don’t invest in Canada
The total size of USA market is around $50 trillion vs Canada $3.5 trillion. 13x bigger.

UPC has not done an issuance yet in this #uranium bull market. It was trading at a discount last year and actually sold uranium and bought back stock because it was accretive to do so!
So the North American markets have been ‘underserved’ for a year.

I know I will be buying UPC as soon as it has the ATM ability and I know my purchase will go to new uranium purchase. I’m so fucking sure that the uranium price will be double in a few years or less...
I’ll mortgage a home to buy it. It’s the biggest no brainer safe trade you can find. If only a double in 10 years that’s 7 percent per annum. And it will double in 2 years or less.

Institutions, high net worth, and retail investors will flock to it.
So as some will argue.. that’s just noise. It was gonna happen anyhow. Well on to the next part... it’s not just about soaking up the spot market it’s about releasing this a new beast and what it does to the market psychologically
Fuel buyers / utilities are going to soon panic as they see the UPC doing volume every day and issuing shares. They will be following the spot market and wondering like all of us where the price will go next. How many more marginal lbs are available in the spot market?
Potential sellers of spot will likely decide to hang on and ‘see’ what happens. It’s a totally new dynamic and it’s effect shouldn’t be under estimated.

In the past, just prior to an issuance by a upc or yellow cake they would put a call into a trader or Denison on behalf of upc
Would seek to purchase some lbs before issuing shares. Now in the midst of a new bull Sprott will be able to issue shares and purchase 100k lbs at a time. Weekly, daily? What if there’s a big high demand day? 1mln lbs a day? I guarantee you that the spot market be absorbed
As the price starts to squeeze more and more investors will take note and be excited. It will become obvious that their is little to no spot available. As the uranium market grows and the total capitalization swells
More institutions will consider investing with the improved liquidity in uranium and the mining equities. They will take large positions in the uranium stocks and all buy uranium. In the final stage the utilities will be crying and whining to congress
The uranium investing community will soon learn the power they have and we will get sweet revenge on the utilities that didn’t give two shits about trying to support and fund the uranium mining community by just offering to pay sustainable prices.
The fact is there is fuck all uranium out there and we all know that supply is going to dramatically short for years to come. Mining supply simply can’t come on quick enough to stop the financial sector from driving the uranium price to $200/lb and holding it there
Some anonymous joker made fun of my early comments on $gme like speculators squeezing the uranium price while buying up uranium stocks. Well $gme stock traders and the like.. consider this... they have been able to push a piece is shit $5 stock to $175/sh and hold it there
That’s $12.65 billion of market cap being held in one single dog shit garbage company that not worth $500mln in most peoples mind. UPC has a market cap of just under $600mln usd.
I promise you if even $1bln tried to squeeze into the physical uranium space it will fly to $150/lb
As I’ve discussed in the past, fuel buyers can be held hostage by financial investors that are motivated to drive uranium to high prices. They will not shut down a nuclear plant because they have to pay $200, $300 or even $500/lb in the short run.
Consider what people paid for electricity in California or Texas when there was shortages. You don’t turn off the power because of modest price spikes and even $500/lb uranium would only add few cents to the power price.
The extra juice we will ultimately get in this uranium bull won’t come from rational investing, it won’t come because of the structural shortage, it will come as a result of greedy speculators that want to play a part in gaming the market. Like $gme traders.
The reckless youth who don’t give a shit if they lose $5k-10k. Half share trading half wits that take pleasure in breaking things. Especially a boring snotty industry staffed with phd’s and stuffed with arrogance. They will take great pleasure in squeezing the snot out them
And I’m gonna enjoy watching them. So come on $gme traders this is the sort of trade you’ll tell your grand kids about some day. Time to jump on the #uraniumsqueeze trade and make +10x on basket of uranium juniors.
As you think about this thread over the coming hours and days. Just consider that when UPC starts gobbling and the price is pushed to $200/lb how little leverage the utilities have. How much money uranium stock holders will make.
Last point. We’ve seen some miners buy some uranium. With improved liquidity and atm ability how many uranium miners will put more cash into physical uranium. How many fuel buyers will quietly buy some upc in there PA? Lol
“Doubling the price of uranium would add about 10% to the cost of electricity produced in existing nuclear plants” The cost of raw uranium is $0.0015/kWh $300/lb would only double the operating cost of nuclear power. #makethempay #uranium

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