Thread by @DrEricDing

📍~35% of US population has likely been infected #COVID19 as of March says CDC—115 mil infections, 97 mil symptomatic & 5.6 mil hospitalizations. This means total infections are ~4x higher than official reports. Also means 🇮🇳 undercount likely much worse.
edition.cnn.com/world/live-new…

2) It is unclear how these numbers might factor into herd immunity — including how long natural immunity might last and how much overlap there is with people who are now vaccinated.

3) The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington estimates that 30% of the US has been infected as of April 19. This is a large jump from its previous update, just one week prior, when it estimated only 22% of the US had been infected.

4) “Our estimate of the percent infected to date has increased considerably from last week due to introducing corrections for waning antibodies in our analysis of seroprevalence surveys,” the institute explained last week.

5) If we take 115 million total infections (not just confirmed cases) as the denominator, then 574k official Us deaths out of 115 mil means ~1 out of 200 infected have died in the US.

But if we go by excess deaths (including deaths that were never counted), it would be more.

6) meanwhile, in India, cases currently in India 🇮🇳 per day? Likely **13-14 million new cases per day** says renowned epidemiology institute @IHME_UW.

How many cases officially confirmed? 379k.