In a new working paper, @ellliottt, @matteopins, @sergallet, and I examine the role of Fox News Channel on U.S. Elections. We show that Fox has helped Republican candidates in elections across levels of U.S. government over the past decade. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
To approximate a natural experiment where some counties are randomly exposed to more Fox News, we focus on variation in the channel number -- i.e., when it has a lower number (e.g. 20), people watch Fox more often than when it has a higher channel number (e.g. 80).
Consistent with prior work on Fox News (e.g. @gregmartinphd), we find that Fox boosted Republicans in recent presidential elections. A one SD decrease in FNC channel position increased Trump's vote share by .6 percentage points in 2016/2020 (enough to tip several close states).
We also examine the effect of Fox on Senate, House, and governor elections. The effects in down-ballot elections are increasingly similar to those in presidential elections. These down-ballot effects likely reflect the growing nationalization of U.S. elections.
The uniformity of Fox New’s effect on elections across offices suggests that it is not simply influencing views about particular candidates. Instead, the mechanism for Fox's electoral effects appears to at least partially be that it is shifting American's Party ID & ideology.
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Some quick high-level thoughts on the election: 1) WTF happened with the polls. This is a serious issue for our democracy that scholars across social sciences should work on addressing. Polls provide crucial information about the public's preferences and we need to get it right.
2) Elections are nationalizing (ht @dhopkins1776). But still lots of spread btw Pres/Downballot in some states - ME, MT, KS, NH, etc. Suggests moderation & candidate quality still net a few percentage points on margin. Just not enough for Dems to win in places like KS.
3) Gerrymandering is really, really bad. It's undermining the fabric of our democracy. GOP gerrymanders in places like MI, NC, and WI withstood a full decade of elections.