Thread by @trevortombe

Today's COVID vaccination update:

- Total shots given: 13,420,148
- Shots per 100 people: 35.3
- Shots reported today: 288,277
- Inventory: 5.9 days (at avg pace)
- Adults w/ 1+ Shots: 39.1%

Source: covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtra…

Canada is now up to 13.4 million shots given -- which is 89.4% of the total 15.0 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 1,305,810 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 1.1 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.

Canada's pace of vaccination:

Today's 288,277 shots given compares to an average of 270,459/day over the past week and 285,887/day the week prior.

- Pace req'd for 2 doses to 75% of Canadians by Sept 30: 284,914
- At current avg pace, we reach 75% by Oct 08

Based on the share of people with 1 or more doses (a weaker threshold), at Canada's current pace we reach 50% by May and 75% by July 2021. We reach 75% of *adults only* (age 16+) by June 12.

Gray lines are past projections. This illustrates the extent of recent improvements.

But recent federal modeling suggests health measures may potentially be safely eased once 75% of adults have at least one dose and 20% have two: canada.ca/content/dam/ph…

This would require ~30 million doses be administered. We're on pace for that by June 30.

Turning to individual provinces, here's total shots given and share of delivered doses used.

- Most shots given: YT at 115 doses per 100 people
- Fewest: NS at 32

- Highest share of delivered doses used: SK with 93%
- Lowest: NU with 68%

A more detailed look at provs/terrs:

- Highest overall: YT at 62% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: QC at 34% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: YT at 53%
- Fewest Vaccinated: PE at 27%

Looking forward, here's time to reach 75% of *adults* w/ 1+ doses based on the latest 7-day average daily pace.

- MB fastest at 38 days.
- PE slowest at 63 days.

How does Canada compare to others? Currently, Canada ranks 6th out of 37 OECD countries in terms of the share of the population that is at least partially vaccinated. In terms of total doses per 100, Canada is 7th.

Source: ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat…

Canada/US comparison:

- Highest Prov: QC, 35.3% of pop w/ at least one dose
- Lowest Prov: PE, 26.7
- Highest State: NH, 60.2
- Lowest State: MS, 31.1

- Top CDN Terr: YT, 61.6
- Top US Terr: PW, 69.9

Sources: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra… and covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtra…

At Canada's latest 7-day avg daily pace, the share of people w/ 1 or more doses rises by 0.68% per day. The US rises by 0.33% per day.

- Projected out, we reach 75% 32 days before the US.
- We match the US share in 32 days.
- Reaching the current US share takes 17 days.

But that's 1+ doses, here's a comparison of daily shots given per 100 people. In Canada, this rises by 0.71 per day. The US rises by 0.77 per day.

- Projected out, we reach 100 doses 55 days after the US.
- Reaching the current US rate takes 52 days.

Finally, here's a selection across several metrics/groups of how Canada ranks globally. Pick your preferred measure!