@craigaatkinson@iang_fc@CommonAccord 1/n I was a Director of International Petroleum Exchange then (I oversaw IPE Gas Oil contract deliverable ARA) with10 yrs DTI experience as a forensic accountant in insolvency & corporate law (fraud investigation) & regulation at AFBD (one of 5 initial UK regulators) @seatradelaw
@craigaatkinson@iang_fc@CommonAccord@seatradelaw 2/n IPE developed the first Windows-based trading system & this began my 25 years interest in the area where law, accounting & ICT converge...we didn't call it Fintech then! In 1998 I raised £250k to develop NewClear, which is a generic, globally valid shared transaction registry
@craigaatkinson@iang_fc@CommonAccord@seatradelaw 3/n Three elements: bilateral messaging/ trade matching; market database schema & globally valid market user agreement/club rules which provided that once the transaction had been registered in unique time order ie no need for blockchain, it was legally binding on participants
@craigaatkinson@iang_fc@CommonAccord@seatradelaw 4/n I specified the agreement in terms of legal design & David McFarlane of Pinsent Curtis and I refined it into a robust agreement in the first #OilClear instance. Everybody wanted to own it, but if the sell-side owned it the buy-side would not use it & vice versa.
@craigaatkinson@iang_fc@CommonAccord@seatradelaw 5/n The Internet Paradox: if fintech is neutral, it's not liquid and if it's liquid it's not neutral. Proprietary 'for profit' ownership is of course not neutral - IPE was still a members club when I left in 1996. I also failed to interest Platts (not their greatest decision)
@craigaatkinson@iang_fc@CommonAccord@seatradelaw 6/n In 2001, I blew the whistle on IPE market manipulation & lost everything I had & essentially rebuilt my life from the ground up. Meanwhile ICE acquired IPE & launched eConfirm & CME subsequently launched TradeHub - both appropriating the NewClear trade capture concept.
@craigaatkinson@iang_fc@CommonAccord@seatradelaw@ISRS_UCL@scotgov 9/n The institutional legal design innovation is: 1/Deconstruct fiduciary/agency relationship into: (passive) custodian, with veto rights; (active) manager/steward subject to joint oversight of users & investors with the outcome that no single stakeholder can impose on any other
@craigaatkinson@iang_fc@CommonAccord@seatradelaw@ISRS_UCL@scotgov 10/n The legal design (re) novation is the financial instrument which I have come to define as a credit obligation ie an (undated) assignable accepted promise/IOU, returnable in payment for supply of goods & services by the issuing promissor.
@craigaatkinson@iang_fc@CommonAccord@seatradelaw@ISRS_UCL@scotgov 11/n The key point is this is not a 'hard' obligation enforceable by rule of law and which may be commoditised & exchanged ie @iang_fc Ricardian Contract : it is a 'soft' voluntary agreement as a relationship where the disciplines are transparency & self-exclusion from "clubs".
@craigaatkinson@iang_fc@CommonAccord@seatradelaw@ISRS_UCL@scotgov 12/n Here the pragmatic platform/service provider architecture of the Protection & Indemnity (P&I) club mutual assurance of shipping risks Lloyds will not take is instructive. Mutual 'clearing union' assurance of distributed performance & credit risk is the solution here
@craigaatkinson@iang_fc@CommonAccord@seatradelaw@ISRS_UCL@scotgov@UniStrathclyde 15/n In summary, digitisation of intermediated global commerce & finance founders on the underlying metaphysical point that value is definable only in relative terms & absolute binary/digital property rights can only be approximated/hacked by judges in whatever jurisdiction
@BobMurphyEcon@Coach_JIB@intangiblecoins@WilliamJLuther 1/n While a currency may have a USD exchange rate it does not have a $ 'market cap'. Bitcoin displays the monetary scarcity/liquidity paradox obscured by gold's residual utility: to the extent a currency is scarce it is not liquid & to the extent it is liquid it is not scarce.
@BobMurphyEcon@Coach_JIB@intangiblecoins@WilliamJLuther 2/n In my analysis, at the heart of the monetary relationship is the credit obligation (promise). This is not an exchangeable object, but an assignable (IOU) relationship between subject & object returnable in exchange for useful goods & services to be provided by the promissor
'Oil war' bollocks hid the reality of a Covid demand shock blowing through a Saudi-funded WTI peg. So Saudi pumped like mad & sent a fleet to deliver into the May 2020 WTI delivery window. Why? The reason is USO oil fund
@Big_Orrin 2/n Both @petromatrix & @izakaminska documented strange 'bloat' of USO (in 2009) when Supercontango bizarrely combined with a rising market. They both remarked on a similar bloat in 2015 (I think) & Izzy wrote some great stuff on #DarkInventory@FTAlphaville
@Big_Orrin@petromatrix@izakaminska@FTAlphaville 3/n Now, a $2bn USO pool of physical crude oil which required only 30m bbl at $70/bbl required 80m bbl at $25/bbl. Hence Saudi panic pumping & wave of oil to the Gulf during the May 2020 window. This informs the barking mad April 20 May WTI 2020 expiry