Many thanks for comments received on Amb E-J von Studnitz’s recent article (see attached🧵👇) about Russia & Germany.
These are important reflections on an existentially significant matter for the Euro-Atlantic alliance & the world.
My initial thoughts in response. A short🧵/1.
These are important reflections on an existentially significant matter for the Euro-Atlantic alliance & the world.
My initial thoughts in response. A short🧵/1.
https://twitter.com/andrewprlevi/status/1388094476619554818
The biggest challenge raised by the analysis in the article is the apparent complete lack of willingness of the Putin-Russian power elite to engage in hoped for manner. It would surely be to the benefit of Russia if it did. /2.
And, as the article convincingly sets out, there’s no (good) alternative for Russia. But it would be disastrous to Putin & his power grouping. Or, at least, they couldn’t have any confidence that it wouldn’t be. /3.
Given the dynamic that implies, the serious dilemma the US, Germany & the wider Euro-Atlantic Alliance face is whether pursuing a long, patient, persistent policy of many small steps - as set out in Amb von Studnitz’s article - will make the situation worse or better. /4.
Better, for the reasons set out by Amb von Studnitz.
Worse, if there’s no prospect of a good-faith, willing partner on the Russian side. /5.
Worse, if there’s no prospect of a good-faith, willing partner on the Russian side. /5.
In which case, the policy either:
(a) degenerates into a series of compromises, conscious or otherwise, which undermine the fundamentals of European peace & security. By definition, as they’re compromises with a regime whose goals and actions are incompatible with either; .../6.
(a) degenerates into a series of compromises, conscious or otherwise, which undermine the fundamentals of European peace & security. By definition, as they’re compromises with a regime whose goals and actions are incompatible with either; .../6.
... or
(b) simply kicks the can down the road, delaying an inevitable confrontation, potentially to a point where the Putin’s power elite have so strengthened themselves that the Alliance faces a much bigger and more dangerous task than now. /7.
(b) simply kicks the can down the road, delaying an inevitable confrontation, potentially to a point where the Putin’s power elite have so strengthened themselves that the Alliance faces a much bigger and more dangerous task than now. /7.
Describing option (b) has terrifying echoes the 1910s & 1930s, all the more so given the huge scale of nuclear armament involved now, which was non-existent then. Terrifying or not, it’s an important part of our current reality. /8.
Short of an unexpected, dramatic improvement in circumstances - a positive transformation in Russia - a space avoiding the pitfalls of both (a) and (b) is, no doubt, where the Alliance would wish to be. /9.
Confronting, containing & disrupting the Putin power grouping, without compromise or potentially disastrous violence. And, drip by drip, creating change in Russia which, over time, leads it to the European future Amb von Studnitz describes.
Is that (still) possible? /10. End
Is that (still) possible? /10. End
Correction to tweet 2: “in hoped for manner” should read “in the hoped for manner”.
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