Thread by @JacobRubashkin

It's ELECTION DAY in Texas' 6th Congressional District! Here's what you need to know (thread):

-It's to replace Rep. Ron Wright (R), who died after being hospitalized with covid
-There are 23 candidiates (11R, 10D) all on one ballot
-If none gets a majority, it goes to a runoff

-Much of the district is in Tarrant County (Fort Worth/Arlington)
-It could be the FIRST competitive D vs. R special election of the Biden Era
-In 2012, Romney carried the district by 17%, but Trump won it by just 12% in 2016 and 3% in 2020
-Ted Cruz won it by just 3% in 2018

-It's a crowded contest!
-Top GOP contenders: Susan Wright, Rep. Wright's widow; state Rep. Jake Ellzey; former Trump HHS official Brian Harrison
-Top Dem contenders: 2018 nominee Jana Lynne Sanchez; 2020 state house nominee Lydia Bean; nonprofit executive Shawn Lassiter

What does the polling say? @InsideElections published the first two polls of the race last month, showing Wright and Sanchez at the head of the pack, with Ellzey and Harrison in the middle and Bean and Lassiter further back.

But the race hasn't remained static. For instance...

Ellzey and Harrison have started to move closer to the top of the pack, each looking more viable for one of the two runoff spots.

And Sanchez hasn't been able to build on her initial base of support; Lassiter and Bean are picking up real support.

So what happened?

-Ellzey has built up some momentum with fundraising
-Harrison is running broadcast TV ads
-The anti-tax Club for Growth is spending big against Ellzey
-Donald Trump recently waded into the race and endorsed Wright; several other candidates had been hoping to get his endorsement

-On the Democratic side, there's been minimal attempts at consolidation
-Sanchez has support from some national groups like the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and Nuestro PAC
-Bean has an endorsement from AFL-CIO
-Lassiter picked up endorsements from Collective PAC and 314 Action

-There's been minimal interest in the race among Dems in DC, who still largely view the district as GOP territory
-That's created the possibility of a lockout for Democrats, where their support is fractured among 3 candidates and none of them place in the top 2 for the runoff

One minor thing that's been on my mind. The few candidates who could win have been relatively uncovered.

Instead, so much of the coverage has centered on two candidates who have virtually no shot: anti-Trump Republican Michael Wood, and former pro wrestler Dan Rodimer.

Wood has become something of a darling among anti-Trump and post-Trump GOP circles. His candidacy is being hyped up as this all-important test for the GOP about its future relationship to Trump, when in reality he's a non-factor in polling, fundraising, and on the ground support.

Rodimer is also a non-factor in the race and didn't even live in Texas until he filed to run. But his over-the-top campaign has drawn oodles of national attention anyways (I'm guilty of this too) for how ridiculous it is.

If you were only casually paying attention to this race, you might be forgiven for thinking that it was a Wood vs. Rodimer battle royale.

We know special elections are special. They can be unpredictable, and a 23-person field can be especially so.

But that doesn't mean we should undersell or even flat-out ignore the candidates who are most likely to win or advance in favor of candidates who stand very little chance of success, and I worry that's what's happened in this race.

And now I'll come down from my soapbox.