COVID-19 Breakthrough Case Investigations and Reporting | CDC… via @CDCgov

95,000,000+ fully vaccinated
9,245 infections (0.01%)
594 COVID-related hospitalizations (0.0006%)
112 COVID-related deaths (0.0001%)

However... 1/
If you calculate the IFR of SARS-CoV-2 among the vaccinated using these (admittedly imperfect) data, you get 112/9,245=1.2%. This would mean IFR is higher than among the unvaccinated. But 45% of breakthrough cases post vaccination are among those ≥60. So maybe not.

But... 2/
The bottom line is that these vaccines for COVID-19 are miraculously effective. So far, only about 1 in a million people who are vaccinated have died from COVID-19. And reports so far show amazing safety, too. Get vaccinated. For yourself. For your family. For your community. 3/
For avoidance of confusion, let me add: Given one set of data issues here (e.g., likely under-reporting of asymptomatic cases), we can also calculate the CFR as 112/6,720=1.6%, which is at the upper end of consensus estimates of the CFR in unvaccinated people. 4/
More data: after vaccination, the known "breakthrough" rate of COVID infections in San Diego County among >1 million vaccinees is 0.02% (234 cases, 55% with no symptoms).… via @EricTopol 5/

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More from @NAChristakis

27 Apr
I admire @joerogan. His conversational style & his reach are phenomenal. But I think his advice that young people not get vaccinated misses the mark. Young people are at low risk of death no matter what. COVID19 increases their risk by ~30%. Why not avoid this with a safe shot?
Furthermore, young people also need to do their part for benefit of our society. Rich people need to pay more taxes. Healthcare workers take a risk of death. So have essential workers. Many have suffered. It’s not a lot to ask to simply get a vaccine to help restore our society.
Calculations very rough: a 21 yo man has ~0.05% chance of death if infected with SARS-CoV-2. Actuarial risk of death in next year at baseline was 0.1288% (…). Getting infected increases risk of death (from a low baseline).
Read 4 tweets
8 Apr
This case is mind boggling. “UVA argued [in court!] that a public university student mildly objecting to microaggression theory was offensive speech and thus not covered by First Amendment.”

The petty totalitarians who consider themselves faculty at UVA should be deeply ashamed.
In many of these cases, one finds oneself asking if faculty and administrators are dead set on life imitating art.…
The standards applied in this UVA case are so at odds with so much student protest (eg…).

A committee ‘voted to send Bhattacharya a written reminder to "show mutual respect" to faculty and "express yourself appropriately,”’ and suggested he get counseling.
Read 5 tweets
15 Mar
There is an intriguing theory about “COVID toes.” You can get it as a result of SARS-CoV-2 infecting you.

But you can also – perhaps – get it *without* being infected, as a result of hanging out at home for long periods without shoes. It's an epidemiological puzzle. 1/
COVID toes are thought to be a known, albeit formerly rare, condition called chilblains (also known as pernio). This used to be the bane of people living in cold damp climates (think British boarding schools, or New England). #COVIDtoes 2/
Chilblains is characterized by inflammatory skin lesions in patients exposed to non-freezing weather during late winter or early spring. These lesions typically present as painful erythrocyanotic (red-blue) discoloration, often with dead skin, on the toes, fingers, or both. 3/
Read 17 tweets
7 Mar
So much fun. And I get to see my friend @RealClancyBrown Image
I had forgotten that the oscillation overthruster was invented @PrincetonPhys #buckaroobanzai
“Buckaroo, you forgot your overthruster.”
Read 7 tweets
21 Feb
We are racing to vaccinate the US and worldwide population for COVID19 for many reasons: to prevent deaths, limit emergence of dangerous strains, and achieve herd immunity. Let’s talk about the spread of vaccination behavior. 1/
We can think of some of our behavioral responses to an epidemic like #COVID19 (e.g., mask wearing, getting vaccinated) as a kind of *social contagion*, spreading from person to person, which in turn addresses the *biological contagion*. 2/
In 2017, we published a reconstruction of the temporal dynamics of the spread of vaccination behavior and of the H1N1 influenza virus during the 2009 pandemic in a circumscribed social network of @harvard students.… via @SciReports @nature 3/
Read 20 tweets
8 Jan
Twitter permanently suspends Donald Trump account. I understood why they resisted until now, despite his prior violations, given the fact that he was president, but consistency is so important to values and public policy. Still, better late than never.…
My key issue here is consistency. If others had to abide Twitter rules, I never liked that politicians, incl Trump, didn’t.

Distinctly, I also feel that monopolistic companies (eg, public square ones — see classic case of malls) might need to be regulated like public utilities.
This is a good example of why consistency is important and also so difficult. Will Twitter now delete any other accounts violating its rules?

To be clear, directly fomenting violence (and insurrection) is a special kind of speech.
Read 11 tweets

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