I remember, when I was a Christian, thinking that Christianity was the best explanation for the way things were, and I assumed that people who left the faith must have thought they’d found a “better” explanation. 1/4
However, I can now freely admit that leaving the faith wasn’t about finding a better explanation. Rather, it was about finally abandoning my insistence that there be an explanation in the first place. 2/4
I haven’t replaced Christianity with a system that adequately explains the mysteries of the Universe. Instead, I am trying to fully embrace and accept the mystery. To let it linger. To resist the impulse to demand a resolution. 3/4
So, to my former self, who thought he’d never be able to live without the existential safety net of a well-defined God: I have found letting go to be more beautiful than holding on. Pulling up the roots has left me feeling strangely rooted. 4/4
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The Coronavirus model projections have changed as time has passed. Not surprisingly, this has emboldened the anti-science movement in America. But, this is actually a great opportunity to watch science happen in real-time, and there are some important lessons: (Thread)
First, models are estimates. Educated guesses based on assumptions. And any model for a previously unknown virus is precarious. Still, even in the early days of an unfolding pandemic, they are by far the best way to determine our initial response.
Exponential models, in particular, are susceptible to wild swings in numerical projections based on small tweaks to inputs. That’s math. And, as better info is gathered (which continues to happen very quickly at this stage in a pandemic) the numbers will continue to change.