Thread by @ashishkjha

At what point should we see cases in US begin to drop sharply from vaccinations?

Complicated but experience from Israel says 45-50% of population vaccinated

US is shy of that

But some states past that threshold

So do we have evidence its working there?

Why yes we do

Thread

Lets look at top 5 vaccinated states

NH, MA, CT, VT, ME

All >50% of population 1+ dose

So what's happening with cases (c/w 2 wks ago)?

NH down 44%
MA down 37%
CT down 40%
VT down 46%
ME down 42%

I know, all New England states

Lets look broadly at cases & vaccinations

2/4

If we take the 10 states with largest drop in cases

Average vaccination rate 49.8%

The 10 states where cases actually rising?

Avg vaccination rate 39.9%

It appears somewhere around 45-50% population vaccinated (65% or so adults vaccinated)

cases really turn down

3/4

Hardly definitive but appears around 50% of population (65% adults) vaccinated may be turning point

Obviously, other factors like underlying prior infection rate also important

But nationally, slow decline in cases masking sharp drops in states with high vaccination rates

Fin