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3 May, 14 tweets, 3 min read
1) A while ago I wrote up some thoughts on VCs:



Here are some updates:
2) One really refreshing change over the last decade has been the transition to "founder-friendly" VCs.

What does this mean, and why did it happen?
3) What it means, roughly, is VCs seeing themselves as helping and supporting the companies, not running them; and terms/etc. starting to reflect that.
4) I'm not sure why it happened, but I have some guesses.

What are the biggest US companies today?

AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, FB, TSLA.
5) I think VCs have looked at those companies and tried to back-out what went well for them.

And one thing that they have in common is that for the most part the companies managed to drive their own success.

With a ton of support from others! But ultimately the team mattered.
6) (I re-watched The Social Network recently. There were a lot of issues with the movie--its highest duty was to a tell a juicy story, not to tell the truth!

But I think it did reflect _some_ things well, and I think that the Zuckerberg/Parker/Thiel/VC dynamic is one of them.)
7) I think it's tempting to have the takeaway "you should let companies run themselves", and I think that's probably not quite right.

More what I'd say is:

If a company is run really well, you should let it run itself.

If not, then intervening makes more sense.
8) And so I think the story is different here for reclamation investments.
9) Another thing I've noticed:

it can be _really_ bad to hamstring a company, _unless_ you really know what you're doing.

There are exceptions to this! Acquisitions can cut off some options, but they create a ton more.
10) But it's often bad for a company to sell too much of its equity.

Because at some point, it just doesn't have enough left for its employees. At some point the incentives don't work, and the team is working for a passive investor.

And that makes motivation *really* hard.
11) The final thing, I think, is maintaining a great relationship between the team and their investors.

Without that, investments tend to be negative sum.

The biggest piece of this: do you believe in each other?
12) Does the team believe that the VC will fight for them?

Does the VC believe that the team will do well?

It's fine to have to do diligence on this!

But once you _have_ gotten to that point, you have to have some trust, or there's no point in investing.
13) Another thing:

There are lots of companies and tokens that are up a LOT this year.

Like 1,000%. Sometimes more.

I guess I used to worry about 20% changes in terms more than I do now.
14) And finally:

A lot of the things up a lot are not things that I was a fan of.

Many have done well anyway.

Some of that is luck, but some isn't.

And it's made me wonder why I thought about them wrong.

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More from @SBF_Alameda

4 May
1) For the first time, FTX is spending nontrivial amounts of money on branding. Why?
2) Well, first, why haven't we?

Because our core userbase doesn't really care.

Our core userbase has been, basically, you all who are reading this tweet.

And if you're reading this tweet, you already know way more about FTX than our brand will convey.
3) But there are a lot of other people in the world--people who haven't heard of most crypto exchanges.

And they've been bombarded for years with ads for a few high profile retail applications.

And those people are increasingly getting into crypto.
Read 6 tweets
22 Apr
1) Can momentum exist?
2) NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
3) yes, it can
Read 24 tweets
19 Apr
1) A Tale of Two Crashes:

Coinbase, FTX, and the future of crypto.
2) Just over a year ago, crypto had its worst day ever.

BTC crashed roughly $4500 top to bottom, from $8k to $3500, stabilizing just over $5k.
3) And the industry almost ended, maybe.

Why?
Read 25 tweets
18 Apr
1) Some FTX facts today:

a) I don't think we had any downtime, which was great! And markets were decently liquid all things considered.

b) Withdrawals are ~1 hour backlogged, sorry -- we have ratelimts on #/sec to process, we'll take those up. (also, you know, gas.)
2) c) FTX has never clawed back anyone from liquidations of others.

We have, once in a while, ADL'ed, though those fills are at market or better.

But we never want to do that.

So we've jacked up BLP capacity to prevent it in the future.
3) And for anyone who got ADL'ed, today, we've just compensated your accounts with USD:

--if the ADL was good marked to now, you kept it
--if the ADL was bad marked to now, you got USD equal to the difference in market prices
Read 5 tweets
16 Apr
1) Some thoughts on BNB's most recent burn:

2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

lots of approximations here
3) Based on the original specs, BNB was going to burn 20% of profit.

Based on this update (binance.com/en/blog/421499…), it's now unclear what they'll burn, but maybe something like: 80% of profit (up to 100m tokens, and nothing after that)
Read 5 tweets
8 Apr
2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. NOT TRADING ADVICE.

(Sorry for the deleted thread -- had a key typo at the start...)
3) People constantly want higher ratelimits.

But not all orders are the same.

The core metric here: $ volume per order sent. In other words, how efficient are your orders?
Read 8 tweets

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