SACMC released a report on potential 3rd wave scenarios: buff.ly/3aYKW0X. Monitoring trends in cases, eg. on sacmcepidemicexplorer.co.za, is the best indicator of when a 3rd wave is likely to begin. [1/5]
In summary: In the absence of new variant, the peak of the 3rd wave is expected lower than the 2nd wave, and time from initial increase in transmission to peak is on average 2-3 months. [2/5]
Across all ages, hospital admissions are expected lower than in 2nd wave. Admissions in each province depend on seroprevalence after 2nd wave, age distribution and prevalence of comorbidities, individual responses to increasing case numbers and to restrictions. [3/5]
Gauteng could experience a more severe 3rd wave than other provinces, based on its age distribution and some studies showing lower seroprevalence estimates than in other provinces. Seroprevalence is a measure of previous exposure to SARS CoV-2. [4/5]
In 2 of 5 scenarios, defined by different behavioural responses, Gauteng was projected to experience a 3rd wave that would be more severe than its 2nd wave. In the three remaining scenarios, the 3rd wave was projected to be similar to or lower than the 2nd wave. [5/5]
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