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South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium Profile picture
South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium
@saCOVID19mc
We provide, assess and validate model projections to help SA government & partners plan the COVID-19 response. Coordinated by @NICD_SA
Dec 19, 2021 • 14 tweets • 13 min read
[Thread] South Africa has seen a recent rapid rise in #SARSCoV2 cases & unprecedented number of reinfections.

We've been working on bounding the levels of transmissibility & immune evasion that could explain #Omicron's spread in 🇿🇦.

sacmcepidemicexplorer.co.za/downloads/Pear…

#NotYetPeerReviewed We find that #Omicron is likely more transmissible than #Delta. This finding holds across a wide range of assumptions about immune evasion that are consistent with early neutralization studies.

Our analysis includes several steps.

#NotYetPeerReviewed Fig 4: Estimated transmissibility & immune evasion relations
Nov 2, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
[1/4] The recent observed increase in COVID-19 cases in Gauteng province is primarily due to a reporting delay for antigen test results. The case plots and metrics on the SACMC Epidemic Explorer are also affected by the reporting delay. [2/4] Note that the Sustained Increase Monitoring plots on SACMC Epidemic Explorer are useful to interpret trends in cases over time.
Jun 17, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
[1/5] CITY OF JOHANNESBURG Update: High case incidence across all sub-districts over the last week and extremely high case numbers reported in Regions C, D, E and F; cases increasing by 62%-150% compared to 7 days prior. [2/5] TSHWANE Update: High case incidence across all sub-districts ranging between 62 and 525 cases per 100k pop. Increases of 80%-144% compared to the 7 days prior.

Visit sacmcepidemicexplorer.co.za to follow cases and hospitalizations in your region.
Jun 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
[1/4] In light of the high number of cases reported, we present an update for several provinces which have an increase in cases: Gauteng has had a 12-90% increase in daily new cases, and high case incidence (105-192/100k pop). Image [2/4] KwaZulu-Natal, in almost all districts, has had cases increase by 50%-187% compared to 7 days prior. Six districts have a MEDIUM risk incidence (12-24 cases/100k pop). There have been upticks in eThekwini, iLembe and uMgungundlovu. Image
May 3, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
SACMC released a report on potential 3rd wave scenarios: buff.ly/3aYKW0X. Monitoring trends in cases, eg. on sacmcepidemicexplorer.co.za, is the best indicator of when a 3rd wave is likely to begin. [1/5] In summary: In the absence of new variant, the peak of the 3rd wave is expected lower than the 2nd wave, and time from initial increase in transmission to peak is on average 2-3 months. [2/5]