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Craig Profile picture
@TheLawyerCraig
May 4, 2021 • 18 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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#COVID19 UPDATE THREAD – MAY 3

All graphics are 7-day averages. Today’s raw reporting for each metric is in the tweet below.

(Data retrieved directly from state dashboards. Not every state updates its numbers daily.)

UNITED STATES
Today’s raw reported metrics:

- Tests: 1,211,012 (-206,007)

- Cases: 45,265 (-8,679)

- Deaths: 362 (-61)

- Currently Hospitalized: 35,414 (-184)

- Currently in ICU: 7,346 (-84)

(+/- compared to same day last week for Tests/Cases/Deaths & yesterday for Hosp/ICU)
Drops across all metrics, and we hit another new low positive testing percentage again today. Average daily cases have dropped week-over-week by double-digit percentages for the past 13 days straight. Hopefully that trend continues.
I’m also hoping we finally start to see some real downward movement in reported deaths this week, but we’re at the mercy of states continuing to report much older deaths (still seeing more-than-negligible numbers of 2020 deaths coming out in current reporting).
I wrote a short piece for The Issue that went out to subscribers this morning. Please click the link and give it a read if you have a moment. There will be a Part II to this piece coming soon:
thelawyercraig.substack.com/p/our-covid-me…
Even bigger news though—Bergdorf turned 2 today! So, of course, he got a little write-up as well:
thelawyercraig.substack.com/p/happy-birthd…
I’ll post the regionals tonight. Just give me a little bit!
MICHIGAN
TEXAS
CALIFORNIA
FLORIDA
SOUTHEAST
(AL, AR, GA, KY, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN)
SOUTHWEST
(AZ, NM, NV, OK, UT)
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ROCKIES
(CO, ID, MT, OR, WA, WY)
GREAT PLAINS
(IA, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD)
GREAT LAKES
(IL, IN, OH, WI)
*Removed MI from trend data, but peaks still include MI data
MID-ATLANTIC
(DC, DE, MD, PA, VA, WV)
NORTHEAST
(CT, MA, ME, NH, NJ, NY, RI, VT)

*Updated--thanks to those of you who pointed out that something looked off!

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More from @TheLawyerCraig

Craig Profile picture
Jan 24
A few days ago, I stumbled upon an exchange between @michaelsfuhrer, @greg_travis, @karencutter4, @PienaarJm.

The crux is Greg’s claim of a sharp increase from 2022 to 2023 in 18-44yo deaths from disease in the US (his graphic below).

Greg is wrong.

Join me on a 12-pack 🧵 Image
2/ It quickly became apparent that the main point of contention was whether including R99-coded deaths (“Other ill-defined and unspecified causes of mortality”) in Greg's definition of deaths from disease, as they are later re-coded to non-disease deaths. Image
3/ Oh, but not to worry. Greg states that "R99 itself is a tiny portion of overall deaths and generally resolves to <2,000 deaths a month overall (out of 300K deaths a month)."

True, Greg—but how long do they take to resolve

Quite a while, it seems... Image
Read 14 tweets
Craig Profile picture
May 16, 2022
Weekly #Covid19 update in my Substack newsletter, The Issue. Just click the link below.

I'll excerpt a few portions below, but the upshot is: steady rise in cases/% positive, lower rise in Hosps, even lower for ICUs, and continued decline in deaths.
thelawyercraig.substack.com/p/covid-19-wee…
"Despite the rise in other metrics, deaths late last week dropped below 300 (7-day-average) for the first time since June/July 2021. ICU census is still well below pre-Omicron pandemic lows."
"Perhaps the best news right now is global Covid deaths. According to Our World in Data, global daily confirmed Covid-19 deaths (7DA) have dropped to 1,772. For comparison, . . . our lowest ever number globally was 4,436 before Omicron entered the picture."
Read 6 tweets
Craig Profile picture
May 7, 2022
I cannot overstate the absolute idiocy of touting this study purporting to show Omicron is just as likely to send someone to the hospital or the morgue as Delta.

There are 2 enormous issues with this study (among others, I'm sure).

Thread 🧵
2/ ISSUE #1: The authors use PCR positives as the case denominator and just assume that the "case-to-infection" ratio was similar between all 4 periods. Unbelievable.

The fact that a study can look at the data and just say this boggles my mind. Just read that green highlighting!
3/ Here were Massachusetts' peak positive testing percentages for the 4 different periods in the study (data = @CDCgov)

8.69% - Winter 20-21
2.62% - Spring 21 (sub-1% for 38 days!)
4.47% - "Delta" (per the study)
23.36% - "Omicron"

One of these things is not like the others.
Read 10 tweets
Craig Profile picture
May 6, 2022
#Covid19 in South Africa...5th wave? Well, that depends on what metric you use to define wave.

Thread 🧵🧵🧵
2/ If you look at 7DA cases, it's a clear increase. It's a long way off from the OG Omicron peak (and not quite as vertical), but they're still up ~4x in barely over 2 weeks.
3/ But everywhere is testing a bit less these days, so what about % positive? Yep, even more vertical, and more closely resembles the prior waves.

Of course, these are all just tests/infections. Let's look at outcomes...
Read 9 tweets
Craig Profile picture
Apr 28, 2022
Heading your way, Music City.
Just realized this will be my first maskless flight since Covid hit.
In the airport generally, we’re probably at ~20% in masks. Seems a bit lower at my gate.
Read 5 tweets
Craig Profile picture
Apr 2, 2022
Guess it's time for a #Covid19 data update, seeing as how tweets like Taylor Lorenz's below can somehow still exist as of this morning.

Thread 🧵🧵🧵
2/ CASES (7-day-average, @CDCgov data)

Current: 25,980 as of 3/31
Peak: 806,571 on 1/15/22

Down 96.8% from peak. Currently in a plateau-ish trough nationally, but rising in the Northeast right now (as many of us predicted).
3/ % POSITIVE (7-day-average, @CDCgov data)

Current: 2.5% as of 3/29
Peak: 29.49% on 1/7/22

Down 91.5% from peak. Seeing a rise nationally from recent low of 2.13%. During the entire pandemic, was only lower in June 2021 than our recent numbers.
Read 9 tweets

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