A few quick comments on that Hartlepool poll. You may recall that last time the past vote was very odd - despite Brexit party getting 25% in 2019, Survation could barely find any former BP voters.
That is NOT the case this time - the sample looks fine on that front.
That is NOT the case this time - the sample looks fine on that front.
(I'm guessing that means Damian did what he suggested he might, and prompted on the recall Q)
Secondly, any phone poll like this you *still* get comments along the lines of "well, if you only ring landlines!"
No phone polls only ring landlines. It rang mobiles too.
No phone polls only ring landlines. It rang mobiles too.
The poll may be wrong, but it certainly won't be wrong for either of those reasons.
I've also seen people question the 300 sample size. That's the number of people who actually gave a VI once you take away the don't knows and won't votes. The actual sample size was about 500, which is typical for a constituency poll.
Constituency polls are, as I've said before, incredibly hard to do, and have a somewhat patchy record. If you look over constituency polls from 2019 you'll find some that were bang on, and some that really did fall short.
But there's no reason to doubt this one in particular (and given the scale of the Tory lead, it would have to be very wrong for Labour to win)
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