Thread by @anthonyjwells

Rule 1 in interpreting public opinion should be too look at the polling in the round. Public opinion can be nuanced and complicated and taking one single poll finding that appears to back up your preconceptions and ignoring the wider picture can be deeply misleading (1/...)

So, given there's been some of that sort of rubbish written about polling on No Deal today here's a quick thread summarising what YouGov's recent polls on No Deal have actually said - giving both sides of the story

First - a No Deal Brexit (or "Leaving the European Union without any deal", which is the wording we use to avoid ambiguity) is seen as a bad outcome. Only 25% think it would be good for Britain, 50% bad.

Second - while people don't like No Deal, they do not believe some of the more extreme warnings of doom & disaster. Only 35% think warnings of food & medicine shortages are realistic, 47% think they are invented or exaggerated

Third - No Deal is only the preferred choice of 26% of people. 11% would prefer the govt deal, 12% would prefer a customs union/single market deal, 37% would like another ref and to stay after all.

However, if push came to shove, if the deadline was upon us and the EU would not grant any more extensions, in that forced choice situation 44% would prefer No Deal, 42% would prefer to stay. Though of course, that's asking about a hypothetical situation we aren't in. Yet.

Links to all the results are here (because the other rule is you should go and look at the actual tables, not just believe stuff people stick out on twitter!)
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…