Netanyahu never really tried to form a government, he never even bothered to really discuss this issue with voters or Israel as a whole...because it never mattered to him. He kept on governing even with endless elections. He saw not building a Coaliton as a success. Not a failure
All the shenanigans over the last two years, whether annexation or nonsense about direct elections of a PM, or trying to even pass bizarre legislation shielding people from prosecution, or the justice minister thing or Edelstein or whatever...it was all a game of distraction
There was one goal: break the center, exploit sectarian parties enough to create a right wing and religious block for any other type of government.
Break them, divide them, do whatever it takes to erode the center. Leave behind no competitors only third string politicians who attract a handful of mandates to make it appear only Netanyahu can do it.
People said it’s all about the trial, even the first lockdown timing near the trial date and the Gantz concessions to accept second fiddle...but Netanyahu always held most of the cards, even in apparent defeat.
Whatever interesting development happened such as Ra’am; it was never enough to change the map. The electoral map is the same map. Voters do not punish Netanyahu for the trial or endless elections.
March 23, 2021: Likud, 1.06
March 2020: Likud 1.35 million
Sept 2019: Likud 1.15 million
April 2019: Likud 1.14 million

Turnout accounts for some of the changes. But it’s not a huge difference.
Netanyahu is partly a master domestic politician, but he believes that what he is doing on the regional and world stage is what matters and he doesn’t offer a major vision to voters. He just says “I’m right wing” and that became enough for a block.

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More from @sfrantzman

5 May
Long thread: In 2019-2020 Turkey met senior Hamas leaders twice, in a red carpet welcome in August 2020 and with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul on December 14, 2019.
Now, that timeline, the December meeting was just after Turkey had threatened the US and basically got a green light for an invasion of Syria to attack the US-backed SDF; abandoning US posts which Russia would soon enter and sign a deal with Turkey; bbc.com/news/world-mid…
So let's understand the context. Back in 2019 Turkey had such a hold over US policy, via pro-Ankara individuals who wanted to outsource the "anti-ISIS" campaign to Ankara, even though we know Ankara had done nothing against ISIS...and ISIS members had mostly fled to Turkey.
Read 28 tweets
4 May
Iran’s operations in the region have to be seen writ large in their complexity and extent; and it is massive. For instance Lebanon
Less well documented but you can’t go a day without evidence of Iran’s role in the Houthi #dronewars and rocket programs reuters.com/world/middle-e…
Read 4 tweets
4 May
It’s not a coincidence. The US recognized the genocide, so Ankara’s response, like all hateful regimes is to attack minorities. If you want to understand the sickening logic of Ankara’s horrid regime it is that it’s not enough to deny genocide, they then slander survivors
Ankara is the same regime that critiques Islamophobia in Europe and of course thinks you should not mention the religion or ethnicity of terrorists in Europe. Ok. But, the same hypocritical awful regime then singles out ethnic groups as “terrorist”. It’s so awful and hateful.
There is a reason they launched a campaign across Turkish media against Armenians just after the US recognized the genocide. Ankara’s media machine run by the ruling party, a state apparatus of 100% propaganda and regime messaging...Pushing incitement
Read 5 tweets
4 May
Well well, after all the talk of reconciliation...Ankara actually for a visit out of it.
This also happened...which if you look at it, this means Ankara is moving from the reconciliation propaganda to actually doing things...can it will 🇸🇦 🇪🇬 to reconcile?
Now remember also Saudi Arabia and Iran are talking and Riyadh is talking to Damascus
Read 5 tweets
1 May
Israel’s IDF says that when the army home front command went to help at Meron soldiers were attacked “At the beginning of Home Front Command assistance in the grave area at Mount Meron, a number of civilians were physically and verbally violent against IDF female soldiers”
“who were evacuating injured civilians. The troops persisted and completed their mission regardless of the offensive behavior”
No one was detained for attacking the women soldiers apparently because apparently it is not a problem from government’s point of view for specific targeting of women uniform, attacked because they are women by male religious fascists.
Read 8 tweets
30 Apr
One example of why the peace deals between 🇮🇱 🇦🇪 🇧🇭 matter so much can be seen in the outpouring of solidarity from Gulf states after Meron tragedy compared to the awful tweets celebrating the deaths from pro-Hezbollah and other regional voices. Normalization and coexistence
The importance of seeing the other as a person through humanization is so important for the region. One reason you can see that the “resistance” or “armed struggle” was never about just borders or politics but rather genocidal can be seen in those supporting harm to innocent
It can take a generation or more educate toward tolerance snd seeing others as equals and as people; but you have to begin somewhere. The vile comments from many social media accounts with thousands of followers after last night’s tragedy, including hashtags and hate are awful
Read 5 tweets

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