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AllDayFaders Profile picture
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5 May, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Interesting tweet I just got tagged on. Let's get one thing straight:

first off, ANY profitable trader who tells u they dont "backtest" is lying their ass off. EVERYONE "backtests". we just use different approaches. Backtesting simply means consulting history to make a decision.
Ask ANY profitable trader "are there certain trades u avoid?". and they'll tell u yes. Ask them "why", they ll tell u "b/c historically i dont do well on those". guess what.. that's a form of backtesting. u're just consulting ur own historical performance to make that decision
did you ever get advice from a friend or mentor and used it to guide u in your niche or trading? well guess what.. u just consulted that trader's experience or historical performance on that specific niche to guide u. THAT's a form of "backtesting".
So miss me with that "i dOnT bAcKtEsT" bullshit. EVERYONE consults the past to make trading decisions. There's a reason profitable traders tend to stick to their own niche, & avoid shit they have zero experience on. We all consult historical performance or past experiences
Backtesting on excel is not any different. its just a form of saying "hey i dont wanna waste years of burning cash, getting my balls squeezed in order to figure out what works or what doesnt. Let me consult the data first before i get my feet wet". plain & simple. dont mystify it
So u can take 100 trades of a specific setup, blow up, & find out "holy shit there's no edge in this". or u can track the historical performance of that setup for free & see in advance that it has a 10% winrate & is only traded by Ross. It's just a matter of efficiency. ok done

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More from @team3dstocks

AllDayFaders Profile picture
5 May
And that's the goal of my tweets.. to REDUCE ur learning curve. to REDUCE the amount of tuition u have to pay to the market before things finally "click". So if I can make u learn something in ONE TWEET that took me YEARS & a ridiculous amount of money lost to learn, i did my job
u see me talk about PROVEN concepts that sound simple at first.. #vwapBoulevard, bloodbath setup, 1-3pm selloff due to filing requirements, ADF score, volume forecast etc. and u think "gee thanks. that was easy". but do u have ANY idea how long it took me to crack those things??
~17hr days (~119 hour weeks) stuck in front of screens all day, sifting through charts, reading sec filings all night, plowing through tedious, boring excel sheets. Blowing up account after account. Bc i didnt have the luxury of a mentor. A trader's learning curve is a BITCH
Read 4 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
3 May
1R is just your max loss per trade. In caveman speech, just think of the amount of money ur account is able to lose 20 times in a row before blowing up (or going under PDT). And that's for an aggressive trader. so for a $50K acct ur max loss should be no more than $1250 per trade
so with a risk/reward of 3:1 (absolute minimum 2:1), on that $50K acct, u're risking $1250 (per stopout) to make $3750 or $2500. If u take 2 trades per day of good quality setups, with decent win rates (even 50% winrate), ur account WILL grow. it's pure math.

#BearTipOfTheDay
The reason u fuckers keep blowing up is b/c u dont have a fixed 1R (max loss). one day u lose $100 another day $2000 another day $700 etc. what the fuck? imagine living in an apartment where u dont know what the rent will be. u should KNOW what ur losses will be BEFORE u take em
Read 4 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
16 Apr
The best resource is ur own trades & data. For the millionth time, here's how u create ur own ADF score (or ADS score):

✅pull out ur broker statements
✅identify ur best trades ever
✅find out the top 5 things they all had in common (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment)

then..
✅pull out ur data tracking sheet on excel
✅identify the best faders ever (reverse if u're a bull)
✅find out the top 5 things they all had in common (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment)

Compare those w/ the other 5 things ur best trades have in common.

Find the common thread
for example if u notice that YOUR best shortselling trades, & the BEST faders u've tracked, share a few common factors, over & over again, then u can use those factors to rank ALL ur future trades based on how many of those factors they share. 1 out of 5? 3 out of 5? 5 out of 5?
Read 5 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
9 Apr
Questions to ask urself when tracking data:

✅how often does this setup occur
✅at what time does it usually occur
✅what is the avg range
✅what signal/indicator usually marks the top/bottom of this setup
✅what are the fundamentals usually like on this setup?

#BearTipOfTheDay
✅what is the most reliable exit signal for this setup?
✅what is the most reliable entry signal for this setup?
✅where is the best place to place stops on this setup?
✅what do the BEST performers on this setup have in common?
✅how much volume does this setup usually trade?
✅at what time does HOD usually happen on this setup? LOD?
✅How does float size effect this setup?
✅Does this setup respect the key moving averages? if so which ones?
✅Does this setup perform better on day 1, 2 or 3?
✅Who is my competition on this setup? Dumb $ or smart $?
Read 6 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
2 Apr
Some strategies are timeless simply because human behavior doesnt change. Example jesse livermore spoke about support/resistance, trend following & relative strength/weakness etc 100 years ago, & they still work today.

Bagholders are predictable bc human behavior is predictable
Example if im stuck bagholding 1M shares of a lowfloat trash stock at a $5 avg, & the stock drops to $2, with no liquidity to bail, what am i praying to Odin? Im praying “pls lord, i dont even wanna make $ anymore. Just get this stock back up near my breakeven price & im OUT!!
Now imagine if multiple cunts are bagged near that same avg, all thinking the same. That creates a wall of sellers near $5. Lets say 3M shares total. Once the stock gets back up there weeks later,if there is not at least 3M shared worth of demand at that area, the stock is toast.
Read 5 tweets
AllDayFaders Profile picture
12 Mar
Im not an investor. long term holding is just not for me.

too many factors involved.

too many news catalysts can happen overnight to fuck up your thesis etc.

I prefer daytrading & swing trading. It's easy to "predict" what will happen in a few hrs or couple days vs months. Image
But a word of advice for those who wish to invest:

Ive tracked every single technical & fundamental factor u can think about. every single indicator.

I performed endless correlation & regression analysis models to see what was most predictive of a stock's long term performance.
The single most predictive factor was simply relative strength (or weakness) to the market, industry, and market leaders.

So Jesse Livermore was right all along, even 100 yrs later.

Stocks that outperform the market & their respective industries are the BEST stocks to invest in
Read 4 tweets

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