3/ Thornchain increased the LP cap by a trivial number of RUNE - 750k. The nonRUNE TVL increase by 14% almost immediately, and the baseline price (which is determined by the nonRUNE TVL) jumped 11%.
4/ With one trivial increase, the core value of RUNE jumped 11%. In mere hours.
Are you getting this?
Remember, Thorchain is not providing community rewards to these LPs. The current level of income is strictly from swap fees, averaging roughly 12% on the BTC, ETH and BNB LPs.
5/ BTC, ETH and BNB are the three largest LPs with $14M, 10 and 5, respectively. These are three tokens each with their own chains. What to move some BTC to put in the latest YFI yield farm? Now much easier. Want to ape into a BSC shitcoin? Now much easier.
6/ The cross-chain use case is obvious. Now it’s implemented. It creates demand to deposit into LPs.
That demand soars once the LPs receive block rewards. A planned lending product will pay interest to the LPs. Other ThorFi products will boost LP economics further.
7/ If token inflation and embedded leverage are stripped from LP yields, the Thorchain LPs will likely have the highest economic yield of any LPs available throughout crypto.
All liquidity are belong to Thorchain.
8/ Each bump in MCCN RUNE cap has material impact on its core value. The last one: +11%
Are you getting this?
When now can measure what happens when the caps are increased. And course, we want to know: will the next bump happen?
9/ There are several bugs addressed in the next update to MCCN, so the path to the upgrade will likely involve deploying new code to the testnet, then to MCCN. Observe for 24-36 hours to make sure it’s stable, then bump.
10/ Cap bumps may occur once a week for now. Any acceleration of the pace is certainly a good sign.
How big will the next bump be? Until Thorchain spins up block rewards and is closer to adding its borrow product, I believe the bumps will be on the small side.
11/ The LP yields need to be attractive after all.
Once the economic enhancements come on line and network stability is proven, then the cap increases will happen in much larger chunks. And soon enough, no cap! But until then, keep the drum beats going.
This one directly refutes then notion that circulating supply of RUNE important to a valuation framework. Sorry to those who insists it does.
2/ The idea that circulating supply matters is a TradFi idea - we value companies / stocks based on fully diluted shares outstanding.
3/ A company is worth what a company is worth regardless of the number of shares outstanding, and we should account for all the current and future shares when calculating per share values.
Notice the word “outstanding.” Sometimes, companies buy back and retire shares.
1/ Volumes on global derivative markets are some large multiple of global spot markets - maybe 20X by my SWAG reckoning. Crypto futures are wildly successful products. The options side is developing. Also, there is the whole push to DeFi.
So what about Derivative DeFi?
2/ Sounds like a reasonable investment thesis. I have bought several projects in this space and see them working hard to develop out product offerings that attract volume as scale.
3/ In the real world, derivative market places can be siloed because customers guarantee margin obligations and the brokers underwrite the customers. The promise of cash to settle up margin is sufficient.
1/ One easily overlooked quality about Thorchain’s network of LPs is that they themselves are agents in the market place (as facilitated by swappers and arb bots). The way that agency expresses itself during a market sell-off is rather interesting.
2/ Perhaps we just saw a great example in the past 48 hours.
A generic scenario: BTC sells off, and alts, because they are less liquid sell off worse. Imagine on the initial downward impulse, RUNE sell off the worst of all the significant Thorchain LP tokens.
3/ Not an unreasonable assumption because it has the smallest market cap.
The LP balances are an expression of relative price and don’t change until swaps take place.
1/ Getting many questions, even accusations, about the usefulness of baseline price when valuing $RUNE. Here is a link to a more comprehensive breakdown:
1/ This long thread is an exploration on the notion that when you LP into an AMM, you are selling convexity. At the end of a longish abstract thread, I point out some of the ways that Thorchain and its native token $RUNE attenuation this risk.
2/ In finance, convexity is a notion of acceleration. Think of like the arc of ball thrown off the roof of a building. It drops at an accelerating rate. Imagine that ball was an investment, dropping at an accelerating rate. Putting assets into an AMM LP can kinda be like that.
3/ How so?
Imagine a bitconnect:ETH AMM LP. Hah! You can’t unthink that thought. As bitconnect ponzied ever higher, LP investors would have been furious about the way that token was sold out for more ETH by the AMM. This outcome is one version of convexity risk.
1/ The best metric to value $RUNE - its baseline price - is derived from RUNE’s deterministic value. It measures how much RUNE’s current price is a consequence of the value of the non-RUNE tokens locked in Thorchain’s LPs and how much the price is a speculative premium.
2/ RUNE’s deterministic value is simply three times the non-RUNE value in the network. Why three? Because for every $1 of non-RUNE value in the network, $1 of RUNE is in the LP and at least $2 of RUNE must be bonded by the nodes. For example ..
3/ Today’s $80M of non-RUNE TVL requires $240M RUNE - the network’s deterministic value. With roughly 200M RUNE outstanding, the deterministic value per RUNE is $1.20. This simple measure misses one critical, highly determinative factor. Not all RUNE is in the network.