Share this page!

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
Twitter logo
5 May, 4 tweets, 2 min read
There is no evidence that the J&J pause last month has led to a decrease in Americans' willingness to get vaccinated
One explanation is that the share of people actually getting_vaccinated decreased (perhaps for additional reasons than the J&J pause!) but those people are telling pollsters they'll get it later
(though this has not shown up in survey data)
Yeah, what she said: The takeaway from the poll should be that overall vaccine hesitancy/opposition *has not increased* following the J&J pause, even if the raw daily number of vaccinations has slipped. /end

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with G. Elliott Morris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
4 May
The central conflict between "radical" and "moderate" Republican candidates/elected officials today is not over politics or policy, but evidently whether the party should have any commitment to free and fair elections at all
gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/the-big-lie-…
What Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, and Adam Kinzinger all have in common is not that they favor the same policies or cultural war items, but that they believe in democracy and validated election results. Yet they are a fringe in a growing anti-democracy party.
"Can the center hold?" is a tired question in American politics — but it has evolved a much more serious framing over the past six months.
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
4 May
Eh..

1) A "durable majority" might not translate into electoral victory due to minoritarian institutions. Some might say that's the whole point of the critique!
2) Don't throw out the turnout -> D gains hypothesis yet. There is a clear county-lvl correlation in 2020 pres results
In general, the 'demographics is destiny' thing has always been dumb and short-sighted, but the fact that Trump made gains with Hispanics doesn't invalidate the magnitude of their vote for Biden or lower turnout rate. The lowest propensity voters are still probably D voters
This tweet really does miss the point, though -- Republican electoral laws right now are clearly *designed* to make voting harder for minorities and city-dwellers, probably to the gain of the R party. Looking at aggregate demo patterns isn't helpful here.

Read 6 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
30 Apr
‼️‼️ We have a shiny new polling project up today that uses all of our @TheEconomist/@YouGov polls conducted since 2009 (!). It will update every week w/ new polls on Biden's approval and which issues Americans rank as the most important for gov to tackle.
economist.com/WhatAmericaThi…
These charts are particularly insightful, I think, for two reasons: (1) No other media org has so frequent a reading of what problems Americans want to be solved, and (2) it presents a bigger picture on politics which often gets overlooked in coverage of the polls.
The lead chart shows Biden's approval in the most recent poll, and offers a demographic and political profile of approvers and disapprovers. We hope this will help readers understand polls at the people-level, and maybe highlight the diversity of America's political coalitions.
Read 9 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
29 Apr
Great 538 package on the historically large (and growing) pro-Republican bias of America’s electoral institutions. The data show we are truly falling short of majoritarian democracy, in ways that make me question whether policy outcomes are really all that “representative” at all
Charts like these make me shudder at what our conceptualization of public opinion would be without robust national polling data
The issue w/ this argument is the anti-majoritarian design of our electoral system works very differently under modern factionalism, when the majority and minority have vastly different policy prefs & thwarting the majority has persistent incongruent fx
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
28 Apr
The share of adults identifying as Republican was also 25% in July 2020 and March 2019 -- and the leaned share was 38% — worse than the 40% the article claims was "worst" since 2012 — as recently as 2018.

I think this article is just factually wrong?
like, seriously... this took me 0.2 seconds to look up people news.gallup.com/poll/15370/par…
not clear to me the quoted tweet is a robust finding, as the share of GOP identifiers has rebounded (not completely) in our YouGov data — favs are down, but that doesn't matter much at the ballot box

Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
27 Apr
Yes, the Democratic Party label has become more nationalized and progressive in recent decades. But the opposite has happened for the right too. Does the GOP actually, in fact, “get off easy?” How miscalibrated are public perceptions of the parties?
I’m genuinely asking here — if someone has research, please feel invited to self-promote here. I think the conventional wisdom on “activists are hurting the Democratic brand” is in need of some hard data, esp for the comparison against Rs.
I wonder how much this is a product of a certain ideological class of journalists on Twitter seeing a bunch of (yes, often tone-deaf) activist posts and articles and conflating it with the public’s reaction to the parties. This is why we have polls, people!
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @gelliottmorris has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @gelliottmorris!

Read all threads by @gelliottmorris

:(