Afterpay traded sub $100 today, almost 40% off its highs. The APT gif brigade seems to have vanished.

Valuation still in loon down. While label solutions offered by merchants will crush margins long term. ADS is one company offering this functionality to merchants (long ADS).
"I'd like to pay with APT"

"Did you know our membership card can offer you the same BNPL terms, but you get free points you can redeem for 1% off your next purchase".

"Ok cool that works too".

BNPL is just rebranded POS consumer finance. Will be rapidly commoditized.
Merchants have every incentive to switch to offering white labeled solutions. They save on 4-7% merchant fee charged by APT; control the data collection on their customers; and share in the financing economics. They will still offer external BNPL but steer customers off it.
The retailers that succeed in doing this will have a substantial cost advantage over merchants that do not, and will be able to reinvest those savings into lower prices, increased marketing, etc. Market forces will work to squeeze out merchants relying on APT BNPL over time.

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More from @LT3000Lyall

6 May
There are two aspects to investing: return and risk.

After a long bull market investors tend to forget about risk & focus only on return. This one a key reason why value investing tends to go out of favour, because value investing places a lot of emphasis on risk reduction.
An emphasis on a margin of safety, scrupulously avoiding overpayment, and being humble/realistic about the degree to which you can foresee the future, seems unduly conservative during boom times.
However, when the shit eventually hits the fan, which given enough time it always does, certain stocks & investors loaded up in them can see losses of 50-90%, and investors are reminded about the importance of risk. Value investing tends to then come back in vogue.
Read 8 tweets
6 May
Great research on NEA.

This is why for most companies, profits are important. Profits validate the narrative management is spinning - they prove the coy has a product customers are willing to pay for in a competitive marketplace, that is priced above the cost of provisioning it.
Anyone can grow a company by throwing money around and signing on customers at a loss, hoping to upsell them later. It's called buying market share. It's as old as capitalism. Only in rare situations is profitless growth a sign anything of genuine value is being created/exists.
If you're willing to lose more money than your competitors, you will grow/take share. But it's not a sustainable competitive advantage to have price < cost. It's a fake competitive advantage that leads to fake/false price signals in the marketplace.
Read 4 tweets
5 May
The world's total wind resources are 100TWy/y. Harvesting 100% of it would require we stop all wind blowing on earth (converting it to rotating wind blades) - not remotely possible. Global energy use is currently 19TWy/y, and will likely double in the next 30-50yrs.
You can therefore forget powering the world's economy purely with wind. Hydro resources are limited to 3.5 TWy/y, and are mostly already exploited. Anyone that suggests tidal as a possible solution - at just 0.3 TWy/y - knows laughably little about energy economics.
Energy resources across fossil fuels & uranium above are understated as they are only currently known/proved reserves & resources. We will find a lot more if and when there is a need and financial incentive to do so. But they will eventually run out/EROI will fall below 1x.
Read 8 tweets
2 May
How many people have given any thought to fact that credentialed climate scientists need climate change to be a thing to make a living.

For them to believe otherwise would be like a psychologist arguing there are no psychological disorders and hence no need for psychologists.
They have already self-selected into a profession - presumably because they are already environmentally conscious - and already have huge sunk costs in terms of their selected career path. They are pre-committed to a designated conclusion irrespective of the facts & evidence.
Stop being cowed by degrees. Anyone can get a degree. It really isn't very difficult. It doesn't mean you are right. It doesn't mean you're not emotional, political, or biased. Quality varies. Scientists argue with each other. Learn some science and it will demystify it for you.
Read 4 tweets
1 May
The effect of the covid-19 pandemic is detectable in GNW's long term care & life insurance mortality data.

For politicized topics where there is rampant misinformation, I always look for hard to fake real world data/evidence. Cuts through the bullshit.
Want to know whether the narrative around climate change is actually leading to an increase in extreme weather, for eg? Look at the cost of catastrophic insurance. Hard to fake. Lots of statistics can be manipulated. Some of them can't.
Don't focus on "studies" done by government bodies, academics, and NGOs. They are highly susceptible to bias, politicization & misinterpretation. Instead focus on data/evidence that emanates from real world experience that is hard to fake.
Read 4 tweets
29 Apr
This is a masterclass in how to bullshit about your performance numbers.

Translation: We ill-advisedly went into cash 12mths ago, underperformed a lot, and 6mths ago decided to jump back into market. We've recovered a tiny bit of what that ill-fated decision to cash up cost us. Image
I sniffed bullshit as soon as I read it. Dug up their numbers and sure enough: Image
I'm not going to give someone a hard time for making mistakes or underperforming. Investing is not easy and to err is human. But if you make mistakes and print bad numbers you really need to be upfront & transparent about it. Trying to bullshit & mislead people is not ok.
Read 4 tweets

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