As expected, no change in Bank of England rates or QE target - but MPC has decided to slow the rate of its asset purchases so they stretch out to the end of the year
MPC now sees UK economy running 0.5% of GDP above capacity by Q2 2022 (up from 0.25% previously) - a hawkish signal
Sterling up in wake of MPC forecast - suggests a hawkish interpretation
This (pink line) shows the improved GDP growth forecast since February's projection from the Bank
Biggest forecasting shift since February is the MPC's unemployment projection
Previously the Bank projected a 7.7% jobless rate in Q2 2021 - now it expects a peak of just 5.2% this year
...striking difference between the market implied path of interest rates now relative to February's MPC report - traders seem to have now buried expectations of negative interest rates
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In the wake of the Bank of England’s latest forecasts the media is full of talk of an economic “boom”.
💥💵📈
One headline this morning even calls it a *supersonic* boom.
What to make of that kind of talk?
A thread…🧵
...It’s true GDP growth of 7.25%, the Bank's latest forecast for 2021, would be the largest calendar year expansion since 1941 when Britain was still scaling up production to fight the Nazi menace...2/
...But, as we shouldn’t need reminding, this follows the worst year for the economy in three centuries in 2020...3/
A thread on the real world costs of government not being transparent.
🧵🦞
Last year the Shellfish Association of Great Britain @SAGB asked @DefraGovUK to provide full details of what it had been told by the EU about permissability of live exports to the bloc post-Brexit..1/
...Defra refused to pass on the details directly.
Instead, it gave a summary to the industry which turns out to have been incorrect.
Result: large quantities of live shellfish not being allowed into EU this year at huge cost to firms...2/
...Defra blames the EU for not being clear/covertly changing the rules.
The EU blames Defra for minsinterpreting the information it was given...3/
Worth noting that the Biden Administration's policy on vaccines, as spelled out in his Congress speech on Wednesday, is almost literally "America first"...
...we can debate about whether the EU and UK are guilty of vaccine nationalism but there's really no question that, whether it's right or wrong, that's what we're seeing in the US.
...On this subject, this new @BBCTheInquiry episode by @kavpuri suggests one of the roots of the crisis afflicting India is the Delhi government relying *only* on domestic vaccine production - and failing to order further supplies from overseas...👇 bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3…
...And the official trade figures do suggest a reasonably strong bounce back of exports in overall manufacturing exports in February after the plunge in January.