As expected, no change in Bank of England rates or QE target - but MPC has decided to slow the rate of its asset purchases so they stretch out to the end of the year

bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/fi…
MPC now sees UK economy running 0.5% of GDP above capacity by Q2 2022 (up from 0.25% previously) - a hawkish signal
Sterling up in wake of MPC forecast - suggests a hawkish interpretation
This (pink line) shows the improved GDP growth forecast since February's projection from the Bank
Biggest forecasting shift since February is the MPC's unemployment projection

Previously the Bank projected a 7.7% jobless rate in Q2 2021 - now it expects a peak of just 5.2% this year
...striking difference between the market implied path of interest rates now relative to February's MPC report - traders seem to have now buried expectations of negative interest rates

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More from @BenChu_

7 May
In the wake of the Bank of England’s latest forecasts the media is full of talk of an economic “boom”.

💥💵📈

One headline this morning even calls it a *supersonic* boom.

What to make of that kind of talk?

A thread…🧵
...It’s true GDP growth of 7.25%, the Bank's latest forecast for 2021, would be the largest calendar year expansion since 1941 when Britain was still scaling up production to fight the Nazi menace...2/ Image
...But, as we shouldn’t need reminding, this follows the worst year for the economy in three centuries in 2020...3/ Image
Read 17 tweets
5 May
Biden Administration *is* backing vaccine patent waivers

Announcement here 👇
..It's a bold move - and many of the experts I spoke to last week were doubtful it would happen.

But will it actually help overcome the pandemic?

Thread here lays out the arguments for and against 👇

...Vaccine makers' shares have taken a plunge in the wake of the announcement
Read 4 tweets
4 May
Achieving net zero global carbon emissions by 2050 will undoubtedly be a vast challenge.

🌏🏭

Yet there's also a bit of a danger that we assume it's unachievable given our current economic model or rates of population growth.

A brief thread...🧵
...Pessimism is perhaps natural when you look at the global trajectory of emissions.

Despite the landmark summits and the big pledges, global emissions have continued to rise... Image
...and so has the size of the global population... Image
Read 9 tweets
30 Apr
A thread on the real world costs of government not being transparent.

🧵🦞

Last year the Shellfish Association of Great Britain @SAGB asked @DefraGovUK to provide full details of what it had been told by the EU about permissability of live exports to the bloc post-Brexit..1/
...Defra refused to pass on the details directly.

Instead, it gave a summary to the industry which turns out to have been incorrect.

Result: large quantities of live shellfish not being allowed into EU this year at huge cost to firms...2/
...Defra blames the EU for not being clear/covertly changing the rules.

The EU blames Defra for minsinterpreting the information it was given...3/
Read 5 tweets
29 Apr
Worth noting that the Biden Administration's policy on vaccines, as spelled out in his Congress speech on Wednesday, is almost literally "America first"...

"Every American will have access before"...👇

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… Image
...we can debate about whether the EU and UK are guilty of vaccine nationalism but there's really no question that, whether it's right or wrong, that's what we're seeing in the US.

Previous thread here elaborates 👇

...On this subject, this new @BBCTheInquiry episode by @kavpuri suggests one of the roots of the crisis afflicting India is the Delhi government relying *only* on domestic vaccine production - and failing to order further supplies from overseas...👇
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3…
Read 4 tweets
18 Apr
How are UK manufacturing exporters coping with Brexit?

🪛📦🏭🧑‍🏭🚚🇬🇧🇪🇺

A thread...
....We had the bullish case from one of the UK’s most famous manufacturing entrepreneurs, Sir James Dyson, this week.

"We've got our freedom...“ he told the BBC...2/

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
...And the official trade figures do suggest a reasonably strong bounce back of exports in overall manufacturing exports in February after the plunge in January.

So is all well? In a word: no....3/

ons.gov.uk/economy/nation…
Read 17 tweets

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