Thread by @JuliusRuechel

Where are outbreaks happening in Canada?

How dangerous are they in each setting?

What does it tell us about protecting the vulnerable?

What does it tell us about gyms, schools, restaurants, and living life in general?

A thread:
1/

The largest outbreaks, based on cases/outbreak, are community spread (i.e. there is less chance of big outbreaks in schools, restaurants, gyms & even LTC than just living life in general). These facilities do not produce more CASES than living life in general.
2/

Setting may not impact cases, but does impact deaths. Vulnerable people (weak immunity, pre-existing conditions) are in LTC & hospitals. Outbreaks elsewhere produce cases but almost no deaths

Outbreaks in schools, gyms, restaurants or community at large are largely irrelevant
3/

Over 1/2 of "cases" & 97% of deaths linked outbreaks are in two settings: LTC & hospitals/healthcare. That's where vulnerable people hang out. This is a virus that preys on ppl with pre-existing conditions & weak immune systems. The rest of the population faces almost NO risk.
4/

So, not all outbreaks are created equal. Outbreaks in LTC & hospitals produce⬆️deaths among those infected. Outbreaks in a gym, restaurant, or school produces lots of cases, but⬇️deaths - few vulnerable ppl there, so cases in these settings lead to herd immunity not fatalities
5/

Moral of the story is: fear about outbreaks is a vicious misrepresentation of risk. Not all outbreaks are created equal. Not all cases pose equal risk. The underlying vulnerability of individuals matters. Most vulnerable ppl are found in very specific settings: LTC & hospitals
6/

End the lockdowns. Protect the vulnerable. Stop creating panic. Respect people's rights. Stop the propaganda and start doing science again.

7/

All data sourced from🇨🇦COVID-19 weekly epidemiology report (thank you @Vidallena_ & @germaneshane )

Outbreaks seem to be defined as more than one case linked in time and location/event. Individual cases not linked are not included in this data report.
8/
canada.ca/content/dam/ph…

13,789 of 24,450 deaths linked to outbreaks. Another 10,661 are thus unaccounted for (not linked to outbreaks). What setting did these deaths (& cases) occur in? It would be nice to know! If you have access to that data, please send it to me! Wouldn't it be nice if...
9/

...Health🇨🇦provided that transparency?

I.e. how many of those 10,661✝️are statistical creations by ON matching death certificates to (+)PCR results? How many✝️not linked to outbreaks nonetheless occured in LTC & hospitals?

Science & democracy depend on transparency.
10/end