Thread by @Christiano92

With @Tesla CJ Moore, Director of Autopilot saying "Elon’s tweet does not match engineering reality". Here's Elon's tweets/statement about #FSD $TSLA

Dec 2015: "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."

January 2016: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY"

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920

June 2016: "I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year"

theguardian.com/technology/201…

Jan 23rd 2017: At what point will Full Self-Driving Capability features noticeably depart from? Elon says: "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely"

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768

March 2017: "I think that [you will be able to fall asleep in a tesla] is about two years"
ted.com/talks/elon_mus…

May 7 2017: Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo? Elon says: "Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/866482406160609280

March 2018: "I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person."

SXSW 2018

Nov 15, 2018: "Probably technically be able to [self deliver Teslas to customers doors] in about a year then its up to the regulators"

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1063123659290595328

Jan 30 2019: "We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that."

Feb 19 2019: "We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark! ....continued

...It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year"
ark-invest.com/research/podca…

April 12th 2019 : "I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months.... I think this was all really going to be swept, I mean, the system is improving so much, so fast, that this is going to be a moot point very soon....continued

....No, in fact, I think it will become very, very quickly, maybe and towards the end this year, but I say, I'd be shocked if not next year, at the latest that having the person, having human intervene will decrease safety. DECREASE!"

April 22nd 2019: "We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year."

April 22nd 2019: "We expect to have the first operating robot taxi next year with no one in them! One million robot taxis!"

Autonomy Day

May 9th 2019: "We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too"

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1126611407984779264

April 12th 2020: "Robotaxis release/deployment... Functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1249210220200550405

April 29th 2020: "we could see robotaxis in operation with the network fleet next year, not in all markets but in some."
teslarati.com/elon-musk-talk…

July 08, 2020: “I’m extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly, I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy. I think-I remain confident that....continued

....we will have the basic functionality for level 5 autonomy complete this year, There are no fundamental challenges remaining. There are many small problems. And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.”
WAIC 2020

Dec 1, 2020: “I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year.”

Axel Springer Award

December 5th 2020: "I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%"
businessinsider.com/elon-musk-inte…

Jan 1, 2021: "Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1345208391958888448

Jan 27, 2021: Tesla Full Self-Driving this year will be "at least 100% safer than a human driver"