James Johnson Profile picture
May 7, 2021 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
*NEW: @JLPartnersPolls on why people voted the way they did, for @Channel4News*

The top reason given for not voting Labour on Thursday was Keir Starmer’s leadership. This was followed by not agreeing with Labour’s policies, or worrying that they did not have any at all. (1/9)
A representative sample of 1,741 adults in England were asked just before & on Polling Day the main reason they voted.

Asked why they did not vote Labour, the top words written were “policies”, “Starmer”, “leader” and people saying they “don’t trust” the party. (2/9)
Concerns about Starmer focus on him being weak, opportunistic, and not standing for anything.

Here is a representative selection of the things they said. (3/9)
Of those who voted Lab in 2019, but voted for other parties yesterday, 17% say they did so to vote tactically. But 16% also cite Starmer's leadership.

A defector to the Greens said “Keir Starmer is a weak leader”. A 29-year old former Lab voter said “they have no policies” (4/9)
Looking at why people voted Conservative, competence is key.

Voters said they voted for them because they had done a good job, had performed well during the pandemic, and that they like Boris Johnson. (5/9)
Those who did vote Labour did so because they say the party shares their values, or that they are the only way to beat the Conservatives.

Only 1% said it was because they like Keir Starmer. (6/9)
Finally, looking at those who voted for smaller parties and independents, the top reason was because of a good candidate locally.

The environment, as well as dissatisfaction with the main parties, also saw voters going over to the Greens. (7/9)
This might suggest that support for smaller parties could go down at a future general election, if Labour can squeeze them.

But there is no doubt that Labour’s brand is besieged from every angle. (8/9)
They are seen as divided, bad for the economy, lacking policies, not left enough for the Left and too left for the Right – & the leadership is their biggest drawback.

Tune into @channel4news now for @GaryGibbonC4 package - and full results here: jlpartners.co.uk/local-elections (9/9)

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More from @jamesjohnson252

Mar 14, 2023
NEW @JLPartnersPolls of the Red Wall for @Channel4News.

On current numbers, the Conservatives would lose all of their seats in the Red Wall.

BUT – Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings are surging. What's going on? Deep dive thread… (1/18)
First on voting intention. It’s a dire picture for the Tories.

Labour are on 53% and the Conservatives are on 28%, a 25-point lead for Labour compared to a 9 point lead for the Tories in 2019.

Labour lead with every age group apart from those over 66. (2/18)
Here’s how the votes have flowed since 2019. Same picture as the public polls: the majority have gone to ‘Don’t Know’, and 15% have switched directly to Labour.

Labour largely holds its 2019 vote and picks up some 2019 Lib Dems too. (3/18)
Read 20 tweets
Mar 13, 2023
New @IpsosUK figures (fieldwork post-immigration announcement):

Who do you trust most to make it harder to enter the country illegally?
Conservatives: 40% (+10)
Labour: 31% (-)

Amongst 2019 Conservatives:
Conservatives: 56% (+19)
Labour: 40% (-19)

(1/4)
Who do you trust most to have the right immigration policies?
Conservatives: 36% (+8)
Labour: 35% (-1)

Amongst 2019 Conservatives:
Conservatives: 61% (+24)
Labour: 34% (-24)

(2/4)
Do you think the government will do a good or bad job... on passing new laws to stop small boat crossings?

Good job: 32% (+9)
Bad job: 36% (-8)

... on making sure that people who come to the UK illegally are detained and removed?

Good job: 29% (+11)
Bad job: 39% (-11)

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Jul 7, 2022
NEW: @JLPartnersPolls survey of the general public, conducted yesterday and this morning.

Asked to choose between potential Tory candidates and Keir Starmer, Starmer leads all of them apart from Rishi Sunak. (1/4)
Full figures here. People will tune in more now the contest gets underway and minds may change, but this is the starting position.

Note that the levels of Don't Knows do not vary as much as one might expect, all within the range of 25%-34%. (2/4)
We also asked people their top choice of PM from the list of potential candidates:

Rishi Sunak: 14%
Sajid Javid: 7%
Jeremy Hunt: 7%
Liz Truss: 4%
Ben Wallace: 4%
Michael Gove: 3%
Priti Patel: 3%
Penny Mordaunt: 3%
Nadhim Zahawi: 2%
Tom Tugendhat: 2%
Don't know: 49%

(3/4)
Read 5 tweets
Jun 13, 2022
NEW @JLPartnersPolls in today’s @thesun

We asked a nationally representative sample of 2,000 people what they think about Keir Starmer.

Of all responses, 50% were negative, 24% neutral, 26% positive. The words most commonly used are below.
More analysis in the piece by @kateferguson4

Voters don’t feel Starmer has a vision for the future - but they are so bored by him in focus groups that they struggle to get animated by negative stories about the Labour leader (like beergate) either.

thesun.co.uk/news/18865184/…
And however bad the poll may seem for Starmer, at the moment all that matters is who is least unpopular. Here is the same exercise for Boris Johnson back in April. (3/3)
Read 4 tweets
Jun 9, 2022
NEW: @timesradio focus group with people who voted Conservative for the first time in 2019 in Wakefield - with @kekstcnc.

Ahead of the by-election, disaffection, discontent and distrust are the words that sum their views up.

Quick thread (warning: it's not a cheery one) (1/12)
Firstly in the immediate wake of the confidence vote in Boris Johnson, "disappointed" was the word every voter used.

All but one thought Johnson should now resign, with anger still there on partygate. Here are the words of Mandy (voted Conservative 2019) 2
Criticism is moving from just the PM to the wider Party.

People said that the fact the Conservatives had voted confidence in Boris made them feel like the Party didn't care about them.

In the words of Kelly, "the fact nothing happened to him, shows how the government is run". 3
Read 13 tweets
Jun 4, 2022
NEW @JLPartnersPolls in @thesundaytimes with @ShippersUnbound

Labour have a 20-point lead over the Conservatives in the Red Wall seat of Wakefield, ahead of the by-election later this month

The main reason given for voting Labour is Boris Johnson

Thread on the details. (1/10)
First, here’s the state of play.

Labour are on 48%, up 8 points on 2019. The Conservatives are on 28%, down 19 points. (2/10)
Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.

The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)
Read 10 tweets

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