braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note… First: Best-case—i.e., most optimistic scenario for employment—is employment corresponding to a “true” unemployment rate of 2.5% in 2023 with core inflation at 2.75%/year. That is enough to get inflation expectations up to the Fed’s target of... 1/
... 2.5%/year on a CPI basis. That is not enough for anyone reasonable to claim that an ever-upward inflationary spiral is on the way. The definition of “stagflation” is a world in which expectations are anchored on the belief that inflation is going to rise over time... 2/
...hence an unemployment rate greater than the natural rate is required in order to hold inflation steady. That does not seem to be the world we are headed for in the optimistic scenario. And that stagflation equilibrium is much further away in the non-optimistic scenarios... 3/
...Laurence Ball & al.: US Inflation: Set for Take-Off?: ’How high is the ongoing US fiscal expansion likely to push inflation? This column presents new evidence that underlying (weighted median) CPI inflation has so far steadily declined since the start of the COVID–19... 4/
... crisis, broadly as predicted by its historical Phillips curve relation. If the ongoing fiscal expansion reduces unemployment to 1.5–3.5%, as some predict, underlying inflation could rise to about 2.5–3% by 2023. If the fiscal expansion is temporary and monetary policy... 5/
... remains clearly communicated and decisive, there is little risk of a 1960s-type inflationary spiral… LINK: <voxeu.org/article/us-inf…> 6/END

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More from @delong

12 May
Apropos of:

Charlie Jane Anders: What Samuel Johnson Can Teach Us About Separating Art from the Artist: ‘[Johnson: "]Of Cowley… he in reality was in love but once, and then never had resolution to tell his passion...

<buttondown.email/charliejane/ar…> 1/
...This consideration cannot but abate, in some measure, the reader’s esteem for the work and the author…

I present a section from Noah Smith's & my Hexapodia XIII, with the highly estimable Cory Doctorow, also talking about the life and death of the author and the sub-... 2/
...Turing imago instantiations of the author that we absorbed readers cannot help but run on our wetware:

<braddelong.substack.com/p/podcast-hexa…>

Brad: Well, we know this is a problem. When one is dealing with an author whose work one has read a lot of—by... 3/
Read 11 tweets
11 May
braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…

First: Here we see a striking difference between Paul Krugman and Larry Summers. Krugman sees models as intuition pumps—and believes strongly, very strongly, that if you cannot make a simple model of it, it is probably wrong. Summers believes that... 1/
...our models are, at best, filing systems (and at worst tools for misleading the unwary)—and that the right way to think about the economy is as, in some way, a two-state system, with expansion being one state and recession the other, so that you cannot halt an expansion... 2/
...without tipping the economy fully into recession.... My take? Of the last six tightening cycles, three have been followed by demand-shock recessions within two years of the tightening cycle’s end. I interpret this as: you gotta halt the tightening before you overdo it... 3/
Read 7 tweets
10 May
braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note… First: A Snippet from a Dialogue: Anti-Anti Tory Little Englandism:

Kephalos: I am pretty sure that—within the population of Great Britain—the Tories are a marked minority. And—yet—they could easily be governing with a pretty comfortable margin for... 1/
...the next 10 years. It is kind of unnerving how a minority faction has—more or less—run the joint ever since “the strange death of Liberal England”. Even when Blair and Gordon were PMs—they still had to triangulate. And—perhaps the strangest thing of all—the... 2/
...Conservatives have run the joint, but everyone else gets blamed for (i) haphazard retreat from Empire and (ii) relative economic decline. Its almost as if the Conservative are “alcoholic Daddy” who everyone is supposed to clean up after. Thrasymakhos: “Almost”? The... 3/
Read 7 tweets
7 May
Today's thread-of-thread:

To @causalinf: My great-grandfather Roland Greene Usher found it bitter every day when he awoke to remember that he was but a Professor at Washington University in St. Louis, while his brother Abbott Payson Usher was not only at Harvard but had an... 1/
... office **inside** Widener...<>

To: @snitstwits While I strongly defend the need for þis to be said, I strongly oppose David Brooks's placing himself at þe front of þe parade. He built a whole f---ing career on "I'm all right, Jack! Pull up þe... 2/
...ladder!!", and made a mighty contribution to breaking America's web of social trust <>... 3/
Read 10 tweets
6 May
Today's thread-of-thread: 2021-05-05 We:

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2021–05–05 We: Joe Biden: ’I think they’re going to write about this point in history… about whether or not democracy can function in the 21st century. Not a joke <braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…> 1/
PROJECT SYNDICATE: Is þe US Economy Recovering or Overheating?: ‘An absence of price increases would reflect an economy struggling… <braddelong.substack.com/p/project-synd…>

PODCAST: Hexapodia XIII: “Mandated Interoperability”: Cory Doctorow is AWESOME!<braddelong.substack.com/p/podcast-hexa…> 2/
BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2021–05–02 Suy: Zeynep Tufekci… ’Sociologically, I am shaken… <braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…>

HOISTED FROM ÞE ARCHIVES: Five Books on þe Classical Economists (2020–09–29): They were an eclectic bunch...<braddelong.substack.com/p/hoisted-from…> 3/
Read 7 tweets
4 May
braddelong.substack.com/p/podcast-hexa…

PODCAST: Hexapodia XIII: "Mandated Interoperability": We Can't Make It Work, or Can We? With Cory Doctorow; Noah Smith & Brad DeLong's 30:00 < Weekly Podcast < 60:00: Key Insights: (1) Cory Doctorow is AWESOME! (2) It is depressing. We once, with... 1/
...the creation of the market economy, got interoperability right. But now the political economy blocks us from there being any obvious path to an equivalent lucky historical accident in our future. (3) The problems in our society are not diametrically opposed: Addressing... 2/
...the problems of one thing doesn't necessarily create equal and opposite problems on the other side—but it does change the trade-offs, and so things become very complex and very difficult to solve. (4) Always keep a trash bag in your car. (5) Hexapodia!

References... 3/
Read 7 tweets

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