Kephalos: I am pretty sure that—within the population of Great Britain—the Tories are a marked minority. And—yet—they could easily be governing with a pretty comfortable margin for... 1/
...the next 10 years. It is kind of unnerving how a minority faction has—more or less—run the joint ever since “the strange death of Liberal England”. Even when Blair and Gordon were PMs—they still had to triangulate. And—perhaps the strangest thing of all—the... 2/
...Conservatives have run the joint, but everyone else gets blamed for (i) haphazard retreat from Empire and (ii) relative economic decline. Its almost as if the Conservative are “alcoholic Daddy” who everyone is supposed to clean up after. Thrasymakhos: “Almost”? The... 3/
...Tories are a minority in Great Britain. There is, however, a durable majority that would rather see the Tories rule than Labour rule. They would like somebody else—not, of course, them; heavens forbid!—to rid them of feather-bedding union members, officious bureaucrats... 4/
...& uppity women; and ensure that the Pakies are kept in their place. This majority can be overcome when Labour’s leadership persuades the electorate that it is really a centrist Liberal Party in disguise. The problem is that the base and the cadres very strongly... 5/
disagree with this “New Labour” position. And Blair and Brown were incapable of constructing any alternative organizational base. Otherwise, no matter how badly the Tories cock it up, they are not enablers of feather-bedding union members, officious bureaucrats, uppity... 6/
... women, and Pakies… Ask not, American Democrats, for whom the bell tolls… 7//END
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Noah Smith & Brad DeLong's 30:00 < [Length of Weekly Podcast] < 60:00. Key Insights: (1) Economic arguments against higher taxes that may have been somewhat plausible back in the days of 70% or so maximum individual and 40% or so maximum capital... 1/
... gains tax rates simply do not apply now.
(2) Right-wing parties that don't think they can credibly make the argument that cosseting their core constituencies is necessary for rapid economic growth search for some non-economic cleavage in which the rich and the right-... 2/
...thinking poor, or the right-colored poor, can be on one side and the people who seek a fairer and more equal distribution of income and higher taxes on the rich can be put on the other—let's all yell about critical race theory, and maybe they won't pay attention to the... 3/
Charlie Jane Anders: What Samuel Johnson Can Teach Us About Separating Art from the Artist: ‘[Johnson: "]Of Cowley… he in reality was in love but once, and then never had resolution to tell his passion...
...This consideration cannot but abate, in some measure, the reader’s esteem for the work and the author…
I present a section from Noah Smith's & my Hexapodia XIII, with the highly estimable Cory Doctorow, also talking about the life and death of the author and the sub-... 2/
...Turing imago instantiations of the author that we absorbed readers cannot help but run on our wetware:
First: Here we see a striking difference between Paul Krugman and Larry Summers. Krugman sees models as intuition pumps—and believes strongly, very strongly, that if you cannot make a simple model of it, it is probably wrong. Summers believes that... 1/
...our models are, at best, filing systems (and at worst tools for misleading the unwary)—and that the right way to think about the economy is as, in some way, a two-state system, with expansion being one state and recession the other, so that you cannot halt an expansion... 2/
...without tipping the economy fully into recession.... My take? Of the last six tightening cycles, three have been followed by demand-shock recessions within two years of the tightening cycle’s end. I interpret this as: you gotta halt the tightening before you overdo it... 3/
braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note… First: Best-case—i.e., most optimistic scenario for employment—is employment corresponding to a “true” unemployment rate of 2.5% in 2023 with core inflation at 2.75%/year. That is enough to get inflation expectations up to the Fed’s target of... 1/
... 2.5%/year on a CPI basis. That is not enough for anyone reasonable to claim that an ever-upward inflationary spiral is on the way. The definition of “stagflation” is a world in which expectations are anchored on the belief that inflation is going to rise over time... 2/
...hence an unemployment rate greater than the natural rate is required in order to hold inflation steady. That does not seem to be the world we are headed for in the optimistic scenario. And that stagflation equilibrium is much further away in the non-optimistic scenarios... 3/
To @causalinf: My great-grandfather Roland Greene Usher found it bitter every day when he awoke to remember that he was but a Professor at Washington University in St. Louis, while his brother Abbott Payson Usher was not only at Harvard but had an... 1/
To: @snitstwits While I strongly defend the need for þis to be said, I strongly oppose David Brooks's placing himself at þe front of þe parade. He built a whole f---ing career on "I'm all right, Jack! Pull up þe... 2/
...ladder!!", and made a mighty contribution to breaking America's web of social trust <
BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2021–05–05 We: Joe Biden: ’I think they’re going to write about this point in history… about whether or not democracy can function in the 21st century. Not a joke <braddelong.substack.com/p/briefly-note…> 1/
PROJECT SYNDICATE: Is þe US Economy Recovering or Overheating?: ‘An absence of price increases would reflect an economy struggling… <braddelong.substack.com/p/project-synd…>