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TheValuesVoter

10 May, 20 tweets, 7 min read

One of the reasons Trump the 2020 Election is because his margins decreased in the suburbs. Which has been a pattern in several states over multiple elections. We can tell this from exit polls. Let's take a quick look at some of them (links provided so you can check yourself).

Arizona - GOP Margins among Suburban Voters

2004 - Bush won 59-39 (+20)
2008 - McCain won 60-38 (+22)
2012 - Romney won 60-39 (+21)
2016 - Trump won 55-39 (+16)
2012 - Trump won 55-45 (+10)

Links:
cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/…
nytimes.com/elections/2008…
nytimes.com/elections/2012…
cnn.com/election/2016/…
cnn.com/election/2020/…

Georgia - GOP margin among Suburban Voters (I can't find exit poll data for 2012)

2004 - Bush wins 61-39 (+22)
2008 - McCain wins 52-47 (+5)
2012 - No Data
2016 - Trump wins 51-46 (+5)
2020 - Trump wins 51-48 (+3)

Links:
cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/…
nytimes.com/elections/2008…
cnn.com/election/2016/…
cnn.com/election/2020/…

Michigan - GOP margin among Suburban Voters (no data for 2012)

2004 - Bush wins 54-45 (+9)
2008 - McCain loses 45-52 (-7)
2012 - No Data
2016 - Trump wins 53-42 (+11)
2020 - Trump wins 51-48 (+3)

Links
cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/…
nytimes.com/elections/2008…
cnn.com/election/2016/…
cnn.com/election/2020/…

Pennsylvania - GOP margins among Suburban Voters

2004 - Bush won 52-47 (+5)
2008 - McCain lost 49-50 (-1)
2012 - Romney won 55-44 (+11)
2016 - Trump won 52-44 (+8)
2020 - Trump won 51-48 (+3)

Links
cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/…
nytimes.com/elections/2008…
nytimes.com/elections/2012…
cnn.com/election/2016/…
cnn.com/election/2020/…

Wisconsin - GOP margins among Suburban Voters

2004 - Bush wins 52-47 (+5)
2008 - McCain loses 47-53 (-6)
2012 - Romney wins 52-47 (+5)
2016 - Trump wins 55-39 (+16)
2020 - Trump wins 55-43 (+12)

Links
cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/…
nytimes.com/elections/2008…
nytimes.com/elections/2012…
cnn.com/election/2016/…
cnn.com/election/2020/…

In all of the five states that flipped from red to blue in 2020, Trump lost margin with suburban voters. He still won suburban voters. But not by as much as he won them in 2016. In at least two of these states (Arizona and Pennsylvania), the suburbs were sliding even before Trump

In Arizona, voters from urban areas made up about the same percentage of the electorate according to Exit Polls as suburban voters did (46%). But Biden won by more in urban areas (14 points) than Trump did in suburban areas (10 points).

Rural voters in Arizona, who made up not a big chunk of the vote in 2020, went for Trump. But not quite overwhelmingly (by 14 points).

And so it was close. But Biden prevailed. And Arizona suburbs have been shifting toward the Dems consistently since after the 2008 election.

I'm going to come back to this tomorrow and I'll fill in more details.

Sorry - that last one should be 2020.

States in which the Trump did worse among suburban voters in 2020 than he did in 2016 according to exit polls (which have nothing to voting machines or election boards, this is an independent piece of data):

Arizona
Colorado
Georgia
Iowa
Maine
Michigan
New Hampshire
New York

North Carolina
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
Texas
Virginia
Wisconsin

(This list, of course, includes the five states that Biden flipped along with several others. Trump's overall margins decreased in all of these states relative to 2016).

States in which Trump had a lower margin with suburban voters in 2020, than either Trump in 2016 or Romney in 2012:

Arizona
(+21 in 2012 to +16 in 2016 to +10 in 2020)

New Hampshire
(+1 in 2012 to +0 in 2016 to -2 in 2020)

Pennsylvania
(+11 in 2012 to +8 in 2016 to +3 in 2020)

State in which Trump had a lower margin with suburban voters in 2020 than either:

- Trump himself got in 2016
- Romney got in 2012
- McCain got in 2008

Arizona
(+22 in 2008 to +21 in 2012 to +16 in 2016 to +10 in 2020)

But, sure, check the ballots for bamboo.

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10 May

The biggest immediate danger the GOP faces is not seeing more people of color voting. Their biggest risk is white voters who have a problem with Trump and with the GOP's racism. Which is why you'll be seeing Tim Scott a lot ("Hi! My name is Tim! And the GOP is not racist!")

If you look at the states that have exit polling available for the last three Presidential elections, you'll notice things about the GOP's performance with whites.

NOTE: this has NOTHING to do with the NUMBER of white voters (sorry, Tucker Carlson - no new show idea tonight).

This has only to do with the MARGINS by which GOP Presidential candidates have won or lost white voters in Presidential elections according to exit polls.

In these states, the GOP has done worse, margin-wise, among whites in 2020 than in 2016 and worse in 2016 than in 2012.

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The US States that have been among the states with the ten worst voter participation rates in the last four Presidential Elections:

Arkansas (was ranked #48 in 2008, #46 in 2012, #45 in 2016 and #49 in 2020).

Hawaii (#50 in 2008, #50 in 2012, #50 in 2016 and #47 in 2020).

Oklahoma (#46 in 2008, #48 in 2012, #46 in 2016 and #50 in 2020).

Tennessee (#42 in 2008, #45 in 2012, #48 in 2016 and #46 in 2020).

Texas (#47 in 2008, #47 in 2012, #47 in 2016 and #44 in 2020).

West Virginia (#49 in 2008, #49 in 2012, #49 in 2016 and #47 in 2020).

@ElectProject

All of this data can be confirmed by looking at the data on electproject.org.
@ElectProject

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Let’s say that America was a room of 100 people. 25 of those people would be Republicans. 32 Democrats. And 41 Independents.

news.gallup.com/poll/15370/par…

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Lying and false prophecy. God told us this would happen.

newsweek.com/pastor-johnny-…

“But the [Holy] Spirit explicitly and unmistakably declares that in later times some will turn away from the faith, paying attention instead to deceitful and seductive spirits and doctrines of demons, [misled] by the hypocrisy of liars ...

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A lot of us are familiar with that scary Scripture in Matthew 7:21-23.

“‘Not everyone who says to Me, ‘Lord, Lord,’ will enter the kingdom of heaven, but only he who does the will of My Father who is in heaven. Many will say to Me on that day [when I judge them], ‘Lord, Lord, have we not prophesied in Your name, and driven out demons in Your name,

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(Matthew 7:21-23, Amplified)

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